Looking ahead in the Western Conf. (Plus WNBA)

by: Andre Gomes

If in the Eastern conference we know that Detroit will be in the conference final and that we will probably know what to expect from the series between Boston and Cleveland after tonight's Game 4, the Western conference semi finals are on-fire with both series being tied at 2-2 right now, with the home team winning all eight games and covering the spread at the same time. And with so very little separating the quality of Lakers/Utah and Hornets/Spurs, we can't predict even just one of the finalists of this conference this season. But let's start with the series between the Spurs and the Hornets today and tomorrow I will talk about the series between the Lakers and Utah.

Everybody is considering the Hornets as the favorites to win the series, as they just need to win all their four home games in this series. And the crutial word in here is "just". Do you think defeating at home the Spurs by four times in a row in a playoffs series is easy? In the past three seasons, the Spurs have lost their first two road games in a series for four times. Do you what happened in their third road game of those series? They won it in all four series.

2004/2005 Season:

Western Conference Semi Finals:

# Game 3 @ Seattle: Seattle 92, San Antonio 91

# Game 4 @ Seattle: Seattle 101, San Antonio 89

# Game 6 @ Seattle: San Antonio 98, Seattle 96

NBA Final:

# Game 3 @ Detroit: Detroit 96, San Antonio 79

# Game 4 @ Detroit: Detroit 102, San Antonio 71

# Game 5 @ Detroit: San Antonio 96, Detroit 95 (OT)

2005/2006 Season:

Western Conference First Round:

# Game 3 @ Sacramento: Sacramento 94, San Antonio 93

# Game 4 @ Sacramento: Sacramento 102, San Antonio 84

# Game 6 @ Sacramento: Sacramento 83, San Antonio 105

Western Conference Semi Finals:

# Game 3 @ Dallas: Dallas 104, San Antonio 103

# Game 4 @ Dallas: Dallas 123, San Antonio 118

# Game 6 @ Dallas: Dallas 86, San Antonio 91

These aren't certainly good news for the Hornets, as they don't if they lose the next game at home, the series will be over in the Game 6 at San Antonio. It's true that the Hornets have easily defeated the Spurs in the first two home games, but three major things have changed since that: First of all, Bowen is now defending Peja and not Paul. Since that change was made in the Game 3, Peja has just scored a combined of 14 points in two games, after scoring 22 points in the Game 1 and 25 points in the Game 2. Also Duncan doesn't have fever and flu-like symptoms anymore. That was shown where he shot 10-13 FG, while scoring 22 points and grabing 15 boards. The third factor has to go with the change in the starting lineup, with Ginobili now not coming from the bench anymore, which is helping the defense of the Spurs in stopping the backcourt players of the Hornets.

If there is a team in the league who has a coach that can solve any problem between games, that coach is Popovich. After the changes he has made in the team, the Spurs have been dismantling the Hornets pretty easily, while alternating two tactics: using Parker and Ginobili to make penetrations to the basket and being aggressive in the defense, using Duncan who has now more space as the Hornets need to be concerned to what Parker and Ginobili can do if they aren't double teamed. With the series being so close and putting face to face the reigning champions and the team with most post season games in the last decade against a team with almost no experience at this level, it's hard not to think that experience will either give the Spurs a road win in the Game 5 or 7. But the Hornets have been underrated hundreds of times this season and they have already proved that they can beat anyone, anytime. Right now the series is pretty much 50/50, as the Spurs have the experience and a coach who is a genious, but the Hornets still have the home court advantage and it won't be easy to defeat them, as they are extremely good in close games, even against teams so experienced like the Spurs.

WNBA Preview: Atlanta Dream

Atlanta is the new team in the league and with this new entry both conferences have now again seven teams each. Surprisingly or not the city seems to like the new challenge and in the first preseason game of the team at home against the LA Sparks, 8000 fans watched the game in the crowd. Wow! But the truth is that this team won't be able to do much in their first season in the league than do what their name exactly says: dream! With Atlanta being a new team, they wanted in the expansion draft new players who have potential to help the team in the future and not in the present. So Atlanta won't have any superstar this season who will be able to solve some games on her own and the scenario isn't the best for them in 2008. Just remember that when Chicago entered the league they went 5-29 in their first season.

