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Indiancowboy Friday NBA & MLB Research

by: IndianCowboy

Friday, May 9th

May POD: 5-2 (1 pod per day)(yesterday POD was on the Magic)

Have not lost Back to Back PODs in 40 Days.
10-3 NBA Playoff POD Winners (77%), Doing 1 POD per Day and 22 of 31 Winners (70%).

NBA Playoff Friday Research

Lakers vs. Utah

Will the Utah Jazz finally step forth and step up big in this series? This team got off to a horrible start in game 2 where they fell behind by double-digits and never really got their bearings as they lost by 10 but still nearly covered. Keep in mind that this Lakers team has yet to lose a playoff game, after all, they beat the Nuggets 4-0, they have a 2-0 lead on the Jazz, but do note that playing in Denver on the road and playing in Utah on the road are much different and tougher tasks. However, the Lakers are on of the few teams that have won at Utah on the road in the regular season with the Rockets the only one to win twice there, once being in the playoffs. Utah is an incredibly tough place to play. Also note that if the Jazz are to win 1 ballgame in this series, it is here and now, similar to the Hawks vs. Celtics when they returned home after a 2-0 deficit. I did not take the over besides leaning on it heavily iin game 2, but I don't see the Lakers having a horrible game on the road given their confidence level right now and recent success, heck, I think this team will come out very focused as they are "gelling" very well right now, even without Bynum, in fact, Bynum might only mess with the dynamic they have going on currently. Frankly, if I were a Laker fan, I would not want Bynum to come back early as I think this team they have on the floor is doing just fine. Do note the Spurs give the Lakers much more of a headache than New Orleans imo, as the Hornets for some reason cannot win at Los Angeles as the Hornets have proved they can win at San Antonio. How big was the Hornets losing home court advantage late in the year? As remember, this team lost in Sacramento which gave the Lakers home court advantage throughout the playoffs and with the West winning the All-Star game, home court advantage in the championships. It was HUGE. After all, the Hornets are undefeated at home in the playoffs as they went 3-0 against the Mavs and now are 2-0 against the Spurs.I have no public percentages for this game, but do note, that I expect the public rougly 55 to 60% on the Lakers for this game, there was spike once the -3.5 was released off shore, as it now sits at -4 or -4.5, since the beginning of this year, the Lakers are 6-1 SU against the Jazz which is an important note the one win for the Jazz coming at home against the Lakers on 11/30 when they won 120-96 covering as -7.5 favorites. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Jazz do well tonight and see this game tip over as well, but for some reason, I have an odd feeling the Lakers might not score as many points like the one time they did struggle at Utah when they scored less than 100 while the Jazz popped 120.

MLB Friday Research

Dbacks vs. Cubs

A full stack of MLB on tap. This is going to be an exciting series and a possible playoff matchup down the road as both teams combine for a 41-27 record. Did you know in Haren's 7 starts, only 2 of them have been on the road? This might explain why he has well over a 6 ERA on the road. After 4 straight NQ (non-quality) starts, Lilly has pitched 3 straight quality starts to his credit. There is a reason why this game is a pick-em, similar to most Cubs games, anything can happen in this ballgame, no thanks.

Atlanta vs. Pittsburgh

Tommy boy hits the road as Glavine is 0-1 on the year as he has yet to pick up his first win, not surprising considering he is not a dominant pitcher anymore, but one that goes 6 inns and gives up 3 to 4 runs which leaves him with plenty of ND (no-decisions). But, that is all the Braves hope for him as similar to their 5-4 win yesterday, they are hoping for their baby Braves to put up the necessary runs on the board to win. Glavine and the Braves did win in his last start, but he also gave up 6 earned runs with over a 11 ERA, the only good thing was Arroyo was even worse that afternoon, Glavine did give up 1 run in 5 inns to Snell and the Pirates earlier this year, Snell is 1-0 with over a 5 ERA this year, but I want to note his ERA of late: 4.5 ERA, 6 ERA, 8.31 ERA and 6 ERA. He had a 6 ERA the last time the Braves faced the Nationals in a wild 12-11 ballgame in which the Nats ended up winning. There is a reason why Pitt is favored here in my opinion, hell over 65% are on the Braves which is worrisome as the public is riding the underdog, something fishy here, lean on the over, but likely staying away.

Cincy vs. Mets

What if I told you the Mets are 4th in the NL East? Yup, that is exactly what they are and as surprising as it sounds, the Mets are very over-valued given their struggling pitching. This team still has Maine and Santana, but I'm not sure about the remaining questionable suspects. Heck, even the Braves look better right now with Hudson, Smoltz, Glavine and if James can get it together, they have some quality hurlers similar to the Braves of old. Belisle has been progressively getting better as he had a sub 4 ERA last time out, but did lose that game against the Braves, Pelfrey is struggling in his last 3 starts with 7.22 ERA, 8.44 ERA and 9 ERA. I wouldn't be surprised to see some fireworks here today, lean on the over.

