IC's Saturday Basketball Preview

by: IndianCowboy

Winning 18 of 25 days and 22 of 29 POD Winners (76%) doing 1 POD per day.

(Gonzaga vs. Memphis)

How good is Memphis? Well, we're about to find out. If you remember, Memphis went on the road last year to beat Gonzaga in overtime in a revenge game and these two have begun a rivalry that is great for both schools as it brings a great deal of revenue for both due to increased competition. In this way, Calipari also puts his boys against some better competition as compared to the rest of the Conference USA squad. As a matter of personal opinion, do I think Memphis is the best team in the nation - no, I actually think Kansas is but we have to wait and see for that matchup. You might wonder why a spread of -12.5 but when you look at the numbers it makes sense. I have Arizona as a similarly ranked team to Memphis according to my math models at and around the top 25 and consequently, their 13 point win at home over Arizona sets up this spread for Zaga. I believe Zaga has been getting ready to play on the road for this game given their last 2 road games which they have won in blowout fashion beating Pepp and Loyola Marymount by 20+. What do I think will happen? What many people do not know is that Gonzaga has yet to lose a "true" road game this year as their 3 losses all come on neutral footing. With the overtime revenge from last year, and the fact this team beat a top 50 St. Josephs team on the road outright, I lean on Zaga to push Memphis here, but likely will stay away from this game.

Tulane vs. East Carolina

I wanted to point this game out as oddly as the numbers and the records for these 2 teams are, it is worth noting that I think East Carolina might shock a lot of people todya. Do I have the galls to take a 5-9 team at home? Sure, I've placed wager on even worse teams like a team that I am going to put money on today which is dismal, but that doesn't mean they can't cover big spreads in right situations. Sure, East Carolina is terrible, but this team comes off nearly a 20 point loss on the road at UAB where they nearly beat top 100 Central Florida - a team that I am very high on as my clients can tell you as I had them as my underdog game of the month at Southern Miss a while back. Heck, East Carolina beat a top 80 NC State team at home so why not Tulane in a conference game after a terrible loss. Tulane has lost to Buffalo on the road who is a top 225 team so I wouldn't be surprised if roughly 60% of the public gets surprised today.

Rice vs. Southern Mississippi

People think money cannot be made in the Conference USA or smaller conferences, so I made it a point to talk about smaller conferences today as when you have spreadsheets and math models - it does not matter which conference the games are in. In other words, math or value is "blind" of what conferences you can find good wagers. I say it over and over again - "A line is a line" - it doesn't matter if it is Conference USA Basketball, WNBA, a total in Major League Baseball or the Super Bowl - they are all lines - Hence, a line is a line. This is the basic premise and understanding of betting. To understand that money can be made on any line that is given irrelevant of the game is crucial to betting. To think that such overs and unders in basketball games, disregarding Beaver ball or the smaller conferences is premature. Hence, this is why many people ignore them because they do not have a feel for these conferences and consequently, they get less attention both from the bettor and the linesman - which makes for "looser" line overall. As per this game, Southern Miss frankly shouldn't be laying this many points to anyone. Sure Rice has won just 3 games but they played Oklahoma and Tulane very tough who are better ranked teams than Southern Miss and although the Golden Eagles come off an ugly loss at Memphis, they have lost to the likes of Mcneese State at home who is a top 225 team and I can see the top 300 team in Rice - who doesn't have the wins to show it, but they have bite as a big underdog.

Eastern Michigan vs. Miami of Ohio

I can't remember the last time that Eastern Michigan beat Miami of Ohio straight up, but both of these teams enter this game with the same record at 7-10. It's essentially a battle of MAC West vs. MAC East. Miami of Ohio is a top 100 team despite being less than .500 because of the difficulty of schedule they have played including Ohio, Akron, Kent, USC, Dayton but Eastern Michigan has shown that they can hang tough against the likes of top 100 Temple on the road. I lean on Eastern Michigan here and would make them a play except for the fact that Miami of Ohio comes off a loss on the road as they return home and Eastern Michigan comes off a big home win so it doesn't put them in a more focused mood than it would if they come off a loss.

UCLA vs. Oregon State (PAC)

I have UCLA winning this game by possibly 20 points which is why I denoted it here, but I hate taking double-digit road favorites unless they have revenge from last year's loss or a loss earlier that year. Did you know that UCLA is a top 5 team on the road, and better on the road than they are at home according to the power rankings? This team beat top 100 Cal on the road by double-digits, beat top 50 Oregon by 5 on the road, beat top 40 Stanford on the road by 9 and beat top 200 Michigan on the road by 15. They face an Oregon State team that lost to Cal at home by 10 and 20/24 points to top 40 rated Stanford and USC. However, I am laying off this game for the sole reason it is not good practice taking double-digit road favorites and I can see Oregon State coming in for the backdoor cover as any home team to sneak in for the backdoor with such a huge spread.

Stanford vs. California (PAC)

This is a game of intrigue for me as I can see the Golden Bears winning this game despite being ranked in the top 100 and Stanford being a top 40 team. My spreadsheets show a 60 spot differential typically between home and road performances (splits) and this game is a prime example of that. Sure, Stanford is 15-3 - a great record, but what are those 3 losses? - a home loss to UCLA which is understandable but the other 2 are road losses one to top 125 Siena and the other to top 50 Oregon. Now, they go on the road to play top 100 Cal who has defeated the likes of top 30 USC and Missouri who is a top 60 school at home. They can just as beat Stanford in my mind as they come off tough back to back losses to top 65 Arizona State and top 18 Arizona in a 5 point loss. Thus, this game is a true tossup but I lean slightly on the Golden Bears here but likely staying away.

