Looking Ahead With an Oddsmaker

by: Vegas Jack

Looking Ahead With the Oddsmaker

Richard Williams has been a bookmaker in the offshore industry for over a decade. He was the first person to hire me and is referred to as one of the sharpest minds in the industry. He currently runs betting shops in Hispaniola, Trinidad & Tobago, Margarita and Curacao.

Each week Richard and I email back and forth sharing our thoughts. Today we took a look ahead at things to come…

VJ: VegasJack

RW: Richard Williams

VJ: BCS National Championship, who is in it and what is the line?

RW: LSU Alabama, no question about it. There is an outside shot that Oklahoma State gets a bid with a blowout win against Oklahoma, but I don’t see it happening. Alabama is the only team in the country which could be favored over the Tigers. I have been looking at this rematch for a long time. My initial number is Alabama -1.5. People tend to develop a false perception in rematches. They take too much stake in the previous matchup and jump to a quick conclusion. Bottom line is, Alabama outplayed and outperformed the Tigers in the regular season meeting. Alabama is the better team all around and they have the biggest playmaker in college football (Trent Richardson). If not for a horrid performance by the kicker and a very questionable interception at the goal line, Alabama wins and covers that game. The box score did not do the game justice. The Tide bandwagon got a whole lot lighter after that game went final; I expect betting on this championship game to be very pro LSU. Alabama will raise the Coach’s Trophy January 9th.

VJ: Let’s take a look at a few other BCS Bowls. Fiesta Bowl – The winner of Oklahoma State Oklahoma will meet Stanford. What do you see here?

RW: Looking over all my other bowl projections, this should be the highest total on the board, no matter which Oklahoma team gets a berth. I expect this to be the only bowl with a total in the 70’s. This should open around 72.5, ten touchdowns and a field goal minus the hook. Unlike a regular season game, I will not be moving this total very far up. People do not realize what playing in bowl game off 30 days of rest does to offenses. This 30 day break includes the holiday season where players are off the fields for an entire week. Look at last year’s BCS Championship, a total in the 70’s which was being bet up, up and up…22-19 final. It is so difficult to maintain a pace to score more than 70 points in a bowl game. Teams are coming in rusty, out of rhythm and they tend to tighten up in front of a large national audience. To score that many points, offensive execution must be flawless. There is going to be major value in the under here.

VJ: Speaking of offense, the Houston Cougars will be BCS Bowl bound, probably the Sugar Bowl, if they beat Southern Mississippi this Saturday. The most likely opponent for the at large bid to face the Cougars here would be Michigan. Do you see this Houston team favored over the Wolverines?

RW: No chance. Remember Georgia Hawaii a couple years ago? If the Wolverines end up making it to the Sugar Bowl against Houston, I see the Wolverines as a 6 point favorite. Michigan has the 16th ranked defense in the nation and a secondary that is giving up less than 190 yards per game. They are bigger, quicker and much more physical than anything Houston has seen all year. Perception on these two teams is going to be very one sided. Houston is a perfect example of a public team, 613 yards per game, 52 points per game, 10-2 ATS. Their offensive power combined with a high ranking beside their name playing a somewhat boring Michigan team will result in considerable Cougar action come this January. In my mind the Wolverines may be the best bet of the bowl season if this matchup should take place.

VJ: Let’s switch gears to the NFL; give me the best future bet to win the Superbowl.

RW: Dallas Cowboys. Perhaps the most underrated team in all of football right now is the Dallas Cowboys. The rest of their division is in turmoil with Philadelphia imploding and the Giants hurt at every single position besides quarterback. Dallas has a one game lead in the division and two games to come against the second place Giants. Besides those games against Big Blue, the Cowboys have layups at Arizona, at Tampa and home to Philadelphia. Already winners of four in a row, I expect the Boys to win the rest of their games in this calendar year and head into New York on New Year’s Day 11-4. In big match-ups Dallas is going to be a great bet. They are a little bit under the radar right now and have a sharp bettor’s best friend, Tony Romo. Romo is despised by the public and will never get the support guys like Rodgers, Manning and Brees will get, even though he deserves it. Romo has a great run game behind him and one of the best weapons in the pass game (Dez Bryant). Dallas has very strong defense and can muster a pass rush against any QB. As the weather gets colder and colder, the Cowboys will get tougher and tougher. Come this January, look to bet the Cowboys. Listed at 20-1 right now to win the Superbowl, Dallas is at a great price.

VJ: Anything stand out to you on the card in Week 13?

RW: Jacksonville on Monday Night. I opened this point spread at Jacksonville +3 and I have had to bump it down to nearly a pick em as some of the biggest players I know hammered Jacksonville. The new head coach angle is one of the most profitable in the NFL. Teams playing their first game with a new head coach have a phenomenal record both SU and ATS. Jacksonville has an extra day to prepare for the most over rated and over bet team in the NFL, San Diego. Just like Monday Night against Baltimore, no one is going to be interested in betting the Jags. Even though Jacksonville has the worst offense in the league, they are able to stop anybody. As an oddsmaker I take big stake in a defense that can play inspired football and dictate games. Against Philip Rivers who has become a turnover machine I would be very weary to invest in the Chargers. Listed at +130 on the moneyline, the Jags winning outright are a great proposition.

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