Florida vs. Washington

I understand that Nolasco has over a 7 ERA, but don't sell him short, he is on a bounce-back and the last time he came on a bounce-back he pitched a sub 2 ERA at Milwaukee cashing as a +125 dog against Parra and the Brewers. Redding is looking for some revenge against the Marlins though after a 6 ERA performance last time out, it's only because he beat them the first time he faced them so the Marlins avenged their previous loss to him, Redding has pitched back to back quality starts and is 2-2 with a 3.42 ERA at home. I wouldn't be surprised to see an under here.

St. Louis vs. Milwaukee

I'm writing this research before the Brewers vs. Marlins game is played, but the Brew Crew are under .500 at this stage and they are facing their divisional rivals the Cardinals at home. Well had a good bounce-back start against the Cubs, but has not fared well on the road with over a 5 ERA after a good start at Houston, Parra did help the Brewers beat St. Louis twice although not picking up a decision, 17 runs were scored the last time these 2 faced off with Parra on the mound, although Parra is on a bounce-back but he is giving up plenty of hits currently, I wouldn't be surprised to see an over here but it will be like pulling teeth the whole game, don't really trust Well here on the road, but do like the dog price.

Colorado vs. San Diego

What if I told you the defending National League Champs would start the season 13-21, would you believe me? In fact, what if I told you the team that features the likes of Helton, Atkins, Tulowitsky (who is injured), Francis and others, would have less wins than the Washington Nationals, would you believe me? . It is truly striking how much the Rockies have struggled in the early going. Yet, they are facing a Padres team that is even worse scoring 3.22 runs per game, the lowest in the league if I am not mistaken. Padres come off a tough loss to the Braves, although being a Braves fan, I don't mind. Cook has been a bright spot for the Rockies as he has delivered 4 straight quality starts, is 3-1 with a 2.77 ERA on the road and 4-1 with a 2.70 ERA on the entire season. He faces Peavy who went 8 inns but lost 1-2 to Francis when he faced the Rockies earlier this season. I like Peavy but I like Cook just as much frankly, and honestly even if San Diego has the edge in pitching, their measly offense is terrible to wager on. The under is an option, but at 6.5, lol, no thanks.

Philly vs. San Fran

How often do you see a 7.5 line in a Phillies game? Not very often. Hamels is on a bounce-back from a 6 ERA performance last time out, has a 3.10 ERA on the season, I expect him to pitch very well, did have a 6 ERA performance against San Fran last time out, did have a 2 ERA and a 3.86 ERA which both led to wins against San Fran last year, Misch had a horrible first start of the season, but I expect him to bounce-back well today, I wouldn't be surprised if this game dips under despite the low total that has been placed.

Houston vs. Dodgers

Moehler makes his first start of the year, the Astros are 18-16 some how way or another, but that is likely because Backe, Rodriguez and Oswalt are coming through fairly well and they are actually averaging 4.76 runs per ballgame which is a far cry from last year, they face Lowe who has had back to back non-quality starts on the road, who is looking forward to coming back home, who is 2-0 with a 1.89 ERA at home, who desperately needs a win, the Dodgers are 11-6 at home and come off a 1-12 pounding to the Mets, so they will look to bounce-back big at home today.

NBA Playoffs POD Summary:

Winning 4 of 5 WeeksApril POD: 21-9 (70%) (Doing 1 POD per day). The hard work in April Paid off.

*April Results: +20.08 Net Units, 8.33% Return of Investment.

*Winning 30-12 POD Run (71%) (Doing 1 POD per day). Back to Back 5-2 POD Weeks.

NBA 2007-2008 (Including Playoffs): +48 Units.

Other Streaks
Play Of The Day
30-12 (71%): Last 41 days: +46.3 Units: 36.17% ROI.
College Basketball
4-1 (80%): March Madness Tourney: +8.0 Units: 53.47% ROI.
College Football
7-3 (70%): Final Week of Bowl Season: +10.1 Units: 33.67% ROI.
NFL Side Plays
3-1 (75%): Final Stretch of the NFL Playoffs: +5.2 Units: 43.58% ROI.
NBA Moneyline Plays
6-4 (60%): Last 52 days: +23.2 Units (Included Kings and Grizzlies +1150 ML): 193.08% ROI.
NBA 5 Unit Side Plays
3-1 (75%): Last 98 days: +8.7 Units: 43.45% ROI.