Yesterday: 2-1: 7 Comp winners in a row- Golden Week - accomplished yesterday - :)

#1 Basketball Handicapper in the Nation - Across the Board - 169 Plays Documented.

Saturday, June 26th

Gonzaga vs. Memphis (Conference USA)
Tulane vs. East Carolina (Conference USA)
Rice vs. Southern Mississippi (Conference USA)
Eastern Michigan vs. Miami of Ohio (MAC)
UCLA vs. Oregon State (PAC)
Stanford vs. California (PAC)

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Yesterday's Analysis (2-1)

Toronto Raptors -9.5 (Winner)

There is good reason for this line to be this high as although the Raps come off a great win on the road against Boston and this could be a let down against Boston, I think otherwise as this team had the wood laid on them at Milwaukee back on November 6th. What people don't understand is that the NBA is like a network of puzzles, each selection and each pick stems off something that happened in the past. In essence, it is like a soap opera that feeds off each other and allows for motivation and easier wagers to hit down the road. For example what happens today, affects and sets up a wager for a month from now. This was similar to me taking the Hornets who had lost back to back games in the Rose Garden and were looking to avoid losing 3 in a row to the Blazers at home and they pulled out the double-digit win in the end. Similar to that, the Raptors got beat 112-85 and certainly that did not sit well with this team who is a very proud team and coached very well by Sam Mitchell - a coach whom I have personally during my mascot days here in Georgia. The bottom line is this, this is a good spot for the Raptors given the revenge angle and this team has the potential to blow out teams at home given by their 116-91 beating of Sacramento at home. Sure, the Bucks can squeak in for the cover here, but I'll take the Raps at the "Air" Arena tonight as the last time they got beat by the Bucks, they went on the road to beat them by 15 and now are at home with a single-digit spread - the Bucks are 0-5 ATS following a straight up win by 10 or more points showing their inconsistency and the Raptors are 10-1 ATS as home favorites of 5-10.5 points.

Twolves +13 (Winner)

Sure, the Celtics can blow this team out, but I will "Gonad" up and take the Twolves today. There is a lot going on in this game including the fact that the Celtics do come off a loss and fired up. However, keep in mind what the Twolves have going for them here. They went on the road to Golden State and won outright - a team that they had played very close previously in several contests. They came back home and did not have a let down against the Suns who they beat as well - a game that I was on the over because I wanted to avoid the let down because I did predict they would be an active underdog which they were. Now, they go on the road to Boston, a team that is not in a good mood. However, what comprises the Twolf team? They are comprised of ex-Boston Celtics players. Remember, the likes of Gomes, Jefferson and others were once Celtics players that were traded for the Big Ticket. Now, these players come back home to prove the talent that they got rid of. Heck, Al Jefferson put up 39 points in his last contest against the Suns. I will take a shot here with the young Timberwolves here who have a lot of guys with a lot to prove and that incentive and motivation is enough for me to take a shot on them today. Professional sports are all about motivation, on any given night, anything can happen. The Twolves are 5-0 ATS against the Eastern Conference and 8-3 ATS when facing a team with a 60% home winning percentage meaning they get up for the better teams and the Celtics are 0-4 ATS as 11 points or greater home faves.

Knicks/Sixers Over 194.5 (Loss)

You might not want to keep up with this game simply because it is likely to give you heart burn with these 2 teams. However, there are a lot of positive trends that support the over here and I like the spot that both teams are in. First off, the Sixers come off a very disappointing loss at home to the Pistons at home by 8, a game they frankly should have covered but failed to do so. They put up less than 80 points in that game. The last few games my spreadsheet shows that the put up less than 85 points, they come back the following game with a differential of +10 putting up somewhere around 95 points. And, this does make sense considering against the Knicks both times they have put up 105 and 101 points this year. In fact, the last time these 2 teams played, the Knicks dropped just 77 points on the road at Philly and lost by 26 points and you can bet that this Knicks team will be fired up today. However, I don't trust the Knicks although I do expect them to win and cover here. The Knicks put up 93 against Boston at home who is a strong defensive team and dropped 111 at New Jersey and 105 against Washington at home. I have this game at 204 to 205 today and that 10 point differential is worth it for me to take the over here. I have this game at 104-100 Knicks. The over is 4-0 for the Knicks following a double-digit home loss and the over is 5-2 for the Sixers as a road dog of late.

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Winning days summary

Winning 5 of 6 days (83%)
Winning 18 of 25 Days in January (72%)
Winning 19 of 26 Days (73%)
9-4 This Week (69%)
---Monday: 2-1
---Tuesday: 2-1
---Wednesday: 3-0
---Thursday: 0-1
---Friday: 2-1

*Haven't lost back to back Days since January 4/5.

Pod Summary

7 of 8 POD Winners.
22 of 29 POD Winners. (76%) - Almost 1 Month of POD's at 76%
January POD Run: 18-7 (72%) - Doing 1 POD per Day.
112-68 POD Run (62% since June 23rd - 1 POD per Day)
Best POD Run in the Nation.

Overall records summary

Basketball 2007: 101-68 (60%)
56-30 (65%) NBA Run &
NBA 2007: 68-42 (62%)
19-12 College Basketball Run (61%)(Last 20 Days)

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IC Wednesday NBA Research
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IC RESEARCH REPORT:Big Wins Yesterday with Auburn +8.5 over Georgia (POD) and TCU +17 Outright over Clemson in College Ball! Let's repeat the Winning ... read more

IC's Thursday Research
IC RESEARCH REPORT: 1-0 in College Football yesterday with a Winner with Kent State and ready to roll again today. Below is your free research for Thursday.  ... read more

IC Wednesday Research
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Friday IC Research Report
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