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IC's Saturday Research
by: IndianCowboy
Saturday College Football
Florida vs. Tennessee
Man, what a game this is going to be. All accounts indicate that Florida should get fired up and blow this team out of the water right? Over 60% are riding Florida and they looked great on national television against Miami getting it done - and Meyer had the sense to go for that additional field goal to make sure he covered the ballgame for his faithful fans. Did you wonder why they were kicking that field goal near the end of the game? Ding, ding, ding - it's all about the cover baby, these coaches know inside and out what the cover is, not saying they bet it, just saying, sometimes, they will use it to get their team pumped like Meyer did telling his Gators in the National Championship against the Buckeyes, that no one respects them, they are underdogged, no one is respecting them etc... and look how that paid out for them. As per this game, Fulmer is on the hot seat, this is Florida's first road game, Tennessee is an extremely tough place to play. This game reminds me of when a few years ago UGA went on the road to face Tennessee in a similar spread and it was a disappointing season, but this team came up big and beat UGA and actually went to the SEC championship that year. I think Fulmer will be gone in less than 3 years after his mini-extension runs up. But, long story short, there is some reverse line movement here and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Vols lose by a field goal given the hot seat all the coaches are and the fact that the stadium will be rocking, leans on the vols and the over here.
Utah vs. Air Force
Don't have much time to write on this game bud, but keep in mind that Utah opened up as a -5 point favorite off shore and now has moved up to -10. Thus, I think the value might have been sucked up out of this game, after all, taking a road chalk team for -10 is tough, and of course, Utah is a heavy favorite by the public, but nevertheless, a lean on the over here, just think the value has been sucked out of it - oddly, Utah still will probably cover as they have a history along with BYU of covering ballgames despite being big public favorites week in and week out.
Ball State vs. Indiana
This game is going to be fun to watch and frankly, it is fun to cap. Ball State is on the road and they are favored by 43% of the public here, so it is not as if Indiana is a huge public favorite here. The line opened up at Indiana -1.5 and has gone up to -3 now where it sits. Both these teams are undefeated and the total sits at 60.5. Nate Davis of Ball State is a stud, having thrown for a completion percentage of over 75% and has thrown for 9 touchdowns and 3 picks. Indiana beat this team by 18 at home last year, so Ball State does have revenge, and they covered the first 2 games in which they were -6.5 favorites - they won both games by double-digits. To be frank, Indiana has not beaten anybody this year and Murray State and Eastern Kentucky do not count while Ball State, for better or worse, beat Akron on the road easily. The spread is low here for a reason imo, I wouldn't be surprised to see a Ball State outright win here in this in-state rivalry.
Wake Forrest vs. FSU
I'll be short and sweet with this write-up, there is no reason why FSU should be favored here. I don't bet the SEC, but given the coaching, the plaers, the discipline and the defense, I like Wake Forrest here for an outright. It is probably one of the best ML out there for an outright here, after all, I understand that FSU has some revenge to dish out to Wake, but I don't like FSU's quarterback situation all that much and I like the veteran group of Wake more. After all, is it that impossible to see Wake win this game outright on the road as the have done previously at FSU or even lose this game by a field goal? I think it's definitely in the realm of possibilities.
Utah State vs. Idaho
Utah State opened up as a -1.5 favorite and they now sit at a -5 point favorite as the line quickly rose. Of course, this is kind of amusing considering Utah State is at home, they are 0-3 and over 60% of the public is on them, and yet they are still favored despite not producing thus far this year. Idaho also has revenge from losing by 5 points last year at home and here is a fact for you, Utah State has never covered back to back spreads in this series since 96/97 - meaning, there is a strong chance that Idaho does well today with that revenge factor, although this rivalry is not talked about much, these teams are not fond of each other. I just couldn't put my money on either of these teams. Obviously, Idaho has the revenge factor, the majority of the public is on Utah State which is not good, but also, keep in mind that Idaho has missed 9 of their last 10 covers. Why put hard earned money on this team? Plus, after losing to Oregon by 42 points on the road, you know how Utah State comes back fired up to play Utah at home? They lose by 48 and were 24.5 point home dogs going into that game and miserably failed. So, this team gets spanked on the road, comes back home, plays their arch rivals and gets spanked even worse. No thanks on either of these teams, there are better games out there imo.
