March Madness Research

by: IndianCowboy

March Madness Thursday Research

West Virginia vs. Xavier

You can tell me however you want to in an as many terms as you want to as how great Xavier is but I love the way West Virginia plays. With that being said, for me to make a play, there needs to be exceeding evidence for one team in favor of another. It is tough for me to favor West Virgnia considering Xavier has earned its way here just as much, just as competent and honestly this game could go either way.

Washington State vs. UNC

I am very surprised with the public refusing to take the 8.5 points given to Washington State who is the 4th ranked team in this division, Heck, Washington State opened up as a 2 point favorite and the line now sits at -8.5 - lol. This game is in Charlotte of course which favors UNC and honestly, I can't go against either team here given how Washington State has played and UNC basically having a home game - but over 70% of the public favors UNC here which is worrisome.

Western Kentucky vs. UCLA

Western Kentucky has undoubtedly proven their worth, but do they math up to UCLA? Frankly, I like Western Kentucky here as I do all dogs, but it is hard for me to against UCLA as it is all to often that an underdog that everyone seems can hang tough amounts to nothing against one of the better teams in the nation as Western Kentucky is likely to hang tough early but I can see UCLA taking over later in the game. With all due respect, the competition level is much easier considering Texas A&M and Western Kentucky, no thanks. This game is also in Phoenix, which is very close to UCLA and far away from the hills of Kentucky.

Louisville vs. Tennessee

I think Louisville takes this game, but I have to be stingy with the 3 points here as I do believe it is going to be a close game from start to finish. I can't imagine the #2 seed in Tennessee laying down here as many people are not giving Bruce's boys any credit here and Louisville has played rock solid from start to finish in this tourney. Why have they done so? Well, of course, this team is irritated by their early exit in the Big East Tournament and they are looking to take their frustration out. I can't bet against either team here.

NBA Thursday Research

Early Thursday Line moves

No lines have popped up yet, and a hit to the under on the Dallas vs. Denver game.

Miami vs. Detroit

There are advantages and disadvantages of doing the research early. As I write this, it is 1:05am, which means that many of the lines are not out yet. Once again, Marion is out, Williams is Out and Hamilton is questionable. Give the Heat some credit, they tried to hang tough at New York but the Knicks won by 7 yet covered the closing line. Detroit won by just 5 last time, failing to cover the 16 point spread, they come home after a tough loss to the Raps on the road. Detroit beat this team by 11 on the road. I lean on the under here given that the Heat did not even put up a 100 points at New York - also a lean on the Pistons if the price is not too high, but I'm sure this line will hover around the -16 range when it opens.

Dallas vs. Denver

Dallas beat this team 90-85 on the road last time out but Denver covered the double-digit number in a game that did not include Carmello Anthony. Denver has covered their last 8 of 9, come off a big 14 point win over Memphis, are fighting for a big playoff spot, this will be a big win for them considering Dallas is 7th, Dallas has lost 4 straight covers after having covered 5 straight, I think Denver looks to run Dallas out of the gym today as remember this team has coverd their last 3 home games. There was a hit to the under when the line opened up on this game. Although I favor Denver, there is action in favor of Dallas early on.

Portland vs. Golden State

Golden State beat this team by 6 earlier this year, Portland comes off a 20 point romping of Washington and did beat the Clips on the road, Golden State comes off an overtime loss to the Lakers, I really hate going against the Blazers to begin with although State comes off a loss, likely staying away. Roy is doubtful and Aldridge is probable for this game.

Yesterday: 3-1

Atlanta -8 (POD) (Winner)

The Hawks beat this team by 16 at home back in November, the Bucks then of course won at home back in January by about 8 points, the Bucks do come off a road loss to the Heat, but if this team was truly going to bounce-back they would have gotten some revenge on the Heat on the road after losing to them at home. Bell is listed as questionable for this game for the Bucks, every game in the East is critical for the Hawks for the playoffs, they come off a loss to an Eastern Conference foe in the Bulls on the road, they return home to face a Bucks team with revenge, off a loss to continue to competing for the playoffs. This is very similar to when the Hawks lost to the Rockets on the road and returned home to handle the Clips with ease. I need to be wary of going against the better teams in the league or against teams in a playoff hunt such as the Spurs yesterday with the Magic, but I have no qualms about going against the Bucks who are not headed to the playoffs this year and not the highest of quality teams on the road (although a a decent home team).

Bradley +6.5 (Outright Winner)

Here is my reasoning behind Bradley. Keep in mind that both of these teams are ranked similarly - just above the top 90 cutoff. Bradley has defeated two teams that more difficult one in the Bearcats of Cincy from the Big East and the other of Ohio who are both top 100 teams. They face a Virginia team that has not looked sharp against ODU nor against Richmond , two teams in the top 140. However, I hate laying 3 units on 6.5 points - although Virginia has not covered either spread against two games barely winning them. I nearly took Bradley here for 1 unit on the moneyline +245, but decided to take the 6.5 points and lay the 3 units. I6.5 points is my cutoff and given how Virginia seems to be getting down at the half and closing the game in the 2nd half, I lean on Bradley for the first half, but nevertheless, I'll take the 3 unit wager for the full game. This is at my cutoff for points for an underdog in the ballgame, but Bradley has played a tougher road to get here, Virginia has not looked sharp against two teams outside the top 100, and their luck might be running out against Bradley who is within the top 100 and about 40 spots better than the 2 previous tams that UVA has not covered against in this tourney thus far.

Raptors -1.5 (Winner)

Is this the strongest play of the day, absolutely not. However, the Raptors come off a very dissappointing loss to the Nuggets where they collapsed by 8 points at the half (trust me I know, I was on the Raps over the Nugs in that game). The Raptors do have Bosh back, this is a big game for them as a morale booster, with playoff atmosphere in Toronto, this team needs this win, they haven't beat the Pistons the last 3 games and lost by 14 on the road earlier this year. I look for the Raps at home to get a big win here as remember the Pistons have lost 3 of their last 4 on the road with the sole win on the road being over the Knicks. I'll take the home team here as they started out as the dog and now sit at the favorite despite 2/3rds of the public being on the Pistons.

Va Tech -8 (Loss)

I know the 8 points looks wonderful here for Ole Miss an SEC team, but Ole Miss has lost by this margin and more to teams like Alabama and LSU on the road and Virginia Tech is ranked about 50 spots higher than both of those teams. Virginia Tech is a young team, they love to ante up the score as they did against Morgan State and UAB and this teams feels slighted that they did not make it to the NIT and once again they are on ESPN2 and they area aware that teams across the nation as well as scouts will be watching them. I would not be surprised to see the Hokies, who play in a great atmosphere at Virginia Tech look to dominate an Ole Miss team at home and win by double-digits. I like the crowd behind Va Tech, they have played great thus far at home, Ole Miss now has to hit the road after 2 home wins in the tourney in the NIT, and face a Va Tech out tto prove that they should have made it to the NCAA tourney.

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