The only players who are known by the public and have some ability in order to help raising the team to a competitive level are the guards Betty Lennox and the Brazilian Castro Marques, who are coming from good seasons in 2007. With the competitiveness which will exist in this season, it will be hard for Atlanta to even reach 10 wins this season, but they will be a team that with some momentum will be capable of becoming a moneymaker for us.

For today I have one premium pick! TOTAL PLAY on Cavs vs Boston today! The two games at Boston were extremely defensive, with both games easily going under the total posted. But the first game in Cleveland was completely different with the game going over the total posted by a margin of 14 points! What will happen today in the second game at Cleveland?
Will we have a repeat of the games at Boston or a repeat of the first game in Cleveland? I know the answer, thanks to a great angle I've found for this game! 7-1 POD record in the last 8 days! Don't miss another one today!

Andre Gomes Past Articles

WNBA Preview
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Boston vs Detroit Eastern Finals Series Preview
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WNBA Previews (all teams)
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WNBA Basketball

LA Sparks @ Houston Comets Saturday July 19, 2008 8:35 pm
After a nice 3-0 sweep (10-3 run) yesterday, we pushed back forward and the adjustments I've made brought us to the right direction hopefully. Big rivalry game we have today in the WNBA with Houston facing at home the Sparks. These two teams aren't that far in the standings, as it ... read more

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Minnesota Lynx @ SA Silver Stars Saturday July 19, 2008 8:05 pm
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Chicago Cubs @ Houston Astros Saturday July 19, 2008 7:05 pm
Yesterday the Cubs wasted all the good work of Ted Lilly by losing 2-1 at Houston, where the batters Kosuke Fukudome, Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez were terrible with 0-12! The team have already gave signs of not being at 100% in their last game before the All Star break, when they ... read more

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Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox Saturday July 19, 2008 7:05 pm
The team of the White Sox began in the best way this divisional series against Kansas, defeating them by 9-5. Today the series continues and in my opinion, the Royals will struggle again today, as the White Sox will send a pitcher, who has been very solid at home this season. Gavin ... read more

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WNBA Basketball

Atlanta Dream @ Sacramento Monarchs Friday July 18, 2008 10:05 pm
I have three picks for today, a number higher than the usual, however I've found value in all of them. And this game has an huge totals line. 160,5 points is the second biggest line of the season for Sacramento and only their game against Phoenix had an higher line, while they have ... read more

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Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays Friday July 18, 2008 7:10 pm
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WNBA Basketball

Detroit Shock @ Washington Mystics Friday July 18, 2008 7:05 pm
Washington was terrible yesterday at New York, which allowed my play on the Liberty to be easily won. Today they have a b2b game against Detroit. Even though naturally Washington will try to bounce back today, the truth is that the opponent for today's b2b game couldn't have been ... read more

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Seattle Storm @ Indiana Fever Friday July 18, 2008 7:05 pm
The total for this game is extremely low, just 138 points (that's the number I'll use as reference, even though I've found better). However it doesn't scare me, having in account the teams and the circumstances of this match. We are talking about the best two defenses of the league. ... read more

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WNBA Basketball

Washington Mystics @ New York Liberty Thursday July 17, 2008 7:35 pm
I have to say that right know taking favorites in the WNBA can be dangerous, as the dogs somehow are finding a way to cover lately, as the last 4 ballgames were all dog covers. Saying this, we must realize that this fact won't stop me from trying to find good spots for both sides. ... read more

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Detroit Tigers @ Baltimore Orioles Thursday July 17, 2008 7:05 pm
Detroit is going today to Baltimore to face the Orioles and with Ordonez back after an injury, the scenario of the team is much better, as the team without him went just 7-7. The Orioles are going to use the left hander pitcher Garrett Olson, who hasn't been impressive lately and ... read more

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