IC'S INDEPENDENCE BOWL PREVIEW + COMP PICK!

by: IndianCowboy

Colorado vs. Alabama (Independence Bowl - Louisiana)

This game is in Louisiana as essentially the Tide travel well and have a small advantage coming into this game with respect to the crowd.  The Tide are just 6-6 this season and as a Bama fan I can personally tell you there were 4 things that the Crimson Tide wanted to accomplish this year:

1) Hire a coach of strong reputation and sign him to a long-term contract - They got their first choice - Accomplished.
2) Win 7 or more ballgames - Not Accomplished.
3) Beat Auburn - Not Accomplished (6 years of losing and counting - as a Tide fan, I know)
4) Win a Bowl Game - ?

Thus, Saban, had just 3 goals to accomplish this year - #2 to #4 and the first 2 have not been accomplished. He has a chance to salavage at least one of these goals in this bowl game.

Don't forget that the AP Reports that it was Saban's "colorful quotes" is what kept the South Carolina Gamecocks - one of just 10 SEC teams that were bowl eligible - not to get a bowl game as the Tide were selected over South Carlolina for this contest.

 There are some important facts that you should know including that the Tide defense and Colorado defense are both suspect.  The Buffs defense is ranked 66th overall, but a closer look will tell you that their pass defense is ranked 104th in the nation, but their run defense is 32nd and they are 80th in points allowed.  The Buffs are 73rd in the nation in points scored.  The Tide have the 76th best offense, are roughly top 30 in the nation in defense overall.

I have the Tide as a top 45 team in the nation (to South Carolina's credit, I had them as a top 40 team and that is coming from a Tide fan as realy South Carolina should have deserved this bid, but the Tide did play in this bowl game last year and provided one of the best games of the Bowl Season 2006).  The Tide have lost their last 4 straight and they face a Buff team that is ranked in the top 50.  Essentially, the Tide are 5 spots higher. I think this game is likely to go over here as the Buffalo defense is suspect both at home and on the road in giving up points - but they can also exploit the lack of linebacker play for Bama that are just getting used to Saban's system. I have this game around 31-28.

Comp Selection:

IC Comes off a 3-0 Saturday sweep and has hit his last 3 of 4 POD and cashed his last 3 of 4 Comp Selections as well.  He comes off a 1-0 NFL Card on Sunday and looks to remain perfect today. 

Colorado/Alabama Over 51.5

As the research above indicates I do not trust the defense of either of these teams.  I have followed my Tide closely and this years' team have not gotten used to Saban's defense and consequently have allowed their fair share of points. Heck, this team allowed 21 points at home to Louisiana-Monroe off a loss - they can certainly allow that many points on the road - away from home - to a Colorado team that comes off frustrating osses as well.  The Buffs are outside the top 75 in the nation on defense and yielded over 50 points to Nebraska, 55 to Missouri and 47 to Kansas State.  Both of these coaches have had dissappointing years and it is in part to how their respective defenses have played.  The Tide after being frustrated on offense the past few games will be able to score plenty of points and after a frustrating season in the Big 12, Coach Hawkins has nothing to lose and will open up the offense as well as both coaches will be fired up for this game.  I expect a 31-28 type of ballgame with this game going over the posted total. There were 51 points scored against Ole Miss and 54 points scored against Houston - and both games agianst Tennessee and LSU went over as well.  When the Tide play offensive minded teams, games go over and this shouldn't be any different as the Buffs are 5-2 over the posted total of late. 

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