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NBA Finals Fever

by: Jim Feist

Say, what happened to the Celtics, Lakers and Spurs? 2011 was supposed to be the year when all the old fogies advanced in the NBA playoffs. Instead, young teams from Memphis, Miami, Chicago, Atlanta and Oklahoma City pulled many surprises, so this postseason appears to be “The Year That the Torch was Passed.”

Unless you’re a Dallas Mavericks fan. The thirty-something Mavericks, a No. 3 seed, pulled some surprises of their own to advance to the NBA Finals. Despite the site of 26-year old Jose Barea running all over the place, this is an older, veteran Dallas Mavericks team. You have 32-year old Dirk Nowitzki (who turns 33 in June), 33-year old Shawn Marion, Jason Terry and Peja Stojakovic (both 33) and 38-year old Jason Kidd.

While the NBA is more of an athletic game, primed for young legs, the experience of the Mavericks certainly has helped them. They were poised in their upset series win over the defending champion Lakers, even when trailing on the road, then watched Oklahoma City fall apart at key stretches while the veteran Mavs executed so well at crunch time.

There really haven’t been many youthful teams winning the NBA title lately. The Celtics and Lakers were veteran teams that clashed in the Finals in 2008 and last year. The experienced Lakers topped the young Orlando Magic in 2009, blowing out the kids in Game 1, 100-75. Prior to that veteran teams like the Spurs, Pistons and 2006 Miami Heat won titles.

Ahh, the Miami Heat, and here they are again. They really aren’t that youthful, with LeBron James the only kid at age 26, and even he’s been in the league eight years. He’s also been in the NBA Finals in 2007 with Cleveland.  Dwyane Wade (age 29) already has a ring with the 2006 Heat, a veteran team that also had Shaq, Antoine Walker, Udonis Haslem and Gary Payton.

You will be seeing two of the best defensive teams in the NBA, which shouldn’t surprise: Miami was sixth in points allowed during the regular season, Dallas was 10th; Miami was second in field goal defense (.434%), while Dallas was 8th (.450%). The over is 13-6-1 in the Mavericks last 20 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game, while Miami is 9-4 over the total in their last 13 games as a road underdog.

Both teams had some difficulties in the first half of the season, but came on like gang busters down the stretch. You know the old saying: It’s not who starts the race hot, it’s who finishes first.

Dallas won both regular season meetings, though those were back in November and December.  The Mavericks won 106-95 at home in the first meeting in a contest that sailed over the total of 189. Miami was 9-8 at the time and had just called a players only meeting the previous game. The Mavericks outscored the Heat 48-26 in the paint and held Miami to 41% shooting. Miami had a big edge at the free throw line (35 attempts to 22), but Dallas was 7 of 17 from long range.

Dallas has won 14 consecutive regular season games over Miami since March 2004, and 17 of 18. That doesn't include the 2006 NBA Finals, when the Heat won in six games after losing the first two. The Mavericks are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game and 40-18-1 ATS in their last 59 games following a straight up win.

In the most recent meeting, December 20th at Miami, the Mavericks won again, 98-96, as a +7 dog. The game went over the total of 189. The Mavericks held LeBron James scoreless in the first half on the way to ending Miami's 12-game winning streak as Miami shot just .406%. Dallas was again strong from long range, hitting 8 of 21 three points (38%), while Miami was 11 of 31 (35%).

Keep in mind the Mavericks are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game, while the Heat is 7-0 ATS in their last seven games playing on one day’s rest. Terry has spoken often about how losing to Miami in the 2006 NBA finals still upsets him. He gets his chance this week to do more than talk about it!

Jim Feist Past Articles

Lean Toward Big Dogs More than Big Chalk
by Jim Feist April and May means that many novice sports bettors may look at the matchups and lean toward ace pitchers and lay the big price. But let ... read more

Baseball Hot and Cold Starts
More than any other sport, baseball is a game of patience. It's not how you start, but where you finish, and with a 162-game regular season, there is ... read more

NBA Stretch Run: The Best of the East
It's been a long haul, even in this abbreviated 66-game NBA regular season, but the playoffs are just around the corner. So who wins the NBA title? The ... read more

Some NBA Teams Pack It In Late
There are three more weeks to go in the NBA regular season. This means there are professional athletes in the NBA who will be going on vacation in a month, ... read more

Tourney Matchup Tips
It's the final stretch of a long college basketball season. There are better teams, tougher matchups, and defensive intensity. It's a good time of the ... read more

All Jim Feist Past Articles

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All Jim Feist Past Picks