Kendall Holiday Mountain West Analysis 9/29/07

by: Kendall Holiday

Air Force at Navy (-2.5)

This is another good match-up this weekend that will be an interesting football game. Air Force has done well ATS going 2-1 thus far and has victories over Utah and TCU in the Mountain West. They were handled easily last weekend by BYU in our Mountain West Game of the Year. This is a different Air Force team than you might be used to as they throw the ball around the lot quite a bit more this season. Navy comes into this game 0-4 ATS this season, after barely beating Duke last weekend. That being said, they did have a nice second half rally in that football game and might have gained some momentum. Navy is 2-2 on the season thus far with losses to Ball State and Rutgers, and wins over Temple and Duke. This is a huge game for both of these teams as it always is. AFA has a stout defense against the run and it needs to show up big this week. AFA is looking to avenge last seasons 24-17 defeat to Navy, and we think they get that done this weekend. We like the Zoomies in this matchup.

Colorado State at TCU (-11)

Colorado State crumbled in the Texas heat last Saturday at Houston and lost by eleven points. TCU has had a rough go of it lately and look to rebound here against a Colorado State team that lost their best player in Kory Sperry for the season to an ACL, and S Klint Kubiak for a bit, due to a bleeding ulcer. TCU comes in 2-2 and 1-3 ATS, while the Rams of CSU have dropped nine games in a row dating to last season. We had thought that that experience would not translate into this season, but that did not appear to be the case last weekend against Houston, when CSU was obliterated in the second half. TCU has struggled to put it mildly, losing on the road to Air Force, and beating an iffy SMU team by 14 points last weekend. That being said, SMU is a rivalry game in the Dallas area, and the Horned Frog defense is still the Horned Frog defense. We look to TCU to put it on Colorado State this weekend, and bring that losing streak to 10 games.

Brigham Young(-5) at New Mexico

BYU is probably the best team in the MWC this season and they will face a stiff test this weekend in New Mexico. New Mexico returned a boat load of starters on defense, and they’ll need their defense to come up with another solid effort this weekend. UNM beat Arizona on the road earlier this season, and look to move 5-0 on the season in their first Mountain West game of the season. Both of these teams like to throw the football, and will find some success there. BYU beat New Mexico 42-17 last season in Provo, and we expect this one will be a much better football game. As we have seen from BYU in their game with Tulsa, you can move the ball through the air. We expect some points here, and no total has been posted yet, and we also think that too much credit is being given to New Mexico here. We think the Cougars win this game by 7-10 most likely.

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