IC's Thursday NFL/NBA/NCAAB Research and Comp Pick!

by: IndianCowboy

51-28 in Basketball 2007 (62%)
42-20 NBA 2007 (67%)                                                                                                                                                 #1 NBA Handicapper in America.  

Yesterday's Analysis:

Bulls/Pacers Over 198.5 (Win)

The Bulls are continuing to score points in a flurry as I have mentioned in the last week or so they did as this team impressively scored 98 points at Detroit in their outright win, Ben Gordon has been taking over this team as far as scoring is concerned wanting to get off to a fast start and his teammates are chipping in as well. Ben Wallace might not play in this game which allows for less defense as well on the part of the Bulls, but more importantly, the Pacers come off a frustrating loss to Cleveland where they were essentially run out of the building by the Cavs. The Pacers have played the over in the last few games and in particular the last 5 games at home and they have scored over a 100 points in their last 5 ballgames. Once again, the over is 5-0 in Indiana home games and the over is 6-2 when the Bulls are road underdogs of late.

Golden State/Portland Under 208.5 (Win)

This is a trend that I have noted for a while and I believe it has some worth today. The Warriors have played under on the road (as the oddsmakers are wary of this team's offensive prowess obviously) 4 of their last 5 games. The Blazers held the most potent offense in the NBA yesterday to less than 90 points. This says a lot. The Blazers held a healthy Utah team, who was at home, who was coming off 3 straight road losses as they returned home to less than 90 points. That says a lot about this team's ability to play defense which is a trademark of Nate McMillan. The total on this game has also steadily been coming down as well which gives more merit to this play as the under is not a public play. Keep in mind the under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings between these 2 teams.

Magic/Bucks Over 203 (Loss)

The Magic are coming off their worst shooting performance of 2007 as they shot around 38% and chucked up 30, 3-point shots only to make a 1/3rd of them. This team has lost back to back games for the first time this season showing this team's consistency and are 11-2 on the road straight up for a reason and will look to get back on track at Milwaukee. Milwaukee comes off a frustrating road trip where they lost the final 4 ballgames including a close losses to the Blazers and Kings and they are glad to be back home and will look to get revenge on a Magic team that blew them out in the first game of the season. The over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Milwaukee between these 2 teams and the over is 7-1 when the Bucks play a team with a winning record of 60% or more meaning that they show up against the better teams - in particularly at home.

IC is the Only Handicapper in the Nation to do Detailed Research on Most of the ATS Ballgames on the card each and every day. His research can be found daily at capperslounge.com as he also answers any particular questions on ballgames' sides/totals there as well.

Thoughts To Underdog Players

This is exactly why I stay away from too much of college basketball in the early goings. The past few days have been some of the most brutal covers for favorites I have ever come across. I stayed away from the Depaul vs. Vanderbilt game as I had Vandy winning by 6, but Depaul was an incredibly sharp play and they hung in there and frankly should have won outright. Yet, they lost the cover as the small home dog. The same was the case for Wright State, which once again over 70% of the public on Bradley, and they too fall late in overtime. Underdogs have always been the way to go, but this seems to be carrying over a bit from the NFL as this has been the biggest year for favorites I have ever seen in the NFL. In fact, the Books have been hit hard consistently as favorites are covering at an incredible clip this year as compared to years' past. It should be interesting to see how many dogs win in the NFL this weekend. I have several friends who are bookies and the Titans vs. Chargers game was an 11,000 swing for him as the Chargers ended up winning on the road. His quote to me, "The tide has got to turn and the books have got to do something about all of these favorites covering". Having said that, it should be interesting to see what happens this weekend and I think next year will definitely be a year of the dog. This is what makes the NBA so wonderful, dogs cover. [b] I just thought I would encourage anyone who was on Depaul last night that I stayed away from it, but you had the game capped right and stick with it as college underdogs that can win outright and frankly any underdog that you think can win outright is the way to go.[/b] This has undoubtedly been the year of the Favorite both in the NFL and in recent days, the dogs have been taking a hurting in college basketball. This is exactly why I suggest treading water in college ball, the nba and even in football until you get a feel for teams and their tendencies. On to Thursday's Ballgames:

NFL Thursday

Denver vs. Houston

This game opened up as Denver being a +1.5 dog only to have it moved to Denver being a -1.5 favorite because Schaub is unlikely to play. By the way, if I'm not mistaken, [b]not one dog has covered on a game in the NFL Network this year - i.e. the Packers losing to the Cowboys would be one of these games as well as the Colts covering against the Falcons on the road as well a game that I went to in the Georgia Dome [/b]. Both teams are 6-7 and Denver has played in 6 straight overs as their offense is clicking while their defense has been vulnerable - unless they are facing the Chiefs of course which they did twice during that 6 game stretch. Sage Rosenfels is not a bad a quarterback folks, he was 27/36 and threw for 209 yards with 3 touchdowns and no interceptions. I'll take that any given day and in fact, he has a 91.3 passer rating even greater than Matt Schaub or Jay Cutler that comes into tonight's game. The Texans picked up an impressive win against the Bucs who lead the NFC South and held them to 14 points - Luke McCown did start - but still held their rushing attack to to under 70 yards for Earnest Grahman which is something to be proud of. The Tampa Bay defense held New Orleans to 10 points as well at home. As per the power rankings, I have Houston as a top 20 team, but a top 15 team in the NFL at home and Denver as a top 20 team, but outside the top 20 on the road. I think this game goes to Houston in a bit of an upset and goes over as well as Denver's defense is very questionable on the road.

