IC's MLB Thursday Preview

by: IndianCowboy

PODs
35-20 Last 54 PODs (64%) and 20 of 31 baseball winners (64%) (8 Dogs)

Thursday's MLB Research

St. Louis vs. Atlanta

My Braves continue to spiral in losses as they look to turn it around at home today again. Hampton continues to make his comeback for the Braves and remember, the Braves have simply gotten their butts handed to them by the Cardinals at home in this series. It seems that 65% of the public are taking the road fave here in the Cardinals. [b] However, are they really siding with Joel Pineiro? I know the Braves are struggling, but Damn, Pineiro has given up the following hits of late:

6/27: 10 hits @ KC (8.22 era)
7/02: 11 hits (H) against Mets (7.2era)
7/08: 5 hits @ Philly (0 era)
7/13: 10 hits @ Pitt (9.54 era)
7/21: 10 hits (H) Milwaukee (4.5 era)
7/26: 10 hits @ Mets (11.25 era)

Pineiro has not faced the Braves this year. Hampton in his first start back in 4 innings gave up 8 hits and 6 runs to the Phillies at home for a 13.5 era. Horrible, yes. But, at least he is pitching again for the Braves and actually attempting to earn a paycheck. A bit surprised the total is just 10 here, if anything a lean on the Braves as well as an over. Given the Braves have stunk it up the last 2 ballgames, I think this game is likely to go the Braves and over here.

Seattle vs. Texas

I won with R.A. earlier this year but he has struggled in his last 2 starts with a 6 and a 13.51 era, this was after he had 4 straight quality starts, he is on the road here where he last struggled against Boston, but did have quality starts against the Mets and Oakland on the road, heck, they were shutouts, when he left, Harrison bounced-back well at home in hist start on the road at Oakland, Texas comes off a 4-3 win yesterday, Harrison is 2-2 in quality starts as you truly don't know what you get with the young gun, plus, R.A. is on the road as well, this could be another barn-burner with scoring in another texas high scoring home game. No wonder the total sits at 12, lean on the over, given only 7 runs were scored yesterday, but staying away from this one.

Whitesox s. Minny

Danks won his last start despite having a 6 era as he defeated Detroit and Verlander on the road, against Minny he has 27.04 era, 3.6era and 6 era in that order - all of those games were at home though, on the road he is even better than at home as he is 5-1 with a 2.31 era, Baker is technically on a bounce-back despite beating the Indians on the road - remember he had a 5+ era in that start, didn't matter though as his team won comfortably 11-4, he faced Danks earlier this year on 4/9, he had a 5.4 era but defeated the Whitesox and Danks 12-5. Frankly, staying away, I respect both of these teams ability to come back, especially against young pitchers, heck, Chicago won 8-3 on the road yesterday and Minny is strong at home.

Detroit vs. Cleveland

Verlander is on a great bounce-back here today, remember he had 6 straight quality starts and was 5-0 in his last 6 starts before getting roughed up at home against the White Sox, he is 1-2 against Cleveland thsi year but did defeat them last time out at home, of course Cleveland is furious from losing their lead yesterday as they gave up their lead countless times over and over again, heck, they were up 5-0 early on and 11-7 later in the game until the Tigers putting up a 4 spot in the 8th, Carmona has given up 15 runs in just over 4 innings of late as he has been horrible of late, he does have a 1.33 era at home against Detroit this season defeating Verlander in the end 11-1 - so Verland has revenge for that, but Cleveland has revenge from losing yesterday, remember, Carmona has been struggling of late while Verlander is on a bounce-back, lean on the Tigers based on that, as I just don't trust Carmona - but given his horrible starts of late, Carmona probably will show up - wouldn't be suprised tos ee a pitcher's duel here, however, this being an afternoon game, anything can happen in this game imo given the lineups, no thanks.

Angels vs. Yankees

The Angels come off dominating the Red Sox on the road and now face the Yanks on the road as well - wh had their own troubles with the Orioles. Garland comes off a horrible start in his last attempt as he had a 8.44 era on the road, the Angels still managed to win the game by putting up 11 runs on the board, I do expect Garland to pitch well today however, but he has struggled in his last 2 road starts overall, Pettitte has pitched 3 of 4 quality starts, but he too struggles when having to put together 3 straight quality starts, heck, Petitte is worst at home than on the road this year, at home this year he has a 4.01 era and for the season he has a 3.76 era. The public is split on this game, but it is tough to ignore the Angels at this value here and anytime the Angels are at +150 when on the road.

Arizona vs. Dodgers

As a baseball fan, I picked this game to research in the NL along with the Braves game because of the pitching matchup here. Webb is 8-3 on the road with 2.81 era and has a 14-4 record with a 3.27 era overall, he faced the Dodgers at home earlier this year and gave up just 1 earned run, but the Dbacks went on to lose that game 5-6, Lowe, has a 1.8era at home against Arizona and a 6.85 era on the road against Arizona, the Dbacks went on to win both of those games. Do note that Lowe typically struggles for back to back quality starts - however, the Dodgers are on a bounce-back here, but the Dbacks have ended up losing 2 ballgames in which Lowe has started this year and they are getting a beat on his pitches, also notice this trend:

1.69, 6.14, 1.29, 7.20, 1.17, 6.75 and 0.00...

See a trend? Lowe doe snot put together back to back quality eras, lean on the Dbacks for all of these reasons today.

WNBA

Season will resume again on August 26th, wnba clients note that your packages simply resume when the season begins back on that date and that your package runs through until the wnba season is over, whenever that maybe, looks like they are taking some time off due to the olympics.

Thursday's Comp Selection

Comp selections are always one of the premium selections on the card. Win or lose, it adds a little more to the thread each day and I simply believe if you put something out, it should be something that you are actually playing. Hope you find it helpful.

Braves +106

My Braves continue to spiral in losses as they look to turn it around at home today again. Hampton continues to make his comeback for the Braves and remember, the Braves have simply gotten their butts handed to them by the Cardinals at home in this series. It seems that 65% of the public are taking the road fave here in the Cardinals. [b] However, are they really siding with Joel Pineiro? I know the Braves are struggling, but Damn, Pineiro has given up the following hits of late:

6/27: 10 hits @ KC (8.22 era)
7/02: 11 hits (H) against Mets (7.2era)
7/08: 5 hits @ Philly (0 era)
7/13: 10 hits @ Pitt (9.54 era)
7/21: 10 hits (H) Milwaukee (4.5 era)
7/26: 10 hits @ Mets (11.25 era)

Pineiro has not faced the Braves this year. Hampton in his first start back in 4 innings gave up 8 hits and 6 runs to the Phillies at home for a 13.5 era. Horrible, yes. But, at least he is pitching again for the Braves and actually attempting to earn a paycheck. A bit surprised the total is just 10 here, if anything a lean on the Braves as well as an over. Given the Braves have stunk it up the last 2 ballgames, I think this game is likely to go the Braves and over here.

write-up:

The Cardinals are just 1-6 when Pineiro is favored by this margin and the home team is 18-7 when Nelson is behind the plate. I believe the Braves losing streak ends today.

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