IC's Thursday Research

by: IndianCowboy

Thursday, August 7th

NFL

Giants vs. Lions

7-2-1 Last 5 Days, 39-22 Last 61 PODs (62%),75-48-4 (61%), Normally doing 1 POD Per Day. (Last 131 Days)(4 Months +) and Over 60% in Baseball Last 2 Months + (78 days): 50-31-1 (62%).  The breakdown here is roughly half, with the Giants getting a bit more love at 50%, nothing against the Giants here, but the Lions have consistently look to win their home openers as they need to celebrate something and give their fans something to look forward to, similar to what the Redskins did against the Colts who could care less about the preseason, heck, last season the Colts didn't even win a preseason game if I am not mistaken, but more importantly, the Giants have nothing to prove this game, while the Lions would love to give their fans a little boost here, based on that, a lean on the Lions to win in front of their home crowd and the Giants will look to work more on their depth. I always love fading the Super Bowl Champs from last year as well in the first few games of the following year.

Jets vs. Cleveland

Cleveland is more than a 2/3rds favorite coming into this game, but keep in mind this was a 10 win team last year that did not make it to the playoffs, in fact, it is one of the few times that that has happened. The Jets still have some gaping holes of experience to fill, and the Browns were a playoff caliber team last year that has been chomping at the bit to play again and it would not surprise me if they went on to win this game big. Remember, Anderson always has to feel like Quinn is over his shoulders so I expect him to be sharp and then I expect his backup to be sharp as well. I just hate to see 66% of the public on the Browns here, but I don't think in preseason that truly makes a dent with the books, similar to wnba betting when it comes to public percentages.

Baltimore vs. New England

I typically do not favor home teams that the public backs over 66%, but what more can be said about the Jets who are still young and their offense is lacking and they need to be able to rush the ball, and after all, the Jets offensive line is extremely young as they gave up a lot to draft these newcomers and they need some time to grow, so that is why I favored Cleveland who is the veteran team at home in the dog pound and even if it's a preseason game, it's still the dog pound. As per this game, I have never been a fan of the Ravens or their questionable offense, but I am a fan of all of New England's players including their backups who were stellar last year and don't for one minute think that New England does not plan on winning this game and winning this game big as they would love to bounce-back from the Super Bowl loss, sure, one can say it's the preseason and it doesn't matter for Bill B, nonsense, every game and every play matters for B.

KC vs. Chicago

Roughly 60% favor the Bears here, and I have never been a fan of the KC offense, but if anything, I do favor the under here a bit as I don't like either offense too much and frankly, I think the Bears defense was overrated last year considering the love they were getting from the public at times, as per the Chiefs, my Alabama alum Croyle finally takes the helm it seems, but I believe he will struggle early and often but he does have talent, if anything, I favor the under here, but likely just staying away, I just feel odd about taking the Bears here as I think it will be low scoring and based on that, I wouldn't be surprised if KC indeed won this game outright, no thanks.

New Orleans vs. Arizona

The public is gladly taking the points here with New Orleans it seems as the are backing them at a rate of 55%, Arizona might be one of the most improved teams this year as they have the coaching and the veteran leadership in many ways. The Arizona weather seems to have revitalized Warner as this team put up 102 points in their last 3 ballgames and it is quite evident that Warner in a reduced pressure filled role, is playing much better. This team still has the threat of Boldin, Fitzgerald and of course James on the ground this year. Regardless, I think the public might be over inflating the Saints here as the Cardinals are still a very good team at home regardless of preseason or not. They have this massive stadium and you better believe the ownership wants to win some games in it as they didn't do that too much last year. Besides, I still that New Orleans has some big problems on defense they need to address as their backups are very questionable in reliability and don't forget, Leinart has a thing or two to prove as well, so I think the offense likely reigns here all night long.

Thursday's MLB Research

Toronto vs. Oakland

Oakland is on the road at Toronto here, note that Duch has not won since 7/13, and although he had a 1.5 era at Boston in his last start he still lost, he has yet to face the Bluejays this year, he is still 3-5 with a 2.43 era, he was still an all-start, the league is beginning to figure him out though as his honeymoon grace period is coming to an end it seems, however, it could just be that he gets no offensive help as he has pitched 6 of 7 quality starts of late, Burnett has won 5 of his last 6, he is on a bounce-back after having a 6 era but still winning, he has yet to beat the A's this year though, if anything a lean on the under, but 7 is too rich for my blood.

Yankees vs. Texas

Yanks won nicely yesterday, the game went under finally in Texas, Moose is 8-15 to the under while Feldman is 4-13 to the under this year as they are both strong under pitchers, Mussina has pitched 6 of 7 quality starts, he had a 3 era against Texas last time, but lost to Feldman 1-2 as Feldman cashed as a +170 dog on the road winning at Yankee stadium, Mussina remembers that loss of course and Feldman is coming off back to back starts and the Yankees would like their revenge, the Yanks are not a bad play at all at this spot, except for the fact the juice is extremely high around -150 and the fact that Texas is on a bounce-back, no thanks.

Detroit vs. Whitesox

The Whitesox took care of business at home yesterday winning 5-1, Miner is on a bounce-back today after 5 era start in his last go around on the road at TB, I expect him to pitch better today, remember the Tigers come off a loss as well, Miner did beat the Sox earlier this year 6-4 as he defeated Vasquez, Vasquez hates to face the Tigers who have shelled him for 21 hits and 11 runs in the last 13 innings, having said that Vasquez does have revenge here, but the Tigers are of quality value coming off a loss and a pitcher that is on a bounce-back today. Besides, I just don't think that Vasquez has back to back quality games in him, he has been struggling to put together quality back to back starts.

Tampa Bay vs. Seattle

Tampa Bay had a great come back win from behind yesterday scoring a multitude of runs in the 9th ended by Pena belting a 3 run shot to win the game, they go to Seattle on the road today - right now the only game that I am inclined to play is the Tigers based on value, but note Sonn had a 6 era against the Mariner sin his last start, Felix has yet to face TBay this year and has pitched 6 of 7 quality starts, sure, Tbay has solid value today, but Felix hasn't lost back to back games in quite some time as he typically bounces back after his team fails to win his previous start, no thanks.

WNBA

Season will resume again on August 26th, wnba clients note that your packages simply resume when the season begins back on that date and that your package runs through until the wnba season is over, whenever that maybe, looks like they are taking some time off due to the Olympics.

Thursday's Comp Selection

Cleveland Browns -2.5

Cleveland is more than a 2/3rds favorite coming into this game, but keep in mind this was a 10 win team last year that did not make it to the playoffs, in fact, it is one of the few times that that has happened. The Jets still have some gaping holes of experience to fill, and the Browns were a playoff caliber team last year that has been chomping at the bit to play again and it would not surprise me if they went on to win this game big. Remember, Holcomb always has to feel like Quinn is over his shoulders so I expect him to be sharp and then I expect his backup to be sharp as well. I just hate to see 66% of the public on the Browns here, but I don't think in preseason that truly makes a dent with the books, similar to wnba betting when it comes to public percentages.

write-up: This is a bit of a risky play considering the public is on Cleveland, but I will take my chances with Anderson and Quinn both doing well as this scoring is likely not to stop and of course, this is still the pound a tough place for the young Jets team to play.

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