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NBA Finals - Preview
by: Andre Gomes
And today starts the NBA final which will bring more emotion and higher ratings than the previous finals, as the title will be discussed between the teams that the public and the NBA most wished: Boston and Lakers. In this analysis the main question is to know who is the favorite to win the final and if they are the fair favorite. The Lakers are the favorites to win the champion ship and the oddmakers clearly reflect that: Lakers with an odd of 1.50 (-190) and Boston with 2.60 (+160). Also the experts put the Lakers as the favorites to win the final and recently I watched on ESPN 7 of 8 experts picking the Lakers to be the NBA champions this season.
The question I put in here is if this is a fair price for the series. Boston had to deal during the whole season (and this includes the playoffs) with the pressure to win, that the Big 3 were yet to win anything and they had to win, etc... Suddenly they stopped being favorites and this may actually favor the team. I remember Boston had the best record in the regular season with 66 wins (more 9 wins than the Lakers) and an impressive ATS record of 51-30-1, however, what really matters is what happened in the playoffs and that's the main reason why the Lakers are the favorites today.
The Lakers come to this final having just played 15 games in the postseason, while Boston needed 20 games and two Game 7 series to advance into this final. However let's not forget the opponents both teams had to face, also reflect the difficulty of the series. Lakers didn't have problems against Denver and Utah, because both teams played in the same way of the Lakers, but without the quality of LA. On the other side, Boston faced Cleveland and Detroit, who playing at the same way of Boston, had way more experience in the postseason than the Celtics. The only important series for the Lakers were against the defending champions, the Spurs. But almost the whole series was decided on the Game 1, when the Spurs couldn't take advantage of a 20 points lead already in the second half of the game.
So we will quickly see that we are in presence of two teams with very different styles: offense vs defense! The Lakers have the best offense in the postseason with 105.9 ppg and 47.8% FG with Kobe Bryant on-fire, but on the other side, Boston is the best defense with just 87.2 ppg allowed. The Lakers are 8-0 at home games in the postseason and Boston is 10-1, but we cannot forget the problems Boston had to win on the road, I remember the 0-6 away record they had in the first two series and this also explains why the Lakers are the favorites for this final, as cannot forget that in the final the order of the games is 2-3-2, so the Lakers will play three times at home in a row. However the momentum for Boston is quite good right now. Boston won two of three games they played at Detroit and in the last one, they were down by 60-70 at the end of the 3rd quarter, but they were able to comeback and to win the game and the series, so Boston will also come confident for this final.
Another important factor is that the Lakers for the first time won't have home court advantage in this postseason and even though, this isn't surely decisive, the truth is that the Lakers started their three series in this postseason taking the lead by 2-0! Unlike Boston, who saw this advantage being taken away after losing the Game 2 of their series against the Pistons at home. So, what will happen if the Lakers lose tonight? It will be the first time in this postseason that they will be in disadvantage in a series.
In the matchups a lot can be said about the positions where Boston and the Lakers may have an edge over the other team, but this advantage can easily disappear. Kobe will be unstoppable, Boston will try to limit him, but with the way he has been playing lately puts him on a different level above everybody else. On the other side, a lot has been said about Ray Allen and his bad moment, but that's not exactly true as Ray Ray is coming from his two best games he has played in the postseason (Game 5 vs Detroit: 9-15 FG and 29 points and in the Game 6 he has made 6-12 FG and 27 points). Paul Pierce will have an edge in theory over Radmanovic, as the Celtics captain has been playing at a good level recently and let's not forget he was defended by Lebron and Prince in the last two series, who surely are better defenders than Radmanovic can ever dream to be. The guards battle will be between Fisher (experience) and Rondo (youth). Fisher isn't shooting well in this postseason, but his experience will be important, while Rondo has been alternating great performances with weak ones, but everytime he has played well, Boston won, so this duel will be extremely important. At last we have the frontcourt duel which has been receiving a lot of different opinions in the last week. Pau Gasol revolutioned the Lakers and Odom, even though he isn't consistent, has clearly improved with Gasol on his side and he played very well in the series against the Spurs. On the other side, we have Boston with Garnett and Perkins who has been dominating the interior game in this playoffs and against very strong teams in the frontcourt, like Cleveland and Detroit. I remember Boston was the 4th team in the league in terms of rebound margin in the regular season with +3.0 rpg and already in this playoffs, the numbers are even more impressive, with +3.25 rpg, especially as they have played 13 of their 20 games in the postseason against Detroit and Cleveland. The interior game of the Lakers is more "finess" and the key in this series will be how the Lakers frontcourt will fit against the most powerful and aggressive frontcourt of Boston.
With all these factors, there are arguments for both teams to be champions, but to get the title, they will need to show these arguments in the field.
For today Andre Gomes has one premium pick!
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