East Carolina vs. NC State
I can't wait for this game. East Carolina opened up as a -6.5 favorite and the public has helped it rise to -7 as this team has become a public team quickly after the 2 quick upsets to start the year. Of course, I faded East Carolina on the road against Tulane and that cashed nicely. Remember, these 2 teams have some history considering that this is an in-state rivalry, and NC State went on the road to beat this East Carolina team last year by 2 scores as a 6 point underdog. So, obviously, East Carolina will be fired up for this game...but, they are favored by 65% of the public. I can see NC State having revenge and playing well, and this team comes off a n 18 point loss to Clemson (but did manage to cover the 21 point spread). I wouldn't be surprised to see a NC State cover, but more importantly, if one leans on NC State as I do, this is a rare occasion where it might go dog/under, as NC State likes to play field position, similar to Miss. State goes dog/under most of the time when they are expected to do well.
New Mexico vs. Tulsa
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LSU vs. Auburn
The odd thing about this line is that opened up at a -1.5 for Auburn, and now has shifted to -2.5 for LSU. Why not? Why not bet on Les Miles and a team that hasn't lost a game in regulation (remember LSU's losses last year were both in overtime). Auburn can't even score more than 3 points with that pathetic offense of theirs and LSU has been having no trouble putting up points with their disciplined play calling - I just wanted to stay away from a game that has such a high amount of public scrutiny and money on it, I'll take the smaller games- remember, the public games are tougher to make money off of, that's why most of my games are middle of the road conferences that are less on the radar and therefore, the lines are more "loose" and have more value. So, I'm staying away, but if I had to pick here, I would take LSU despite them being a public favorite, I just don't trust Auburn, but I'm sure the refs will help out the their home team here, and yes, a lean on the under, but staying away. It might not be a bad idea to wait until the second half, let Auburn take the first half lead and take LSU to cover in the second half.
Temple vs. Penn State
Hey D, it's funny you bring this game up, but it was one of the top 5 choices that I had for Saturday. But, you know how I bet, I hate betting more than 3 games in a day as the more times you but your head against the Vegas the worst. But, this is a great public fade on Penn State. I understand that this is an in-state rivalry but Temple is much better than last year. Remember, this team is returning I think somewhere around 18 starters, their offense is nearly all returning starters, this team opened the season with a big win on the road at Army. What you might not know about Temple, is that they are the best covering team over the past 10 games out of any team in the country if I am not mistaken. They have covered each of their ballgames this year and 8 out of their last 10 dating back to last year. Over 70% are riding Penn State here, but I would not be surprised at all to see Temple lose by 2 touchdowns. In fact, this is my free pick for today. I understand Penn State won big against Syracuse and Oregon State, but I like Temple as the 2 games they have lost this year was by a total of 5 points and that includes an overtime game. I think Temple will cover their 6th straight ballgame going back to last year and go 4-0 ATS thus far this year after this cover. It's as good as any dog out there possibly imo.
Virginia Tech vs. UNC
I just think this is a dangerous game for Va Tech. Remember, the ACC is a much better conference than back in the day as it is different teams that are now the cream of the crop and this includes Wake Forrest, Georgia Tech, with FSU shrinking in significance in the ACC and UNC has come on to the horizon. Remember, I wrote about UNC in detail last year stating that as soon as Butch Davis came on board, he was going to start turning this team around for the better and he certainly has. What better way to prove it than here at home as this team is favored nicely over the Hokies. Of course, this could be the public getting too excited here
Mississippi State vs. Georgia Tech
You are well aware that I love Mississippi State, Coach Croom and what he has done for the program. He has restored integrity, honor and discipline back into a program after my school of the Tide snubbed the once great offensive lineman for Bear Bryant over and over again for the starting job, picking up bums like Mike Shula in the process. Having said that, Croom has an incredible defensive team with great intensity and their recruiting has been great as he attracts solid players from good family backgrounds. Now, if only this team get an offense. I think the best play in this game might be to look at the under, remember, this is the same team that played a 2-3 ballgame (yes, that was the score) against Auburn at home. Tech has a great offensive attack but Miss. State will be well coached here - Paul Johnson is no fool and realizes all Miss. State can do is run the ball and they can't pass worth of diddly as well. Hence, this will be a field position game. But, having said this, remember, Tech comes off a frustrating loss, the are at home, this is an SEC team, and I didn't think it was all that impossible for Tech to win by a score of let's say 21-10 with that new offensive look they had - so they might indeed get out their frustration. So, despite the line doing down, I can see Tech doing well here, either way, lean on the under.
