IC's March Madness and NBA Research!

by: IndianCowboy

Wednesday, March 12th


NBA

Houston vs. Atlanta
Clippers vs. Magic
Seattle vs. Boston
Cleveland vs. New Jersey
New York vs. Miami
Sixers vs. Pistons
Utah vs. Milwaukee
San Antonio vs. New Orleans
Charlotte vs. Dallas
Memphis vs. Denver
Toronto vs. Golden State

NCAAB

Syracuse vs. Villanova
Providence vs. West Virginia
Cincy vs. Pittsburgh
Seton Hall vs. Marquette
St. Louisv vs. Dayton
Fordham vs. St. Josephs
Duquesne vs. La Salle
Rhode Island vs. Charlotte
Cal vs. Washington
Oregon State vs. Arizona

NBA Wednesday Research

Houston vs. Atlanta

If you want to go against the Rockets at this stage in the game, you are welcome to, but no thanks. The Hawks of course return home after a tough loss to the Magic so honestly this game can go either way. I try to favor underdogs that can win outright (although I haven't been doing it of late which is something that I should return back to). The Hawks lost by 19 points on the road earlier this year to Houston, but they can be a competitive team at home, although they did lose to the Warriors at home recently. lean on the rockets though. Landry and Law are questionable.

Clippers vs. Magic

Kaman is questionable for this ballgame. The Magic come off a big win over the Hawks at home and the Clippers come off a nice win over the Heat in which they won outright and had to claw back. This is likely a double-digit favorite situaiton for the Magic and although I do favor them, I am starting to hate double-digit favorites period due to backdoor covers. no thanks.

Seattle vs. Boston

Seattle once again covered at Indiana as they hit the last basket or 2 and they face a Boston team who is red hot and laying 17. Boston won by 8 on the road, and this is another game where frankly it's **** and a hand basket, anything can happen with such a huge cover. no thanks.

Cleveland vs. New Jersey

There are a lot of rumors that JZ, who is a part owner of the New Jersey Nets if I am not mistaken is going to make a huge offer for Lebron James once his contract with the Cavs runs out. In fact, they are looking to be business partners in many fields. I say this because whenever Lebron goes to Jersey he cleraly has something to prove each time. This time struggles at the half of every game, and then comes storming back to cover. This can be seen in the Knicks game and most recently in the Portland game. New Jersey has beat this team in back to back games in 2007 and looks for the series sweep here as Jersey has won 105-97 and 100-79. This is a game that the Nets can win outright as they come furious after a tough roa trip - and don't forget, the Cavs did lose on the road to the Nets this year and the Cavs also lost to the Bulls on the road this year.

New York vs. Miami

Curry is out, Wade is out, Haslem is questionable, and Banks is questionable - but despite all this, the Heat nearly beat the Clippers at home and now face the lowly Knicks. NY beat this team 88-84 last time out, comes off nearly a 30 point thumping on the road to Dallas and although I do like the Knicks here, say what you want about the Heat, but they could win this game as I saw that game against the Clips and they played fairly well. If Davis shoots well again, they very well could win outright. Actually, as I look at this game closer, it has a decent shot of going over given that New York comes off less than a 80 performance, defense is not primary for either team and both could run up the score here. But, I don't know if I trust the outside shooting of the Heat.

Sixers vs. Pistons

Detroit beat this team 86-78 and 83-78 earlier this year. This is quite a lot of points for the Sixers who can be a very competitive team, mostly at home, but they did cover the 9 point chalk last time. The last 2 games between these 2 teams went under by the way as well. The Sixers did win at Milwaukee, Phoenix and the Clippers, all relatively comfortable covers, so they should do well in my mind in this game today. Detroit comes off 4 straight cover losses although they have won 7 of their last 9 games straight up. I think the sixers likely cover here coming off a bad loss.

Utah vs. Milwaukee

Utah beat this team 98-87 at home and I would love to take Milwaukee here, except for the fact this Jazz team does come off a loss and the Bucks who are typically solid at home, get a chance to possibly win this game outright here. I assume this line will be very similar to the Bulls, but I am laying off given that I do think that the Jazz are likley to cover, but both teams come off tough losses. Deron Williams is doubtful for this game and he played 40+ minutes dropping 20 points yesterday against the Bulls.

