IC's Research: Monday

by: IndianCowboy

NFL

POD hitting at 60% the Last 5 Months, Doing 1 POD per day.

Seattle vs. San Diego

Charlie Frye had an unceremonious under 50 passer rating in his last start, while Seneca Wallace continues to be the sound backup for the Seahawks team, the Seahawks remember were solid last year as they finished the year at 10-6 and ended up losing to the Packers on the road in the playoffs. This team still continues to be solid in the NFC West and in fact, you can get them at a 1/1 price right now to win the NFC West - considering the threats are from the likes of the Cardinals, 49ers and Rams, this team has a rock solid chance of getting done once again. In fact, this might just be my top future bet to see this team come out on top in the NFC West especially at even money. As per this game, won big at Minnesota and defeated the Bears at home by a field goal, San Diego, if you look at their ATS stretch has actually covered their last 10 games stretching back to last year, they come off a road cover at the Rams and bea the Cowboys big at home in the first game, the public is split 50/50 on this game, and note that this was the same situation with the Bills vs. the Colts yesterday and the Bills ended up winning the game outright. The under has taken a hit coming into this game as well as it opened up at 37.5 and to be honest, I see value in the Seahawks on the road here with the points as they have looked sound in the first 2 games, but the Chargers at home are another team, look at game 1 in the preseason, plus, one only knows who gets what reps today, and on top of that, this team has covered 11 in a row.

MLB

Whitesox vs. Baltimore

There are five total games for Baseball on the card today, action starts with the Whitesox vs. Baltimore, note that yesterday, the Whitesox managed to win 6-5, that's fine they won, just irritates me they scored 1 run in the bottom of the 9th to cause my free pick to go to the wind as I had the under 9.5, which caused it to go to a 5-5 tie and extra innings, just goes to show it is a pain in the behind to take an under with the whitesox at times, despite the fact that 4 of those runs came in 1 inning, Richard goes for the Whitesox, he comes off a shutout performance in his last start, before that he had given up 26 hits in 13 innings, not lasting 5 innings in any of those ballgames, he has not faced Baltimore this year, the Orioles put on an extended effort to make a comeback against the Yankees in their last ballgame against Rasner and fell just short 7-8, Waters for the Orioles is on a bounce-back, note the Sox have never faced him, but also note that Waters had a 7+ era in his last start so he is in for better start (he did win that start though), but the one thing about the kid is that he gives up an average of 8 hits the last 5 inns or so, so he does get hit, nonetheless, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Richard on a let down and Waters pitch a bit better today than he did against the Red Sox.

Cleveland vs. Detroit

Detroit lost 3-7 on the road to KC in the last ballgmae, Cleveland won 4-3 on the road at Texas once again as they played great ball in Texas and now look to carry that to Detroit. Jackson has had back to back 5 eras at home against Kansas City and Baltimore, the kid does give up his fair share of hits, both ballgames went well over that he started in, Galaraga is 5-1 over his last 6 starts, he has beat the Indians 3 times this year, but the last time, he had a 5+ era against them, giving signs that the Indians are getting a beat on the kid, the Indians have evidence that they are getting better by the following trend:

Galarraga in about 7 inns gave up 1 hit in his first start,
Galarraga in about 6 inns gave up 4 hits in his next start,
Galarraga in his last start in about 5 1/3 inns gave up 5 hits with a 5+ era.

I bring that up to say maybe the Indians have their day here and they have been playing well on the road, but Galarraga is 12-4 with just above a 3 era overall this year as well. It is quite possible that both teams could have some success hitting the ball today.

Texas vs. Kansas City

Note, that Texas had a rough go against the Indians, now hit the road here against KC, Feldman is 0-2 over his last 5 starts, has over a 6 era on the road, had a 4.5 era against KC in his last start, Meche is 4-0 over his last 7 starts, had a 1.5 era in his last start vs. Texas but the Royals still came out on the losing end, he's a 10 game winner and the royals have won 6 of his last 7 starts, he has pitched 6 of 7 quality starts, and frankly, there is no reason why the Royals would be at this small of a price here, I actually had them around -155 prior to the line being released as they have the pitching edge today, if anything a lean on the Royals as Meche has been solid and the Royals did put up a 7 spot on Detroit yesterday winning 7-3. Feldman does have control problems giving up 21 walks in the last 7 ballgames.

Oakland vs. Angels

Angels had a great come back against the Devil Rays to take a game at home, they were down for most of that game and Seattle hit the RL against Oakland winning 8-4, a game they I mentioned about the RL, but didn't want to take it with Felix although it made sense for several reasons, Braden has only had relief appearances against the Angels in 5 innings, and 3 of those 4 outings were sound but the Angels did get to him once for 2 runs in a relief appearances, he is on a bounce-back of sorts here today after a 4.44 era at Minny which is a tough place to pitch in general, Weaver has had a questionable patch of starts of late going 1-4-1 in quality starts according to my numbers, and he is only a 10 game winner this year with the Angels which has raised some eyebrows this year, do the Angels really deserve to be this much of a favorite, frankly, I don't think so and the A's aren't too far off from being able to hit the +1.5 runs here, very tempting to take the the run and look for a 1 run loss or the A's to win it outright, I have that at a 58% chance of happening.

Minny vs. Seattle

Minny hits the road to Seattle and note the Twins are 74-56, but Seattle has not quit yet and they still continue to play well in spots such as their win 7-3 against the Tigers yesterday, Liriano hasn't given up a run in 12 inns and its very rare to see a road chalk by this much here as he is, and of course over 70% is still riding him similar to Santana when he was with the Twins, Lirianao gave up 2 hits to Seattle at home earlier this year in a 7 hit shutout, having said that, note that Liriano does have a 10+ era on the road where he does struggle at times, even in his win at KC he had a 4.77 era in the midst of his 3 shutout starts, Batista struggled at home against Minny in his last start as well, I don't make it a habit of going against the Twins, but I'm simply saying that with over 70% of the public riding Minny and Liriano having his trouble at times on the road, this seems to be a mine that I'm willing to avoid.

WNBA

Season will resume again on August 28th, with 5 games of research on the slate. Looking forward for Beaver Ball returning.

Monday's Comp Selection

For IC's Free Selection Monday (always one of the premium selections on the card)

, check out IC's Daily Blog: http://www.capperslounge.com/baseball-betting/13138-indiancowboy-ic-august-25th.html 

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Miami Heat @ Washington Wizards Tuesday November 18, 2008 7:00 pm
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Phoenix Suns @ Utah Jazz Monday November 17, 2008 9:00 pm
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College Basketball

James Madison Dukes @ Davidson Wildcats Monday November 17, 2008 6:00 pm
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San Antonio Spurs @ Sacramento Kings Sunday November 16, 2008 9:00 pm
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Long Beach St @ Wisconsin Badgers Sunday November 16, 2008 4:00 pm
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TCU Horned Frogs @ Clemson Tigers Saturday November 15, 2008 8:00 pm
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