Wednesday NBA Playoff and NL Baseball Preview!

by: IndianCowboy

Wednesday, April 30th

*Winning 19 of 25 NBA PODs (76%) (6 of Last 7, doing 1 POD per day)

NBA Research Wednesday

Washington vs. Cleveland

I was really hoping that the public would like the Cavs at 60% or less. In fact, I was even willing to take up to 65% and still take the Cavs. But, the fact that nearly 80% of the public like the Cavs is reason to stay away from this game alone. The Cavs have clearly shown they have a tendency to cover games where they are heavily backed by the public, just check out game 1 for example and countless times this season, although being behind big at home they will come back to not only win straight up, but also cover, i.e. against the Bulls at home. This team also hates the Wizards with a passion given the heated exchanges they have had and Lebron getting hacked hard at several points in the series, not to mention their bad blood from the Cavs sweep of an injured Wizards team last year in the first round. Thus, it birngs this game, in which the Cavs are heavy, heavy public favorites by a margin of -4.5 today. There is in fact, no series price for this ballgame currently in many books as it seems Vegas has come to believe as well, from what was a Wizards price at +200 at points to win this series, is simply far too much of a dog to even offer such a price. I lean on the Cavs, but the simple fact that so many in the commong public favor them, no thanks. Do note, that this game is likely to go over in my opinion given that I think the Wizards control the tempo of this game early and do come off a loss themselves.

Atlanta vs. Boston

Keep in mind that I hit the over twice between these 2 teams when the game is in Atlanta fitting into the underdog/over principle which I believe in avidly. However, do note that the under and Boston cashed both times in Boston while the over and the Hawks cashed while in Atlanta. Hence, favor/under and underdog/over is what has essentially occured here. Don't get me wrong, I love the Hawks, but at the same time, this is a very proud Celtics team that has clearly shown they can win at home, yes, the Hawks have momentum, but this Celtics team led by 10 heading into the 4th quarter and it is the Hotlanta crowd that propelled them a great deal in my opinion. Plus, it will be incredibly tough for Josh Smith and Joe Johnson to score all the Hawks points in the 4th quarter this time around as well as Boston and Doc Rivers will make defensive adjustments back at home. Look for this game to be a repeat of game 1 and 2 in my opinion as I like the fact that the public is taking both sides here at a 50/50 rate, as I think Boston has a chance to really lay the wood down here in game 5 and I would not be surprised to see a Hawks/over - but in game 6 as I think game 5 will likely belong to Boston decisively.

MLB Research Wednesday

Pittsburgh vs. Mets

Perez has consistently had up and down performances back and forth as his last performance was a tough outing as he gave up 5 runs in 5 plus innings in Washington, also note that Gorzo's control has simply been horrible as he has given up 22 walks to his 13 strikeouts. If I were to take anything on this game, it would be the run-line, but given that I don't do run-lines just based on principle but what you have is Perez on a bounce-back but Gorzo is looking to tame his 7 walks from the last ballgame, lean on the mets run-line, but likely taking 2 nba picks and a mlb side without a run-line today.

Cards vs. Reds

The Reds got spanked yesterday by a 7-2 margin as their young hurler got roughed up early, keep in mind that the Reds have their ace on the mound in Harang and the Cards have Looper who comes off a great game against Houston where he did not yield an earned run and reduced his e.r.a. down to 4 and change. After a rough outing against the Cubs on the road, Harang has put together back to back quality starts against the Brewers and at San Fran. I do lean on the Reds here with Harang and coming off a loss, but I just hate going against the Cards at this rate.

Braves vs. Nats

Braves lose with Glavine in their last ballgame and are in fact, have lost their last 3 as they are 4th in their division looking up at Washington. Jurrjens has pitched in 4 straight unders and 3 straight quality starts this year and has given up 14 hits in his last 10 innings and I am a bit surprised to see the short price here on the Braves on the road, which is probably why 65%+ are on them today, but then again, 65%+ was on Glavine over Redding and that did not cash well for Braves backers. Lean on the Braves here with Jurrjens as the Bravos have had success hitting against Hill.

