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MLB Overrated Pitchers
by: Doc's Sports
One of the hardest but most important tasks baseball handicappers face is deciding which pitchers are good value, and which one aren't worth risking your money on. The best and most obvious way to do that is by looking at statistics. Win-loss record and earned run average are the tools that most bettors rely on most heavily, but they can sometimes be misleading. Here's a look at three pitchers with fancy-looking numbers who aren't as reliably as unbeatable as their numbers indicate.
Daisuke Matsuzaka - This discussion came a day too late. After starting out at 8-0, Matsuzaka was en route to a loss against the lowly Mariners last night before he injured his back and had to leave the game. He escaped a blemish on his record because he didn't get a decision, but it was just another example of where he hasn't been pitching as good as his record would indicate. Last night's game was the sixth time in 11 starts that Matsuzaka hasn't made it out of the sixth inning. In four of those starts he didn't make it past the fifth. When you are betting on Dice-K you are paying a premium because of his name. Because he doesn't have particularly good stamina, though, a lot of what you are betting on is beyond your control - you can't know which relievers will appear before the game. That robs the pitcher of some of his value. It's not just that he gets tired early, either. He can burn up pitches like few other. In four of the five games he was pulled from before the sixth he had already thrown over 100 pitches.
More significantly, he hasn't consistently been pitching well. His ERA has dropped from 4.40 last year to 2.53 so far this year, but that doesn't tell the whole story. The strikeout-to-walk ratio is a good indicator of the control a pitcher has. It was 2.5/1 last season. This year it has dropped down to 1.45/1. He hasn't been as crisp this year as he was last year. What he has been this year, though, is lucky. He wasn't sharp against Kansas City, but his team hit two grand slams to secure the win. He had terrible control against Detroit, walking eight in five innings, but the struggling Tigers could only convert that into one run. He allowed four runs in five innings to the Yankees, but opposing pitcher Phil Hughes struggled even more. He wasn't strong against Texas, but Rangers' starter Luis Mendoza was as bad as a pitcher can possibly be, and Matsuzaka had an eight-run cushion after four innings. Matsuzaka has been far from terrible, but he hasn't been nearly as dominant as he seems, and his record should start to reflect that. That means that there will be significant value in his opponents in coming games.
Vicente Padilla - The Rangers' starter is 7-2, and he is given the Rangers consistently solid starts - something that the team certainly isn't used to. He's currently the most profitable pitcher in the majors. Despite the booming start, though, Padilla has the look of a pitcher ready to fall back to earth - or at least to pitch more like Vicente Padilla. A big part of the reason for that is history. Padilla has six years as a starter under his belt, and he was a reliever for three full seasons before that. He's been good enough to stick around that long, but he is the ultimate journeyman. He was 15-10 in 2006, but he had losing records the year before and the year after. Overall, he is just 79-73 with a 4.21 ERA. It's not unprecedented for a pitcher to come from nowhere to put together an incredible season - Fausto Carmona and his jump from 1-10 to 19-8 comes to mind. Carmona showed significant statistical improvements in his breakout year, though, and Padilla hasn't to the same extent. His K/BB ratio is well below career highs. His ERA is down significantly from last year, but still not at a career best, and worse than 37 other starting pitchers in the majors. It's easy to see that Padilla could put together a solid year - especially if Josh Hamilton keeps hitting like he is. It just doesn't seem at all realistic that he will keep up his current torrid pace.
Ryan Dempster - This is another guy that fits into the same category as Padilla. He, like me, is from Western Canada, so I have always kept an eye on him. That's why it was a particular surprise when he was moved to the Cubs' rotation this year. This is Dempster's 11th year in the pros, but he hasn't been a regular starter since he was with Cincinnati in 2003. He underwent Tommy John surgery later that year, and he came back late in 2004 to join the Chicago bullpen. He's been a reliable closer since he came back, but nothing he has done in recent years lent us a clue to what he has done this year. He has started out at 6-2, and his ERA is just 2.56. It's difficult to compare his current stats to those in recent years because of the differences between starting and closing. You also can't really compare the current starter to what he accomplished in his earlier starting days because Tommy John Surgery often creates a totally different pitcher. There is one thing that really sticks out, though, and gives me cause for concern. If he makes it into the fifth inning in his next start he will have pitched more innings already this year than he pitched in three of the last four seasons. It's still May. His arm is going through strain that it isn't used to since the surgery. It seems quite reasonable to believe that Dempster will take a step back as the season progresses. That could mean value for the other team when he takes the mound.