Georgia vs. Arizona State
I'm actually watching this game later on tonight with a group of friends. Of course, I have to remind them that UGA football is relatively new to national prominence considering the Wolverines and Crimson Tide have the most national titles in the nation - with the Tide having far more SEC Titles. Heck, the Tide have won a National Title more recently than the Dawgs. Having said this though, I love watching UGA play football and I like Coach Richt a lot. Nearly 2/3rds of the public are riding the Bulldogs here, who, in all due honesty, should not have covered against South Carolina. They should have won that game, but that game should not have ended up as a push. But, remember, this is a nationally televised prime time game, UGA comes off now moving to 3rd place in the rankings, so this is their chance to pound a PAC team and move up similar to what USC did with an ACC team. Arizona State's defense is no where near the competence of South Carolina's defense which is that team's strength. The UGA defense will give up its fair share of points though as they have done to worse teams thus far, but this team's defense is physical and will take their chances to win the turnover battle. I wouldn't be surprised to see an over here as I think Arizona State gives them a run for their money coming off a loss as they were probably looking ahead to this game.
Miami of Ohio vs. Cincy
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IndianCowboy - Top Ten Cappers Handicapper
Vanderbilt vs. Mississippi
This is an interesting game and if you think too hard, it will make your head hurt. Here, you have a Vandy team that is now becoming a threat in the SEC - after all, this has been going on for some time for those of us that follow the SEC. This team beat South Carolina last year and this year, this team nearly beat UGA in Vandy last year and started the year going on the road to winning a big weekday night football game to start the college football season off. Roughly 60% of the public does favor Vandy here plus the points. Vandy has covered 6 this series 6 of the last 7 years, and I like Ole Miss's offense considerably this year. But, typically I shy away from any team that is a public dog, in other words, if Vandy was favored by 40% of the public I would think about it, but you never want to be on the side of the public for the most part, but more importantly, you don't want to be on the side of a public dog either. I'm staying away but looking forward to the outcome.
Alabama vs. Arkansas
Save the best for last right? My Tide hits the road at Arkansas and what many do not realize is that Arkansas constantly played the Tide tough over the past few years. Remember, Arkansas lost by just 3 points on the road last time out and they are at home here and although the Tide did beat Clemson - that was on neutral footing in Georgia. Thus, look for the Tide to play their first true road contest today and likel struggle as more than likely this game will lead to an Arkansas cover and this game will go over today. In fact, lean on Razorbacks over my Tide - I know Arkansas has won their last 2 games by a total of 5 points, but once again, lean on the Razorbacks to surprise here, probably lose by 7 and this game to go over.
Comp Selection for Saturday
Temple +29
Hey D, it's funny you bring this game up, but it was one of the top 5 choices that I had for Saturday. But, you know how I bet, I hate betting more than 3 games in a day as the more times you but your head against the Vegas the worst. But, this is a great public fade on Penn State. I understand that this is an in-state rivalry but Temple is much better than last year. Remember, this team is returning I think somewhere around 18 starters, their offense is nearly all returning starters, this team opened the season with a big win on the road at Army. What you might not know about Temple, is that they are the best covering team over the past 10 games out of any team in the country if I am not mistaken. They have covered each of their ballgames this year and 8 out of their last 10 dating back to last year. Over 70% are riding Penn State here, but I would not be surprised at all to see Temple lose by 2 touchdowns. In fact, this is my free pick for today. I understand Penn State won big against Syracuse and Oregon State, but I like Temple as the 2 games they have lost this year was by a total of 5 points and that includes an overtime game. I think Temple will cover their 6th straight ballgame going back to last year and go 4-0 ATS thus far this year after this cover. It's as good as any dog out there possibly imo.
