Marc Lawrence Double Perfect ATS NBA Killer Play! (Mon 7:00PM)
If you've been enjoying Marc's fabulous run in the NBA playoffs (13-5-1 overall) - including his Double Perfect Play winner on the Heat over the Pacers yesterday - you'll love his Double Perfect Play winner on Monday night's playoff card. Get it now as Marc continues to win again night!
NBA Zig Zag Theory Exposed
by: Marc Lawrence
Long before the GOLD SHEET first called out the premise, Zig Zags were primarily recognized as popular rolling papers for those who enjoy their smoke of choice.
In NBA handicapping circles, Zig Zags are trendy applications that have been profitable moneymakers during the playoffs. The premise is simple: ‘Play On’ a team off a playoff loss in its very next game.
The theory is that in a short series involving imminent elimination, a team in more inclined to bounce back with a good effort off a losing performance than it is to continue its losing ways.
How have these plays held up of late? You might be surprised.
Here are pointspread results of NBA Playoff Zig Zags from 1991 through 2010.
Game on
Overall: 642-566-29
Game Two: 156-133-12
Game Three: 169-127-4
Game Four: 133-132-5
Game Five: 90-100-5
Game Six: 62-53-1
Game Seven: 23-21-2
The strength of NBA Zig Zags appears to be in Game Three where they become a 57% point spread play on the blind. That’s especially true for home teams that were limited to 75 or fewer points in Game Two as these guys get really stoked, going 13-2 in these contests.
Round ‘em up
Round One: 303-261-14
Round Two: 194-174-7
Round Three: 96-90-6
Round Four: 49-41-2
While it appears there is hold no discernable edge between rounds, it’s interesting to note that the largest profits are derived by home teams in Round One as they are 160-121-8, including 85-58-5 when playing off a double-digit defeat.
Planting the seed
No. 1 Seeds: 90-80-4
No. 2 Seeds: 83-63-3
No. 3 Seeds: 70-65-8
No. 4 Seeds: 65-58-1
No. 5 Seeds: 51-47
No. 6 Seeds: 44-44-1
No. 7 Seeds: 34-46-3
No. 8 Seeds: 43-36-4-3
Note these results are since the 1996 season, when our database first began charting seeds.
Living up to it’s billing, No. 2 tries harder.
Burn baby burn
Like all things that are popular, they eventually burn out and revert back to the norm.
A combination of the ‘law of averages’ and an adjustment by the oddsmakers has seen the NBA Zig Zags start to go up in smoke since 2001.
That’s confirmed by the fact that these plays slipped dramatically the last 10 years (2001-2010), going 331-317-9 – or 51.0% - overall as opposed to a 311-249-19 mark – or 55.5% - in games played from 1991-2000.
Talk about a buzz kill.
Higher than a kite
So then where is it we can still expect to catch the best buzz possible with NBA Zig Zags these days, you ask?
Twist these two up for size and remember, no bogarting:
1) Double Digit Dogs are 40-19-1 and,
2) favorites of more than four points off a loss of 20 or more are 29-8.