San Diego vs. Philly

Young has pitched back to back quality starts after struggling as Moyer has as well, and in fact, Moyer has pitched back to back unders with a 10 total placed on his last 2 ballgames, I lean on the under here rather than one team or the other as I trust Young more, but I trust the Reds offense more. No thanks, as I see this number awfully high for this game, but I wouldn't be surprised to see some fireworks with the bats as the line seems odd, so I am likely staying away.

Dodgers vs. Marlins

Billingsley has struggled in the early going for the Dodgers as he has given up 9 runs in 11 innings and although he did strikeout 12 against the Dbacks, the fact that he has given up so many runs is a concner. Keep in mind the Marlins are putting up runs with comfort, Olsen has pitched 4 straight quality starts and has given up just 1 run in his last 21 innings of work and the Marlins typically do not lose back to back games this year, I look for the Marlins to actually do well here today as the Marlins are 2nd in the league in home runs and frankly I don't beleive they should be a dog here.

Brewers vs. Cubs

I typically do not liking taking baseball favorites as I do dogs but mostly totals as that is similar to anything ATS that I would do in the nba, college ball, NFL or the Wnba with similar juice. Given that I do just a few plays a day, I play even fewer dogs as individuals that play many ballgames are able to hit more value that dogs are able to give rather than doing just a few plays a day predominately 1-3. Haivng said that, I like Dempster here for the Cubs as he has pithced so well, but something is eerily odd about this line given that I had it around -145 or -150 given that it is a night Cubs game with Dempster on the mound, no thanks, I'll be a fan. I haven't seen a total yet, but Suppan has pitched very well in back to back quality starts, I look for this game to hit under.

*Winning 24 of 34 POD (71%) (Doing 1 POD per day)

*Winning 14 of 22 Days (62%)

*Winning 3 of 4 Weeks. (5-2 POD Last Week)

April: +24.12 Units, 9.47% Return of Investment.

NBA 2007-2008 (Including Playoffs): +46.6 Units.

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Yesterday's Analysis: 1-1

Rockets -1 (POD) (Winner)

The Rockets are in a really good spot here today, considering that this team has covered back to back ballgames has Alston has meant the world to this team as his return re-establishes depth, gives the Rockets another scoring option and allows their players to go back to their scoring roles, the Rockets I believe have shown that Alston is the equalizer in this series. After all, when he was injured this team was 0-2 and did not cover either of the first 2 games. With him, they have covered game 3 and game 4 and even won one straight up and was one bucket away from having this series at 2-2 as they headed back to Houston. I think the Rockets take Game 5 here and might even take game 6 as being home will make all the difference in the world from that one bucket they were short in game 4.

Reds/Cards Under 8.5 (Loss)

Cuerto has gotten steadily worse as it seems the NL is beginning to figure him out with reviewing some more of his tendencies as it seems his honeymoon is getting over. However, keep in mind that he typically has a bounce-back after a tough outing such as the one he had against Houston his last time out giving up 5 runs. The kid has pitched in 4 of 5 unders and note that Pineiro's ERA is a bit deceiving as he has gotten significantly better than his first start at San Fran and comes off a gem at Pittsburgh. There is a reason why the line is so low no both ends here as this game is a pure toss up given the pitching matchups and I look for this game to hit under today.

IndianCowboy Past Articles

Wednesday's research:
POD #1 in the Nation:26-15 Last 40 PODs (63%)64-40-3 (61%), Doing 1 POD Per Day. (Last 107 Days) Wednesday WNBA ResearchGiven that 4 teams from the ... read more

Monday's Wnba Research:
Monday, July 14hPOD #1 in the Nation:26-15 Last 40 PODs (63%)64-40-3 (61%), Doing 1 POD Per Day. (Last 107 Days) Monday WNBA ResearchSan Antonio vs. SparksThe ... read more

IC's WNBA and MLB Saturday Preview
Oakland A's in a rout yesterday 9-2 (pod) 11 of 13 MLB Winners ( 6 dogs) and 32-17 in MLB last 53 days.Saturday MLB Research (Only AL as I only do AL ... read more

