Line Movement

by: Southcoast Sports

Guys, I have been handicapping Professional Sports now since 1986. I was once a young 18 year old that had very little knowledge of Handicapping Sports, but was thrilled by the thought of being able to make a quick buck without having to do manual labor. After many bumps and falls along the way, and twenty two years later, I am still thrilled that I am able to make a living doing what I enjoy most, which is handicapping sports events. I have decided to write a few articles on some of the most common handicapping questions and concerns that have been asked of me over the past years. One of the most common questions asked is: Should I place a wager on a selection if the line moved 1 1/2 or more points in a football game, or if a baseball game moved from -125 to -140 or more? Listed below, I have a scenario that happened just last week on one of my key releases.

It's 4:00 P.M. CST and I have just released my MLB Game of the Week for the first week of July. The selection is on the Minnesota Twins -125 for 4-Units and has a start time of 6:10 P.M. CST. Customer A is a retired Army Major who receives the play instantly by email and gets the play in to his offshore book on the Twins at -125. Customer B is a Corporate Manager that has to work late and doesn't get home until 5:30 P.M. CST! Customer B rushes, in checks his email and discovers that the Twins are now favored by -140. Customer B rushes to the phone and gives me a call asking the all to common question: Is this still a Game of the Week Selection for 4-Units at -140?

My answer to Customer B's question was simple. Yes, it is still a game of the Week Selection! I suggested that he drop the units from a 4 Unit Rating to a 3 1/2 Unit Rating. Customer B thanked me for my advice, hung up, and made his wager at 3 1/2 Units. The Game of the Week release won, and Customer A and B were both happy campers.

Although both customers were happy with the results, it is obvious that Customer B actually made less of a profit than Customer A. Who's at fault here? What could have been done to see that Customer B had the same value in the release as Customer A? The answer: How about release my plays earlier in the day, or possibly even the night before. Sure, I could do that, but that brings back an old memory of mine of a well respected Sports Handicapper that released a Game of the Year selection on a baseball team the night before the game was played. Both starting pitchers were scratched and the team he selected lost the game. You could just imagine the pandemonium that followed when he failed to instruct his clients to be sure to use listed pitchers only.

If you are a Sports Handicapper and you are reading this Article, you are probably all to familiar with the line movement question, as I know we have all been asked this very question time and time again. If you wager on Sports Events and you are reading this, you too can relate to the line movement question. There are pros and cons of releasing plays later in the day, and there are pros and cons of releasing plays earlier in the day. I personally release my plays later in the day to make sure that my customers get a more accurate line. And yes, I do take a chance of losing line value from time to time, but it is better to lose a little line value and make sure the right personnel is in the game, than to release to early and risk looking unprofessional.

Each and every Sports Handicapper has his own unique way of dealing with line movement. For further advice on the subject, please feel free to ask your Sports Handicapper how they would handle the different line movement scenarios that come up from time to time. I am sure they would be more than happy to point you in the right direction, and tell you what has worked for them over the years.

Thanks and Best of Luck.

Slade Henning

Southcoast Sports

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Line Movement
Guys, I have been handicapping Professional Sports now since 1986. I was once a young 18 year old that had very little knowledge of Handicapping Sports, ... read more

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