IC'S FRIDAY BOWL & COLLEGE PREVIEW

by: IndianCowboy

Michigan State vs. Boston College (@ Orlando)

Boston College is a top 15 power ranked team they come off losing 3 of their last 5 ballgames including the home loss to Virginia Tech by a final score of 16-30 for the ACC Championship. Now, this team that was once 7-0 sits at 9-3 and faces a Michigan State team that is top 50 in the power ranking in the nation. Some might have expected the line to be higher, yet 70%+ of the public is riding Boston College to beat Michigan State. The line actually opened up at -3 for Boston College and now sits at -5 as people are preferring the once 2nd ranked squad over the Big 10 school. One thing you have to admire about Michigan State is their ability to put up points. Their lowest output of the season was 17 points on the road against Ohio State and at home against Pitt and besides that they have been able to put up points with relative ease. Theier defense has also give up at least 24 points in their last 7 contests. Somethin to note is that whenever Boston College faces teams that around the top 40 range, the game typically goes over. Michigan State to their credit put up considerable points on a Penn State team that prouds itself on defense and dropped 30 on them. Spartans are 35th in the nation in total offense as they are 60th in the pass and 25th with the run. Their defense is roughly top 40 in the nation and they are top 60 in points allowed. Boston College is the #1 team in the land as it relates to rush defense, but 105th in passing yards allowed. BC is 6th in the nation in passing and 106th in rush defense. I expect both teams to air the ball out today.

TCU vs. Houston (@ Houston)

I have TCU as a top 60 team facing a Houston team that is top 80 in the nation. The public currently likes TCU as a 58% favorite which explains why the line has shot up a big as TCU is also more of a public team than Houston. TCU has lost 5 games this year and they were top 40 Texas and Air Force on the road. The did lose to top 80 Wyoming at home and lost to top 40 BYU and away and home. They face a Houston team that is top 80 once again and I have them winning this game right around the spread. Against similarly ranked teams this team was averaging around 45 to 50 points per ballgame and are 3-2 ATS - similarly ranked top 60 to 90 ranked teams that is. TCU did open as a 4 point favorite and the line has continued to rise. All of Houston's wins come against teams that are outside the top 75. In fact, their wins come against teams that are outside the top 80 as the best team they have beat this season is top 85 Colorado State. Whenever this team has played a team within the top 60 such as TCU, they have not fared well. Their losses this year come against top 70 Tulsa 7-56 and they lost to Oregon 27-48. To this team's credit, they did lose to Alabama 24-30 on the road and East Carolina defeated them 35-37 at home as well who are top 50 and tpo 80 ballclubs. These teams actually met in 2004 with TCU winning 34-27 and covering thsi similar spread right around -6.5 as the game went under the total at that time which was set at 65. Houston has played the under in 5 straight games and has scored at least 34 points in 7 straight ballgames. TCU has the 65th best offense in the nation while having a top 20 defense and Houston comes out of the Conference USA - the same conference that featured Central Florida and Memphis who faced each other in the first bowl game of the year - high powered offenses. Houston has the 4th ranked offense in the nation and the 49th best defense. TCU is top 20 in the nation in rushing yards allowed and total points allowed. [b]Keep in mind that Houston's head coach left the team for Baylor and took some of the coordinators along with him so they will not be here for this game. Why is this a big deal? Well, considering the head coach also called the offensive plays, this is a big deal as he did call the offense for the 4th ranked offense in the nation[/b].

Maryland vs. Oregon State (@ San Francisco)

This game comes down to really do you trust ACC football? Here you have Maryland, a team that is very good at times this year who have had some faulty games, catching 5 points against Oregon State. The Terps were just 90th in the nation on offense as they were 70th in rushing and 80th in passing yards. The Terp defense ranked 40th to 45th in most categories but did rank top 30 in points allowed. I have the Terps losing this game by a field goal as they are a top 40 power ranked team. Maryland does have wins against Rutgers on the road, Georgia Tech, Boston College and NC State. To Oregon State's credit, they are ranked in the top 20 in the power ranking but one of those wins comes against Oregon who was shorthanded without their starting quarterback yet they nearly lost that game as they won 38-31. Oregon State ranks as the 11th best defense in the country as they are 2nd in the nation in rush yards but 72nd in the nation in passing yards allowed. Both teams have won their respective bowl games the last 3 years under their current coaches as the AP reports.