by T.O. Whenham - 05/28/2008<P>
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NFL Football
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Houston Texans Thursday August 28, 2008 8:00 pm
2 Unit Play. #119 Take Tampa Bay over Houston (Thursday 8:00 pm) This game features two 2-1 teams ready to play their final preseason game in Houston, TX. The Bucs still have numerous quarterbacks on their roster and expect Luke McCown, Brian Griese, and Chris Simms to all see ... read more
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College Football
Vanderbilt Commodores @ Miami Ohio Red Hawks Thursday August 28, 2008 7:30 pm
4 Unit Play. #6 Take Miami (oh) Redhawks over Vanderbilt Commodores (Thursday 7:30 pm ESPN U) Big revenge game for the Red Hawks, as they were beaten 24-13 in Nashville last season. Vandy was a more talented team in 2007 led by an outstanding offensive line, consisting of five ... read more
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MLB Baseball
Florida Marlins @ Atlanta Braves Thursday August 28, 2008 7:10 pm
3 Unit Play. #953 Take Florida over Atlanta (7:10 pm MLB.tv) The rubber game of this series takes place on Thursday night at Turner Field in Atlanta, GA. Not a chance that this number should be so low since this is a complete pitching mismatch and we will take full advantage of the ... read more
Doc's Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Doc's Sports
MLB Baseball
Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals Wednesday August 27, 2008 8:15 pm
3 Unit Play. #914 Take Over 8 in Milwaukee @ St. Louis (8:15 pm MLB.tv) The Brewers have been an offensive machine of late and the Cardinals just could not get a big hit last night off of Ben Sheets. This is a must win game for St. Louis and expect them to cash in on some of ... read more
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MLB Baseball
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees Wednesday August 27, 2008 7:05 pm
Free Play. #924 Take Over 10.5 in Boston @ New York (7:05 pm ESPN) The Red Sox and Yankees are set to do battle in game two of this series, as the Red Sox will likely visit the Stadium for the last series. Sir Sidney Ponson will take the mound for the home team and he was terrible ... read more
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MLB Baseball
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies Wednesday August 27, 2008 7:05 pm
#905 Take New York -155 over Philadelphia (7:05 pm MLB.tv) This is the marquee series in the national league this week with first place in the NL East on the line. Game two takes place on Wednesday and will feature a complete pitching mismatch as Johan Santana will toe the rubber ... read more
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MLB Baseball
Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals Tuesday August 26, 2008 8:15 pm
#962 Take Over 8 in Milwaukee @ St. Louis (8:15 pm MLB.tv) For whatever reason, Ben Sheets has not been the same pitcher since the arrival of C.C. Sabathia. Sheets has allowed three or more runs in seven of his last eight starts and this sets up for a perfect situation with the over ... read more
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MLB Baseball
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies Tuesday August 26, 2008 7:05 pm
Free Play. #952 Take Over 9 in New York @ Philadelphia (7:05 pm MLB.tv) A critical series opens up @ Citizens Bank Park when the top two teams in the NL East are set to do battle. This game features a pair of veterans and neither one has the stuff to keep these powerful line-ups ... read more
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MLB Baseball
Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners Monday August 25, 2008 10:10 pm
3 Unit Play. #919 Take Minnesota (-1 ½ RL) over Seattle (10:10 pm MLB.tv) Francisco Liriano has been a different pitcher since coming back to the big leagues and appears to have found grove from his rookie season in 2006. He is 2-1 with a 1.50 E.R.A. in his career against ... read more
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MLB Baseball
Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels Monday August 25, 2008 10:05 pm
3 Unit Play. #918 Take Los Angeles (-1 ½ RL) -115 over Oakland (10:05 pm MLB.tv) It seems like these teams met every week, but the Halos have had success of late winning four of the last five games and have gotten some pressure from Tampa Bay for the best record in the American ... read more
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