IndianCowboy Past Articles
IC's Thursday Research
IC RESEARCH REPORT: We are rolling in College Basketball. 5-2 (72%) on the Year including Niagara +18.5 over top 25 Villanova yesterday, and other winners ... read more
IC Wednesday NBA Research
7-3 Run! We come off a big 3-0 Sunday Sweep and 5-1 Overall Weekend. Let's keep it rolling as I look forward to going 5-2 on the College Baketball Season. ... read more
Full NFL and NBA Research
IC RESEARCH REPORT:Big Wins Yesterday with Auburn +8.5 over Georgia (POD) and TCU +17 Outright over Clemson in College Ball! Let's repeat the Winning ... read more
IC's Thursday Research
IC RESEARCH REPORT: 1-0 in College Football yesterday with a Winner with Kent State and ready to roll again today. Below is your free research for Thursday. ... read more
IC Wednesday Research
IC RESEARCH REPORT: Today's Research Includes: Temple vs. Kent State (This is my POD). Central Michigan vs. Northern Illinois (Free pick). Sixers ... read more
All IndianCowboy Past Articles
IndianCowboy Recent Past Picks
NBA Basketball
Philadelphia 76ers @ Minnesota Timberwolves Wednesday November 19, 2008 8:00 pm
This is the biggest public play of the day. Over 77% of the public are on the Sixers on the road. The bottom line here is to do an appropriate public fade here, one would take take the Twolves. But, I just don't have the confidence nor the galls to take this team to beat ... read more
IndianCowboy Bio and Picks | Articles By IndianCowboy
College Football
Ball State Cardinals @ Central Michigan Chippewas Wednesday November 19, 2008 7:00 pm
This is a huge game. Here you have a top 20 Ball State team (ranked 16th) hitting the highway to play Central Michigan who is 8-2. Ball State note is 10-0 up to this point and 5-0 on the road. Of course, Central Michigan is 4-0 at home this year so something has to give. ... read more
IndianCowboy Bio and Picks | Articles By IndianCowboy
College Basketball
Niagara Purple Eagles @ Villanova Wildcats Wednesday November 19, 2008 7:00 pm
Look, no one said betting College Basketball is simple. We sometimes have to hold our nose as we will remain principled in the systems that we follow and the teams that present value. Due to this, we are 4-2 thus far. Let's continue based on this principle of research ... read more
IndianCowboy Bio and Picks | Articles By IndianCowboy
College Basketball
Nevada Wolf Pack @ San Diego Toreros Tuesday November 18, 2008 10:00 pm
This is a bad spot for San Diego for several reasons. For one, they come off a nice win over Montana State so they are not as sharp as a team like San Diego that comes off a tough road loss to UNLV. Remember, San Diego lost to this Nevada team last year 76-62 on the road. ... read more
IndianCowboy Bio and Picks | Articles By IndianCowboy
NBA Basketball
Miami Heat @ Washington Wizards Tuesday November 18, 2008 7:00 pm
The Wizards are in a great spot today. Granted, I wish Miami would have won on the road at Toronto so they would not be coming off a loss, but I had this game pegged early on as something that I would look into. Look, the Wizards lost by 20 points to Miami on the road ... read more
IndianCowboy Bio and Picks | Articles By IndianCowboy
NBA Basketball
Phoenix Suns @ Utah Jazz Monday November 17, 2008 9:00 pm
Note, that there are a lot of "questionables' in this game. Of course, this could just be coaches playing tricks with each other. Either way, you have Barnes that will return from his suspension this game. Of course, Nash is back after serving his suspension ... read more
IndianCowboy Bio and Picks | Articles By IndianCowboy
College Basketball
James Madison Dukes @ Davidson Wildcats Monday November 17, 2008 6:00 pm
We are 3-1 in College Basketball, let's keep it rolling. I like the Dukes here for several reasons. For one, they are returning 4 starters and 9 letterman overall. They are under a new coach and he has them playing extremely well and remember Brady was the coach ... read more
IndianCowboy Bio and Picks | Articles By IndianCowboy
NBA Basketball
San Antonio Spurs @ Sacramento Kings Sunday November 16, 2008 9:00 pm
I like the under here for several reasons. For one, Tony Parker is still out for this team. And since, Parker's exit in the Miami game, these have been the scores for the Spurs:77@ Houston78@ Milwaukee92 against NY at home82 against Miami (Parker left the first quarter ... read more
IndianCowboy Bio and Picks | Articles By IndianCowboy
College Basketball
Long Beach St @ Wisconsin Badgers Sunday November 16, 2008 4:00 pm
Long Beach State is the same team that went to the NCAA Tourney last year and ended up facing Tennessee in the first round. Look, Long Beach State is a good team. This team only fell short 65-75 to a solid BYU team on the road as 19.5 dogs. Why in the world can ... read more
IndianCowboy Bio and Picks | Articles By IndianCowboy
NFL Football
Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers Sunday November 16, 2008 1:00 pm
I have made a committment to selecitivity and we are sticking to it. After all, we are 1-0 on the week in football given Kent State and I am not forcing plays here as I would much rather go 1-0 over the course of 3 days than go 3-2 over the course of 3 days. After all, ... read more
IndianCowboy Bio and Picks | Articles By IndianCowboy