San Antonio vs. New Orleans

San Antonio beat this team 98-89 at home earlier this year and got their revenge and the Hornets come off a tough loss at Houston - a game in which they had revenge - so they are likely ill going into this game. Once again no line here, but I do favor the Horntes at home as after all, the Spurs did lose on the road at Denver, Phoenix and only beat the Bucks by 2 on the road. Looking forward to the release of this line when it comes out.

Charlotte vs. Dallas

Charlotte are the winners of 5 straight and 6 straight covers. Heck, they are not that far off the Playoff race either with their recent run. They lost 102-97 but that game was a lot closer than the final score showed. I want to see this line shoot out but I'm hoping for Charlotte to be a dog by 9 or more especially given the big Dallas win in their last game. Charlotte played Boston relatively close and did win at Washington and Minny fairly handily in hitting the cover, so looking for a decent line here. They did all this without Gerald Wallace - the bobcats did - and he might be back for this game which I assume will be a boost but I don't want it to mess with the mojo of this team right now.

Memphis vs. Denver

Denver beat this team 106-102 last time out but that was a game without Melo if I am not mistaken. Memphis is horrible right now and the game against the Suns showed that. Once again, this is similar to Memphis vs. Boston - no thanks. I do think Denver likely buries this team and hits this cover as well, but once again, too many points.

Toronto vs. Golden State

Toronto does show bite, you saw it at the Lakers as they covered and face a Warrior team 106-100 on the road. This team is just 2-6 since the Bosh injury and are 2-4 ATS consequently. I think this game will be a lot like the Warriors vs. Blazers game recently in GS as I do want to take the Raptors here, but might prefer to take the Bobcats, maybe the Bucks or the Hornets.

College Basketball Wednesday Research

Big East Tourney (Madison Square Garden, New York)

Syracuse vs. Villanova

This game is in MSG of course and given Cuse' home court advantage and this team's history last year, they are getting the love from the public about 2 to 1. These are 2 top 50 teams, with Cuse ranked slightly higher and they split the series earlier this year and both of these teams won their last 2 ballgames coming into this ballgame. I like Cuse here, but I can see 'Nova winning. no thanks.

Providence vs. West Virginia

Providence lost to 'Nova in their last ballgame and wvu is a top 25 team playing a providence team that is a top 100 team. They beat this team by 8 on the road and 27 at home and Providence did beat Uconn at home. I like Providence a bit here to hang tough, but I think there are better wagers and frankly some better dogs out there as Providence struggles on the road at times given their big double-digit losses on the road times this year.

Cincy vs. Pittsburgh

Cincy is a top 100 team playing Pitt who is a top 30 team. Cincy comes off a 45 point loss to Uconn and of course, they lost to Uconn by 1 point at home and they layover at the Airport really affected this team in my opinion. Not to mention Uconn is very good this year which is a surprise to many - maybe even themselves. Pitt comes off a very nice win over Depaul, but they did struggle against Cincy this year losing by 3 on the road and winning by 6 at home. I wish I could buy that extra half a point here to get it up to +9, but I think Cincy will hang tough today personally as Pitt finds it tough to blow teams out on the road and I like the fact Cincy comes off a massive blowout loss.

Seton Hall vs. Marquette

Seton Hall is a top 100 team facing Marquette who is a top 25 team. Seton Hall has lost by 25 to Marquette at home and 5 to Marquette on the road. SH comes in losing 8 of theirl ast 10 including a sickening home loss to Rugers who is a top 200 team and one of the worst teams if not the worst team in the conference. Marquette comes off a 15 point loss to 'Cuse on the road so they are not in a good mood either. This team beat Rutgers by 30 at home and Pitt by 18 at home. I haven't decided yet, but I have a feeling Marquette ends up winning this game by 20+.

Atlantic 10 Tourney

St. Louis vs. Dayton

St. Louis has not fared well against Dayton of late losing 57-68 at home and 36-63 on the road. St. Louis is a top 125 team and Dayton is a top 75 team. I would love to take Dayton here, but St. Louis comes off one of the worst losses in school history to Duquesne on the road so they are obviously not iin a good mood coming into this game. I know it's an odd spread of around 6 points here, but given Dayton's success and play of late, and even St. Louis comes off a bad loss, I still like Dayton to pull the spread out in the end.