IndianCowboy Past Articles

IC's Research: Friday Football and Wnba Research
4-1-1 Last Weekend in Football and 2-0-1 on Saturday including Utah Outright and Florida as the POD Winner. NCAAF Navy vs. Ball StateNavy is well known ... read more

IC's Wednesday Research and Short Article!
Last Weekend:2-0-1 College Football Saturday and 4-1-1 Overall Weekend, 5* Selections,2-0 last Weekend & 14-3 Lifetime now. Minny vs. PhoenixThe odds ... read more

IC's Research: Monday
NFLPOD hitting at 60% the Last 5 Months, Doing 1 POD per day. Seattle vs. San DiegoCharlie Frye had an unceremonious under 50 passer rating in his last ... read more

IC's Friday Research
Friday, August 22ndFriday: 1-0 (POD: San Fran/Chicago Over: Winner by Halftime), Thursday: 2-0 (POD: Angels, Underdog: Winner), 3-0-1 Last 4 NFL Preseason ... read more

IC's Thursday Research
Thursday, August 21st Yesterday: 2-0, POD hitting at 60% the Last 5 Months, Doing 1 POD per day (80-55-4=60%). NFLSan Francisco vs. ChicagoKeep in mind ... read more

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IndianCowboy Recent Past Picks

IndianCowboy
WNBA Basketball

Chicago Sky @ Connecticut Sun Friday September 5, 2008 7:05 pm
Based on my handicapping, it would make no sense for me not to take the Sky here. This was the same team that won as outright dogs at New York (similar margin of a dog to Conn here but just smaller around 7 to 8 points), won outright at Washington, won outright at home against Detroit ... read more

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WNBA Basketball

Minnesota Lynx @ Phoenix Mercury Wednesday September 3, 2008 10:05 pm
The odds for this game have opened up at -3 for Phoenix and the first thing that strikes you is the fact is that over 80% favor Phoenix for this game. Keep in mind that Lynx got absolutely drilled on the road last night at the Sparks. Remember, when a team gets beat by ... read more

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WNBA Basketball

Seattle Storm @ Atlanta Dream Tuesday September 2, 2008 7:05 pm
Frankly, I have no idea why this total is moving down, I thought the Seattle/Conn Total should not be moving down this past weekend but it was and I stayed away from it and it consequently went over. Given that, it just goes to show that you should roll with the research that ... read more

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WNBA Basketball

Minnesota Lynx @ LA Sparks Monday September 1, 2008 10:35 pm
Additional write-up: I just see this as a bit of a repeat from the Storm vs. Sun game and this is a game that the Lynx could very well win Outright on the road today. I'll take the 6.5 for a possible Outright Win or the Cover as I have this at a 58% chance of cashing today. ... read more

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College Football

Tennessee Volunteers @ UCLA Bruins Monday September 1, 2008 8:00 pm
I am a fan of the SEC and biased to the SEC. Having said this, UCLA's 2 starting quarterbacks in Olson and Cowan are out. The public favors Tennessee to the tune of 60%+ here and I have never trusted UCLA football. They do have a new coach who will look to make an impression in his ... read more

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College Football

Colorado Buffaloes @ Colorado State Rams Sunday August 31, 2008 7:30 pm
Dan Hawkins has gone 8-17 in his first 2 years at Colorado, although this team did beat Oklahoma at home and note that they did beat Texas Tech twice, having said that, this team needs to get better and it will do so this year. They have a QB in Cody who is returning and will be ... read more

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WNBA Basketball

Detroit Shock @ Chicago Sky Sunday August 31, 2008 6:05 pm
I just mentioned that the biggest public play on the board was Connecticut, I take it back, the biggest public play on the board is indeed Detroit - on the road as a 72% favorite over Chicago. This nearly outlines the fact that Chicago is likely to win this game outright - Remember, ... read more

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College Football

Tulsa Golden Hurricane @ UAB Blazers Saturday August 30, 2008 4:00 pm
Normally, I don't cover Conference USA, but this is an exception as I know UAB via knowing Alabama football well, know that this team returns the most number of players back in Conference USA Football as last year Neil Callaway and his staff that rolled in were in their first year. ... read more

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College Football

Utah Utes @ Michigan Wolverines Saturday August 30, 2008 3:30 pm
Gallsy, I know. But, I believe in my research and it says that Utah will win this game Outright. Note, I called Chicago Outright yesterday on the road at Washington and nothing is different here. I believe in teams that win outright and taking the points with teams ... read more

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College Football

Hawaii Warriors @ Florida Gators Saturday August 30, 2008 12:30 pm
Florida might just kill this team, and I mean just kill them. Remember, Hawaii has a new coach, their starting quarterback is not playing as he is with injury back in Hawaii, Hawaii returns just 11 players back which has 5 on offense and 5 on already a questionable defense and 1 ... read more

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