IC's WNBA Preview

by: IndianCowboy

Friday Preview: 3-0 yestday in the WNBA and 56-34 (64%) last 91 days in POD doing 1 POD per day.  

Atlanta vs. Connecticut (WNBA Preview): 

This is the only game on tap tomorrow and whenever this is the case, it typically spells disaster for the 2 public plays. Consider this, in the fall, during college football, countless times in a Big East Football game or in particular a MAC football game where the whole public jumps on a Thursday night football game and then gets buried, or the whole public jmps on a particular total for a weekday football game such as the over and it goes over by about 10 points. Having said that, Connecticut beat the Dream by 32 points last time out: 100-68. They were favored by -11 which they covered easily and Atlanta comes off getting thumped by the Shock at home as the Shock decided to show up due to a close game with Atlanta as Atlanta was up at the half by double-digits the first time they played them so it looked like Lambeer turned out the troops for meeting #2. The question is, will Atlanta show up or get drilled by 20+. Heck, Connecticut beat up on Detroit by 17 points at home and has covered 5 of their last 6. Honestly, it is tough to take either side but it is even tougher to wager on Atlanta given that they blow. After all, here is an Atlanta team that was a dog by 11 points on the road and now are only dogged by 15 after getting drilled at home by a worse margin and drilled on the road in the same game as this by 32 points. I just have an odd feeling that Atlanta shows up this game as vegas's interest is not in having the public which is sitting at 66% jumping all over one team only to get burned. Nevertheless, by principle it is tough to take Conn as Atlanta does have revenge, of the possible trap here given the line is only at 4 points: In fact, if I am not mistaken, this is the largest spread ever for a wnba game. . I wouldn't be surprised to see the Dream show up here and Conn to have the total shot over as they will be expected to perform better than expectations, no real lean on the side, lean on the over a bit here.

POD #1 in the Nation:
17-9 Last 26 PODs (65%)
56-32 (64%), Doing 1 POD Per Day. (Last 91 Days)

Baseball (5-2, Last 7)
21-13 (62%), Last 38 Days.

2008 WNBA Season
19-12-2 (62%)

NBA 2007-2008 Sesaon Recap:

NBA Finals 2008 Record 4-2:
(23-10 Last 32 NBA POD, 68%, to Close out the Year).

NBA 2007-2008 Season: +55.7 Units. A Winning Season. Thanks clients for a great season. Looking forward to next year.
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Yesterday's Analysis: 2-0 (washington mystics pending)

Detroit Shock -6 (POD) (Winner)

This might end up being the POD but as per now, it is simply a selection until I get to do the MLB card on Thursday. The research for this game is pasted below but long story short here is that you get a proud Detroit team coming back home after getting drilled on the road by Connecticut and this is a home and home and you better believe that Bill Lambeer will get his girls fired up for this game and ironically Detroit sits as the public dog in this one slightly which makes this play even more attractive. I considered making this a 5* but will settle for a 3* as this is likely my POD for thursday as this is an early release: This is one of the advantages of doing the plays early and I would not be surprised if we went on a solid run these next few days in the wnba as I typically average 56% to 60% in the wnba as a run starts, then becomes stagnant and then I readjust my spreadsheets and the run once again starts. Remember, Detroit is 5-0 at home while Connecticut can lay a goose egg on the road. Detroit is 7-1 ATS when playing on a day's rest.

Monarchs/Lynx Over 154.5 (Winner)

154.5 is a fairly high total but given how this spread is placed, I like the over. Minny is a very fickle team, when they have revenge and when they are at home they play very well. Such is the case here against Sacramento, but don't forget, Sacramento could very well win this game outright as this is the same team that won 3 straight road games outright and nearly beat Indiana although they did cover that ballgame as well. Thus, taking Minny over Sacramento is not necessarily the safest choice, however, given that Minny has revenge and Sacramento is on the road being an active dog, the over here makes a decent amount of sense as this game could easily total over 160. The over is 4-1-1 in the Monarchs last 6 ballgames and hte over is 11-3 in the last 14 home games for the Lynx who shoot far better at home.

Washington Mystics +12 (Outright Winner)

It seems that Detroit will indeed be my POD for tomorrow, without even looking at the baseball card, but a solid dog for tomorrow is indeed Washington. Look, if you take away Washington's terrible start to the first half, this team was actually competitive after a big come back in the 3rd quarter. This team comes off a loss and has been showing signs of improvement and has revenge against the Sparks who have the largest spread of the year placed on them as double-digit favorites. Imagine giving a team half of a quarter - that is exactly what a 12 point spread means in the wnba. Heck, if someone were to give you 12 points on a total of 145 that is indeed significant, including the fact 3 of its last 4 winning at Houston and Chicago. To be frank, I believe the oddsmakers are screwing over the Sparks backers here and I'll take the dog as the Mystics are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games while the Sparks are 4-12 in their last 16 games when facing a team with a straight up losing record meaning they get placed a ridiculous spread on them in which they fail to cover.
 

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