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Down the Stretch

by: Big Al McMordie

There are a couple of key points to keep in mind from a handicapping perspective as the NBA season begins to wind down. One is that this is the end of a long season. That means teams have had to endure a lot of road trips, airline flights, and all the difficulties that hinder a professional team away from home. Keep in mind that road trips can be very different early in the year, in mid-season and late in the season.

  For early season road trips, teams are fresher and can even look forward to trips as a challenge to see how good they are. Late in the year, however, it can be far more of a hassle and a grind as we approach the end of an 82-game season. Bad teams can be more interested in getting the season over with, and even good teams can be more interested in staying healthy, seeing road trips as more of a drag than a challenge. When Minnesota plays at San Antonio on Friday, it will be the 8th road game over the last 11 games for the T-Wolves. And Minnesota is 5-28 on the road.

   In addition, line-up changes can be taking place that affect the performance of a team. Phoenix is on a 6-0 SU, 5-0-1 ATS run while getting Shaquille O'Neal settled into the lineup. In a win over Houston, Shaq had 23 points -- his most since coming to Phoenix -- and grabbed 13 rebounds. In fact, the Suns are on a 9-5 run over the total.

   Phoenix runs five sets of offenses, all with internal variations. Some are designed for when O'Neal is on the court and some are for when he is out. With a comfort level in the new varied attack, the Suns are averaging 116.2 points during the six-game winning streak. Phoenix is averaging more fast-break points with O'Neal (18.2 per game) than before his debut (17.9 per game). The Suns are shooting 57.6 percent from the field in the past five games. So all the talk about the Suns changing their style of play to fit Shaq in was a bit overblown.

  What has been changed is their defense and rebounding. The O'Neal addition has had a positive impact on rebounding (a swing in rebounding differential from -5.6 before O'Neal to +4.0 with O'Neal) and post defense (opponents are shooting 41.9 percent during the Suns' win streak).

  The LA Clippers also have changes – for the worse. LA has lost 15 of 17 games, going 4-13 ATS. "Even at this point, I don't know exactly who my starting lineup will be," Coach Mike Dunleavy said about 90 minutes before the tipoff of the last game.  Brevin Knight (lower left leg), Aaron Williams (abdominal muscle) and Chris Kaman (lower back) were out again. They all joined Elton Brand, Shaun Livingston and Paul Davis, who are sidelined because of serious injuries.

   This time of the season division titles and playoff seedings are at stake for some teams. You may recall a year ago Denver saw a division title in sight around this time and went on an 8-2 SU/ATS run.

   Seattle offers a contrast from one year ago. Down the stretch in 2007, just before the trade deadline the Sonics shipped out several players whom they felt were unmotivated trouble makers. In their place, they had guys who the organization liked, players like Earl Watson and Chris Wilcox who they felt had a strong interest in playing hard. Seattle went on a 6-3 SU/6-3 ATS run, and 7-3 ATS run over ten games.

  Now, they have a new coach in P.J. Carlesimo and Earl Watson has a bruised right calf. They also have a lot of new, young players, such as rookies Kevin Durant and Jeff Green. They don’t have that same kind of energy, riding an 11-game skid (4-6-1 ATS). Most embarrassing is the defense, allowing 121, 168, 110, 130 and 115 points the last 5 games. Clearly this group doesn’t care, even going 1-4-1 ATS the last 6 games. "We've got to respond," said forward Donyell Marshall after the loss to Utah. "You know when people throw punches we've got to fight back. We just didn't do that in the second half."