AL and wnba previews for Tuesday
Tuesday, July 8th ResearchPOD #1 in the Nation:61-36-3 (63%), Doing 1 POD Per Day. (Last 100 Days) Tuesday WNBA ResearchHouston vs. PhoenixOver 70% are ... read more

Monday AL Research
Monday, July 7th Research8 of 9 Baseball Winners and 61-36-3 (63%), Doing 1 POD Per Day. (Last 100 Days)Monday AL MLB ResearchKansas City vs. Tampa BayLight ... read more

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IndianCowboy Recent Past Picks

WNBA Basketball

Atlanta Dream @ Phoenix Mercury Saturday July 19, 2008 10:05 pm
The Dream are 6-1ATS in their last 7 road games adn the Mercury are 0-5 ATS their last 5 Saturdays which is no surprise as Vegas makes it difficult for this public team to cover on the weekends, especially saturday, look for the Dream to do extremely well on the road today, hell, ... read more

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WNBA Basketball

LA Sparks @ Houston Comets Saturday July 19, 2008 8:35 pm
Any team going into Houston has to worry, this team is 10-12 but 7-2 at home and all their wins come of late now they have figured how to finish ballgames with the mix of new and old they have. L.A. beat this team in overtime earlier this year, back on July 9th, and Los Angeles does ... read more

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MLB Baseball

Texas Rangers @ Minnesota Twins Saturday July 19, 2008 7:10 pm
Not sure if this is the pod yet, but wanted to go ahead and plug it in the backend. The under is 7-3-1 in the Rangers last 11 road games and the under is 5-1 when the Twins face a winning team at home meaning that their pitchers show up at home against the better teams in the league: ... read more

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WNBA Basketball

Connecticut Sun @ Chicago Sky Friday July 18, 2008 8:35 pm
research: Nearly 70% is riding the road team in Connecticut here and it seems the wheels might be falling off from the Sun from the recent forfeit they took at the hands of the Shock. Conn beat this team by 2 on the road last time out and of course, Chicago has revenge from that ... read more

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MLB Baseball

Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays Friday July 18, 2008 7:10 pm
Burnett is 5-2 over his last 7 starts, he comes off a great start at home against the Yankees where he gave up just 1 run in 8 innings for a 1.08 era, he got rocked against Tampa bay his last start for a 7.5 era as he gave up 9 hits in 6 innings and 5 runs, Shields comes off a rough ... read more

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WNBA Basketball

Detroit Shock @ Washington Mystics Friday July 18, 2008 7:05 pm
Let's feed off yesterday: research: Nearly 70% are riding the Shock on the road here not suprisingly, and Detroit did cover a 9 point spread by beating this team by 13 at home earlier this yaer, that game pushed at 145 when Detroit was at home in that ballgame, Do note that Detroit ... read more

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MLB Baseball

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Colorado Rockies Thursday July 17, 2008 9:05 pm
Research:Maholm has pitched well in his last 6 of 7 starts which has all been quality, as he has made a big come back the second half of this season, while Jiminez, had a 4.50 era against the Mets in his last start as he nearly outdueled Pedro and lost 0-3 on the road at New York. ... read more

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MLB Baseball

San Diego Padres @ St. Louis Cardinals Thursday July 17, 2008 8:15 pm
Research: Normally when a pitcher pitches against a team one day, and then goes immediately his next start against that team, he struggles. Normally when a pitcher goes against the Dbacks, they struggle given that the Dbacks are a great contact hitting team, but Peavy broke both ... read more

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MLB Baseball

New York Mets @ Cincinnati Reds Thursday July 17, 2008 7:10 pm
Research: Santana is actually 8-7 this year but he does have a Sanatana like ERA at a 2.84 for the season. On the road, Santana is 4-4 with a 3.01 ERA, he faced the Reds earlier this year at home and despite giving up 10 hits in 6 innings, he only gave up 3 runs as the Mets went ... read more

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WNBA Basketball

Minnesota Lynx @ Houston Comets Thursday July 17, 2008 12:05 pm
The main reason for this selection is that Houston comes off 3 straight road losses, they just played this team and this is similar to a home and home for Houston who now returns home after a double-digit loss on the road in what was their last game of the road trip, they now return ... read more

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