MLB The Hidden Numbers

by: Mr East

Those that have followed me, and are clients are well aware that I have a penchant for finding huge runline underdogs in the range of +160 to +200 and have turned them into very profitable wagers. There are many secrets to runline wagers in baseball, but most of your average bettors, just don't understand the mechanics behind them and where the money is to be found. I'll offer some of my tips on just how to find the hidden numbers in baseball.

It starts by finding each individual strength, and weakness, and find situations where they are either at their strongest for the team you wish to wager on the runline, and which is weakest if you want to bet against them. It is clear, in anything in life, if you attack the most vulnerable area, your going to have the best results. let's start with finding those vulnerabilities.

Major League baseball teams try to tailor their pitching and hitting to their home park to create an advantage, and some teams make better fits than others, so let's see as we approach the All-Sar break, and have enough meaningful stats, who is doing the best job. (significance starts at +/- 0.6)

There are 6 teams that have scored +0.6 runs or more in their home park, than they do on the road.

DETROIT  +0.9

COLORADO +0.8

MINN +0.7

BALT,CHC,TX ALL +0.6

There are also 2 teams that have been worse at home

CWS -0.6

CLEVE -0.6

The next thing is how do teams do vs left or righthand pitching.( Significance starts at +/- 1 run)

TEAMS THAT ARE REDUCED BY LHP:

STL  -1.4

BLT  -1.2

AZ   -1.1

TEAMS THAT ARE BETTER VS LHP:

ATL  +2.1 *****

BOS  +1.3

CLEVE  +1.1

LAD  +1.0

The next step is to look at teams that have won the most games by 4 or more runs, to see where the real power is:

TOR 23

TB   22

BOS  22

MINN  19

NYY   19

Then look at the teams getting blown out by 4+ runs the most:

KC   24

DET   21

CWS  19

CLEVE  19

SD    19

NEXT WE LOOK AT TEAMS THAT WON THE MOST GAMES BY 2+ RUNS:

BOS  35

NYY  35

TB   35

COLORADO 34

SF   34

NEXT WE LOOK AT THE TEAMS THAT HAVE LOST THE MOST BY 2+ RUNS:

WASH  43***

CLEVE   37

SD   34

BALT   34

AZ   33

So now that we have the numbers what do we do with them? 

You have to look at the columns for 2 things. The first is, when is a particular team in the worst possible position to win? I'll present an example:

ARIZONA:

They are at their absolute worst when facing a LHP where they score -1.1 runs a game less than they do against a righthand pitcher, and are also in the bottom 5 in games lost by 2+ runs at 33. I would look for value fading them on the road to the runline vs a LHP. If you did season to date, you'd have a winning record , and getting a dog line to boot!

The second place to look is finding the HIDDEN NUMBERS.

What I mean by hidden numbers is this. Boston is no surprise having won 35 games by 2+ runs, nor are the Yankees with their 35 wins. The surprise is, the SF Giants, and Colorado Rockies have each won 34, just 1 less. While you won't find much value playing the Red Sox, or the Yankees at -1.5, consider the fact that Colorado, and SF are on that same level, with bargain prices, as they have each won just as many!

Much of sports wagering is about hidden numbers, as that is where the value lies. I utilize these hidden numbers, as well as many others to create the high level of winning on the runline in baseball, as the numbers show where the market inefficiencies lie.

Here's to wishing you a productive finish to MLB, and if you need help, my records are posted here, and look forward to seeing you in football that is right around the corner, where I was #1 in both NFL, and NCAA.

EAST

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