After all, they make the best sensimilla, if you know what I mean…
Marc Lawrence Past Articles
2011 BIG 12 Conference Football Preview
Much like the shrink-wrap used by food packagers these days, the BIG 12 shrank to 10 teams for the 2011 season with the defections of Colorado (PAC 10) ... read more
2011 Big 10 Conference Preview
It used to be that when you talked Big 10 Football you were talking Ohio State.After all, the Buckeyes won at least a share of the last six Big Ten Championships ... read more
2011 Big East Football Preview
As referenced in last year’s pre-season preview, this always-powerful basketball conference has come a long way toward establishing a football pedigree ... read more
2011 ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE FOOTBALL PREVIEW
2011 ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE FOOTBALL PREVIEWBy Marc LawrenceAfter leading the nation the previous four years with the most players selected in the ... read more
June Good Month Pitchers
JUNE GOOD MONTH PITCHERSBy Marc Lawrence If it’s June, school is out. And so too will be the NBA (we think). It’s also the time of the ... read more
All Marc Lawrence Past Articles
Marc Lawrence Past Picks
NBA Basketball
Miami Heat @ Indiana Pacers Sunday May 20, 2012 3:30 pm
Play On: Miami Heat (Game 529)Note: When the Heat takes on the Pacers in Game Four of their 2nd round playoff series in Indiana Sunday afternoon Miami will take the court in a killer winning situation. That's because teams in Game Four of a playoff series, off a two losses-exact ... read more
MLB Baseball
Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs Saturday May 19, 2012 7:15 pm
Play On: Chicago Cubs w/Dempster vs Danks (Game 926)Note: The Cubs and White Sox meet in Game Two of this Interleague cross-town rivalry Saturday evening when Ryan Dempster matches serves with John Danks at Wrigley Field. Dempster takes the mound in great KW form with 18 strikeouts ... read more
MLB Baseball
Miami Marlins @ Cleveland Indians Saturday May 19, 2012 4:05 pm
Play On: Miami Marlins w/SanchezNote: When the Marlins meet the Indians this Saturday afternoon in Game Two of this Interleague showdown in Cleveland the Fish will send the steady serves of Anibal Sanchez to the mound knowing he's posted a 1.65 ERA away from South Beach this season. ... read more
NBA Basketball
San Antonio Spurs @ Los Angeles Clippers Saturday May 19, 2012 3:30 pm
Play On: L.A. Clippers (Game 526)Note: The Clippers return home to host the super-surging Spurs in Game Three of their 2nd round playoff series Saturday afternoon knowing they have excelled as underdogs this season with Chris Paul in the lineup in games when playing off back-to-back ... read more
NBA Basketball
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Los Angeles Lakers Friday May 18, 2012 10:35 pm
Play On: L.A. Lakers (Game 524)Note: The Lakers return home to host the Thunder in Game Three of their 2nd round playoff series Friday evening finding them in a 0-2 hole thanks to a gut-wrenching 77-75 loss at Oklahoma City Wednesday night. That sets the table for tonight's ... read more
NBA Basketball
Miami Heat @ Indiana Pacers Thursday May 17, 2012 7:05 pm
Play On: Miami Heat (Game 517)Note: When Miami travels to Indiana to take on the Pacers in Game Three of their 2nd round playoff series Thursday evening the Heat will take the court in a terrific winning situation. That's because road team in Game Three of a playoff series, ... read more
NBA Basketball
Los Angeles Lakers @ Oklahoma City Thunder Wednesday May 16, 2012 9:35 pm
Play On: L.A. Lakers (Game 515)Note: When the Lakers take on the Thunder in Game Two of their 2nd round playoff series in Oklahoma City Wednesday evening Los Angeles will take the court tin a powerful winning situation. That's because Game Two playoff road dogs off a loss of ... read more
NBA Basketball
Los Angeles Clippers @ San Antonio Spurs Tuesday May 15, 2012 9:35 pm
Play On: San Antonio (Game (506)Note: When the Spurs host the Clippers in Game One of their 2nd round playoff series Tuesday night San Antonio will take the court knowing that Game One road teams playing with one day of rest off a Game Seven win the previous series are ... read more
NBA Basketball
Los Angeles Lakers @ Oklahoma City Thunder Monday May 14, 2012 9:35 pm
Play On: Oklahoma City (Game (508)Note: When the Thunder host the Lakers in Game One of their 2nd round playoff series Monday night Oklahoma City will take the court knowing that Game One dogs off a Game Seven home win the previous series are 0-14 SU and 1-13 ATS if they failed to ... read more
NBA Basketball
Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat Sunday May 13, 2012 3:35 pm
Play On: Miami Heat (Game 502)Note: When the Heat host the Pacers in the first game in this 2nd round playoff series Sunday afternoon Miami will take the court in powerful winning situation. That's because road teams in Game One of a series that won their previous playoff series ... read more