Fordham vs. St. Josephs

Fordham lost to this St. J's team by 15 earlier this year and did beat Umass on the road, Charlotte at home, Temple on the road - essentially all top 80 teams and Fordham is a top 125 team facing a St. J's team that is a top 60 team but is a fickle team at times. St. J's did beat Xavier at home, but this Fordham team is better than when they first played them as they hit their stride late. The A-10 is so competitive this year, that I think a lot of dogs that are 7 points or more, will likely bite in this tourney, just atch for that.

Rhode Island vs. Charlotte

Rhode Island lost to Charlotte 64-74 at home in just their most recent game. RI limps into the tournament having lost their last 6 of 7 and Charlotte comes in having won 4 of their last 5. I do think Charlotte should do very well today, but I have to respect RI's history and revenge factor here, think there are some better games out there with a better chance of a larger cover.

Pac-10

Arizona vs. Oregon State

Arizona is a top 35 team, of course, this game is in the Staples Center, Coach Olsen will be back with this team next year and they beat this team by 13 at home and 36 points on the road. I have an odd feeling of a backdoor cover here for Oregon State or they might surprise some people, but there are better games of value out there today imo than this rat race.

Cal vs. Washington

Cal is a top 70 team facing a Wash team is ranked in the top 70 as well - Wash is ranked slighly higher in the PR but it is isnigificant at this stage in the game. Cal lost to Wash by 3 points at home but beat them by 4 on the road earlier this year. This game is very similar to Rhode Island vs. Charlotte a lot of ways imo. Cal has lost 7 of their last 8, but their schedule has been brutal against USC, UCLA in back to back games, losing by a combined 5 points. Wash comes off losing by 5 points to their rivals in Washingotn State who are a top 20 team and much better this year than in years' past. Brockman is listed as doubtful for this game and Hardin questionable, but I eprsonally feel that Cal gets fired up from the nose job at UCLA and this game is in the Staples center and they bounce-back well today imo.

Personal Note:

March Madness is in full swing, which means so is my life. here we go. I have a feeling this will be one of the best madness seasons to date for me personally.

I was in Vegas for 9 months years ago before leaving to start grad school. I went there to learn about writing odds, worked for sportsadvisors.com as a writer and analyst and at that time sold whowillcover.com when I left there, the website that my buddy and I started up (sold it to sportsadvisors and brandon). I came across a gent who at that time was 68, thus he is 72 now. He helped me develop a part of the spreadsheet that I have today and in many ways was my mentor. He contacted me yesterday and occsaionally give sme feed back as he does read this blog frequently as he still wagers and looks at the research I put up and essentially stated:

"Listen, your strength is your research, it always has been. Your success in the past has been the research and the spreadsheets that you created. If you want a structure to live by regarding your philosophy of betting, then do this. Research the **** out of games. Be selective, Prefer Dogs that can win outright as you always have, but don't limit yourself and do take favorites when they have a strong correlation to cover, stay away from gut feelings that is not supported by research as it is just not worth it, be confident in your picks and your hard work, don't be arrogant and stay humble, stay up beat and even keel regardless of wins and losses, and simply work hard, kick some *** and let gambling Gods take care of the rest as if you do this, I promise you things always take care of itself." Best advice I have heard in a long time as I consider him my mentor over the past few years and might even keep that as my signature just to read it every morning. Let's Roll.

IndianCowboy Past Articles

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4-1-1 Last Weekend in Football and 2-0-1 on Saturday including Utah Outright and Florida as the POD Winner. NCAAF Navy vs. Ball StateNavy is well known ... read more

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Last Weekend:2-0-1 College Football Saturday and 4-1-1 Overall Weekend, 5* Selections,2-0 last Weekend & 14-3 Lifetime now. Minny vs. PhoenixThe odds ... read more

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NFLPOD hitting at 60% the Last 5 Months, Doing 1 POD per day. Seattle vs. San DiegoCharlie Frye had an unceremonious under 50 passer rating in his last ... read more

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Friday, August 22ndFriday: 1-0 (POD: San Fran/Chicago Over: Winner by Halftime), Thursday: 2-0 (POD: Angels, Underdog: Winner), 3-0-1 Last 4 NFL Preseason ... read more

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WNBA Basketball

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College Football

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