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NBA Early Season Surprises

by: Jim Feist

by Jim Feist

Preseason prognosticators and handicapping analysis focuses in on what they expect to happen, based on the draft and offseason moves, but there are always surprises at the start of each season. Here's a look at some of the early NBA surprises, good, bad and ugly.

Hawks: Didn't we see this athletic young team taking Boston to seven games in the playoffs? That was three years ago. They are still young and athletic – and getting better, particularly on the road, winning 7 of their first 9 road contests.
On sheer depth and talent alone you can see why this team is playing so well: Josh Smith, Marvin Williams and Al Horford in the frontcourt, Jamal Crawford, Joe Johnson and Mike Bibby in the backcourt. This team is loaded with offensive options (15th in the NBA in points), but what is most impressive is the defense, 10th in points allowed and just 33% shooting beyond the arc, sixth in the league. That partly explains a recent 6-3 run under the total.

Thunder: No Kevin Durant? No Jeff Green? No problem! Oklahoma City was without those two stars when they went to Boston and won as a +9 dog allowing 84 points. Offense is not a problem for this young group, in the Top 10 in scoring with a winning record both home and away.
With all the attention on Durant and Green, Oklahoma City Thunder's point guard Russell Westbrook is in just his third NBA season, but has emerged as a top-five point guard and has been their best player. Westbrook averages of 23.8 points, 5.2 rebounds, 8.3 assists and 2.0 steals. He also has boosted his field-goal percentage from 41.8 percent a year ago to 43.9 percent this season. Despite that impressive defensive effort at Boston, this is still an uptempo team, starting 13-3 over the total. Note that Oklahoma City started 7-1 with Serge Ibaka in the starting lineup.

Mavericks: The Dallas Mavericks are surprising opponents early in the season, but not by running and gunning, which is what they used to do. Yes, Jason Kidd, Jason Terry and Dirk Nowitzki are still here, but the Mavs have morphed into a defensive team, second in the NBA in points allowed. They are also in the Top 5 allowing 43% shooting.
The newcomer to look at is 7-foot-1 center Tyson Chandler, who has always preferred to be a role player under the boards, blocking shots and grabbing rebounds. Chandler surpassed 15 rebounds for the second time in three games, recording 17 rebounds -- while adding three blocks -- versus Miami. The defense helped propel the Mavs during a 9-3 run under the total holding 8 straight opponents under 100.

Hornets: And speaking of defense, no one is doing it better than the New Orleans Hornets, tops in the league in points allowed. This team still has David West (18.6 ppg) and Chris Paul (16.5 ppg, 10 apg) running the show, but newcomers Emeka Okafor, Trevor Ariza and Marco Belinelli have changed the depth and dynamics. Belinelli is the top shooting guard in the Hornets' rotation while Okafor is a defensive and rebounding force. All of this explains why veteran Peja Stojakovic became expendable.
Keep tabs on home games, too: Despite a franchise-record start, the Hornets have experienced a decline in attendance. If the Hornets do not average crowds of at least 14,213 for the next 13 games at the New Orleans Arena, the franchise can opt out of its current lease agreement with the state. They started 11-6 under the total, though 4-3 over the total at home. To put more fans in the seats, will they go more uptempo at home?

Miami Heat: 70 wins! 72? Maybe the Big 3 had better focus on getting above .500. The Heat has been the punching bags of the NBA with so many rooting against them after LeBron James essentially put his own team together this summer. They have been worse than everyone imagined, bad on the road partly because of a lack of frontcourt height (19th in rebounding).
The defense is good, but the depth took a hit with the loss of role player Udonis Haslem for the season, their top rebounder. Then there’s the circus, with a players-only meeting and the national attention of the literal run-in between LeBron James and his coach. Then an anonymous source close to the team who claimed the Heat's players are beginning to question their team's leadership. No one's feeling sorry for you, LeBron, as this is what YOU wanted. After a 4-1 ATS start, they have been huge money-burners going 1-12 against the number.

Jim Feist Past Articles

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