  Despite a bad game at Milwaukee, the Cavaliers have been playing sharper defense of late, similar to the kind that helped them win the East a year ago. They are on a 9-5 run under the total, including two strong defensive efforts against the Detroit Pistons and Toronto Raptors. That may continue if Ben Wallace comes back healthy soon. This is why stats and trends are only one small part of the handicapping equation. Changes take place all the time, and it's imperative to keep up and know how to apply these changes, if necessary, with respect to betting numbers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

Big Al McMordie Past Articles

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It’s not your imagination: The Dogs have been barking loudly this NFL preseason. In Week 1 the dogs were 9-5-2 against the number, which is not ... read more

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Football is king and August kicks off the 2008 football season. Yes, exhibition football is largely meaningless for the players and coaches, with starters ... read more

NFL Season Wins Forecast
With the NFL season just around the corner, this is a good time to look at what might happen this fall on the gridiron. Future numbers are out for each ... read more

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It’s almost as if last year’s bizarre football season has carried over into baseball. 2007 was an incredible season of shockers in football. ... read more

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Big Al McMordie Recent Past Picks

MLB Baseball

New York Yankees @ Seattle Mariners Friday September 5, 2008 10:05 pm
At 10:10pm our selection is on the New York Yankees and Seattle Mariners 'under' the total.  These two teams have played their last nine games against each other in the Bronx, and the Yankees have won eight of those nine games.  In this, the first and only series of the ... read more

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MLB Baseball

Minnesota Twins @ Toronto Blue Jays Thursday September 4, 2008 7:07 pm
At 7:05pm our selection is on the Minnesota Twins and Toronto Blue Jays 'under' the total.  If the Twins fail to catch the White Sox by only a game or two and thereby do not make it into the postseason, they can look no further than the season series against Toronto, a team ... read more

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MLB Baseball

Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Indians Tuesday September 2, 2008 7:05 pm
At 7:05pm our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Cleveland Indians.  The White Sox should feel lucky that they are in the AL Central division.  Were they in either the East or West, they would be struggling mightily for the AL Wild Card spot, but because they ... read more

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MLB Baseball

St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks Monday September 1, 2008 4:10 pm
At 4:10pm our selection is on the St Louis Cardinals and Arizona Diamondbacks 'under' the total.  It's hard to imagine that multiple-Cy Young winner and certain future Hall of Famer Randy Johnson could be in need of anything these days.  But the fact is that the 6'10" ... read more

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MLB Baseball

Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays Sunday August 31, 2008 1:40 pm
 At 1:40pm our selection is on the Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays 'under' the total.  26-year-old Tampa Bay righthander James Shields has been terrific at home this year, and ineffective on the road.  Through 27 starts this season, Shields is 8-2 with an amazing ... read more

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MLB Baseball

Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals Saturday August 30, 2008 7:10 pm
At 7:10pm our selection is on the Washington Nationals over the Atlanta Braves.  If the Nationals could play the entire season against the Braves, they might just win the NL East Division and be headed for the postseason.  As bad as Washington is this season (50-85 and ... read more

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MLB Baseball

St. Louis Cardinals @ Houston Astros Saturday August 30, 2008 7:05 pm
At 7:05pm our complimentary selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Houston Astros.  Veteran righthanded starter Braden Looper is a bit of a hard luck pitcher.  Despite an excellent ERA of 3.94, and playing for a team that wins about 55% of the time, Looper has ... read more

Big Al McMordie Bio and Picks | Articles By Big Al McMordie

College Football

Memphis Tigers @ Mississippi Rebels Saturday August 30, 2008 7:00 pm
At 7 pm (time change), our selection is on the Memphis Tigers plus the points over the Ole Miss Rebels.  This will be the fifth straight year that these two rivals have opened up their seasons against each other.  Last year, Tommy West's Tigers lost by 2-points, 23-21, ... read more

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College Football

Hawaii Warriors @ Florida Gators Saturday August 30, 2008 12:30 pm
At 12:30 pm (time change), on Saturday, our selection is on the Florida Gators minus the points over Hawaii.  This will be a tough season for the Rainbows.  Not only did star quarterback Colt Brennan graduate (he was drafted by the Washington Redskins), but head coach June ... read more

Big Al McMordie Bio and Picks | Articles By Big Al McMordie

MLB Baseball

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks Friday August 29, 2008 9:40 pm
At 9:40pm our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Arizona Diamondbacks.  It's hard to imagine it, but one of these two teams has to win this game.  The Dodgers come into this series having lost seven games in a row and were swept by both the Phillies and Nationals.  ... read more

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