NBA Thursday

Washington vs. Miami

This total is plummeting since its opening as it opened up at 204 and now it is down to 202 in many books. In fact, in some places, the line opened up at 205 and has come down to 201.5. Thus, this brings up the point if this is sharp money or public money and it seems the breakdown is 50/50 on the over/under in a couple sites with roughly 700 votes in (11:45am eastern). [b] Here is yet another trend that is interesting - The Heat have played 5 straight overs on the road.[/b] Does this carry over to their home ballgames? We will see - yet, the Heat scored 5 straight games over a 100 on their road trip and their last 2 of 3 at home have gone over as well. Washington has scored over a 100 in their last 5 ballgames - all have been at home - as it should be interesting to see if their offense is effective on the road. Washington has played back to back unders, but they have played 2 non-offensive teams in New Jersey and Minnesota as both of those games went under but Wash still popped over 100 at home.

Here is a quote from Dwayne Wade that it should reflect on this team's character and play in the next few days from the AP (Associated Press):

"Going out West really helped us off the court as well as on the court," Heat guard Dwyane Wade said. "It helped us get to know each other a little more, helped us as men respect each other a little more, respect what each other does, and it's still coming. It's not there yet, but it's still coming, and I think these next six games coming up ... are going to show how close we have become."

Note that Jason Williams will be back for this game likely as well. Although the line is going down, tough to ignore the Heat wanting to get back on track offensively at home and Washington continuing to score the ball well without Arenas. No lean as I wouldn't be surprised if Washington won this game outright.

San Antonio vs. L.A. Lakers

The obvious question that begs is who will start and who will likely sit this game out. Something of interest is that Phil Jackson did sign a contract extension recently with the Lakers as he is hanging around this team even more and I can not overstress the importance of Fisher and Radmonavich to this team as Fisher came back from Utah as the medical care for his sick daughter is better in L.A. as compared to Utah. He provides a great deal of leadership and veteran point guard play while he brings along Crittenton and Farmar. The Lakers have opened up as 5 point favorites as it seems both Parker and Duncan are doubtful for this contest. Matt Bonner and Manu Ginobli will have to take the offensive scoring load if both are unable to play today. The Lakers are a very streaky team as they have won and covered 3 straight, had lost 2 in a row before that, won 2 in a row before that and had lost 3 in a row prior to that. The total was 199 as San Antonio beat this team by 15 the last time they played them this year in San Antonio as they covered the 8 point spread. I just don't see where the offense comes from tonight and San Antonio will have to rely on their defense as they did hold GS to under 100 points at home which is a tough feat. A lean on the under here. Oddly enough the line came down from -6.5 to -5 upon release offshore in favor of the Spurs.

NCAAB Thursday

Miami of Florida vs. Mississippi State

Miss State beat this team 70-52 last year on the road and they will look to beat them again at home while Miami of Florida is looking for revenge after their fast 8-0 start. Miami of Florida is 5-0 ATS this year and their most impressive wins come against Providence on the road and VCU on neutral court. Miss. State's 3 losses all come against decent squads in Clemson, Miami of Ohio and Southern Illinois, all solid teams as the Bulldogs have played a much tougher schedule than the Hurricanes thus far. Something interesting to note though is I have Miami of Florida as a top 40 team while Mississippi State as a top 55 team and the Bulldogs have yet to beat anyone in the top 100 this year. I would not be surprised at all if Miami of Florida wins outright today getting a bit of revenge. But, after Depaul's and Wichita State's collapse as dogs, I would understand anyone's fear of playing college underdogs right now unless they were getting significantly more points.

Thursday Comp Pick: 5-2 Run

Miami of Florida +5.5

This is likely to give someone a heartburn on this play, but there are many things to like about the Hurricanes. This team does sport top 100 wins against St. Johns, Providence and VCU and the win against Providence was truly impressive. Miami of Florida you might not know is a top 30 defense in the nation while Mississippi State is outside the top 80 on defense and Miami of Florida shoots over 47% from 3-point land and 70% from the free throw line while the Bulldogs are outside the top 200 in the nation in 3 point field goal percentage and about 4-5 points lower in free throw shooting. According to my rankings Miami of Florida has won tougher games on the road and away from home this year as compared to this, I never trust the 5.5 favorite line as I think that is a tough spread for a favorite to cover and the Hurricanes have revenge from last year's ugly loss to the Bulldogs at home as this is a home and home from the previous year. The Hurricanes are 6-0 in their last 6 non-conference games and the Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS as small favorites of 0-6.5 favorites at home.
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