College Basketball Notes

Connecticut vs. Central Florida

Uconn plays its first true road game today, won't be surprised if Central Florida wins that game outright, watch out for that upset.

Southern Illinois vs. Butler

The Salukis are just 5-5 I beleive but they did knock of St. Mary's who is a similarly ranked top 25 power ranking team at home and Butler is 10-1 but they haven't beat a top 100 ranked team on the road all year so this will be a tough game for them, hence, the line.

Deleware vs. Maryland - Maryland comes off that losss to American which worries me and Deleware is a fickle team, but I have them falling inside the spread, but then again, Maryland comes off that loss, so it's a wait and see game for me to see how Gary's Terps respond to the loss at home to a top 180 ranked team.

[b]Michigan State vs. Boston College (@ Orlando)[/b]

Boston College is a top 15 power ranked team they come off losing 3 of their last 5 ballgames including the home loss to Virginia Tech by a final score of 16-30 for the ACC Championship.  Now, this team that was once 7-0 sits at 9-3 and faces a Michigan State team that is top 50 in the power ranking in the nation. Some might have expected the line to be higher, yet 70%+ of the public is riding Boston College to beat Michigan State.  The line actually opened up at -3 for Boston College and now sits at -5 as people are preferring the once 2nd ranked squad over the Big 10 school. One thing you have to admire about Michigan State is their ability to put up points. Their lowest output of the season was 17 points on the road against Ohio State and at home against Pitt and besides that they have been able to put up points with relative ease. Theier defense has also give up at least 24 points in their last 7 contests.  Somethin to note is that whenever Boston College faces teams that around the top 40 range, the game typically goes over. Michigan State to their credit put up considerable points on a Penn State team that prouds itself on defense and dropped 30 on them. Spartans are 35th in the nation in total offense as they are 60th in the pass and 25th with the run. Their defense is roughly top 40 in the nation and they are top 60 in points allowed. Boston College is the #1 team in the land as it relates to rush defense, but 105th in passing yards allowed. BC is 6th in the nation in passing and 106th in rush defense.  I expect both teams to air the ball out today.  

[b]TCU vs. Houston (@ Houston)[/b]

I have TCU as a top 60 team facing a Houston team that is top 80 in the nation. The public currently likes TCU as a 58% favorite which explains why the line has shot up a big as TCU is also more of a public team than Houston. TCU has lost 5 games this year and they were top 40 Texas and Air Force on the road. The did lose to top 80 Wyoming at home and lost to top 40 BYU and away and home.  They face a Houston team that is top 80 once again and I have them winning this game right around the spread.  Against similarly ranked teams this team was averaging around 45 to 50 points per ballgame and are 3-2 ATS - similarly ranked top 60 to 90 ranked teams that is.  TCU did open as a 4 point favorite and the line has continued to rise.  All of Houston's wins come against teams that are outside the top 75.  In fact, their wins come against teams that are outside the top 80 as the best team they have beat this season is top 85 Colorado State.  Whenever this team has played a team within the top 60 such as TCU, they have not fared well.  Their losses this year come against top 70 Tulsa 7-56 and they lost to Oregon 27-48.  To this team's credit, they did lose to Alabama 24-30 on the road and East Carolina defeated them 35-37 at home as well who are top 50 and tpo 80 ballclubs. These teams actually met in 2004 with TCU winning 34-27 and covering thsi similar spread right around -6.5 as the game went under the total at that time which was set at 65.  Houston has played the under in 5 straight games and has scored at least 34 points in 7 straight ballgames.  TCU has the 65th best offense in the nation while having a top 20 defense and Houston comes out of the Conference USA - the same conference that featured Central Florida and Memphis who faced each other in the first bowl game of the year - high powered offenses.  Houston has the 4th ranked offense in the nation and the 49th best defense.  TCU is top 20 in the nation in rushing yards allowed and total points allowed. [b]Keep in mind that Houston's head coach left the team for Baylor and took some of the coordinators along with him so they will not be here for this game.  Why is this a big deal?  Well, considering the head coach also called the offensive plays, this is a big deal as he did call the offense for the 4th ranked offense in the nation[/b].

[b]Maryland vs. Oregon State (@ San Francisco)[/b]

This game comes down to really do you trust ACC football?  Here you have Maryland, a team that is very good at times this year who have had some faulty games, catching 5 points against Oregon State. The Terps were just 90th in the nation on offense as they were 70th in rushing and 80th in passing yards.  The Terp defense ranked 40th to 45th in most categories but did rank top 30 in points allowed.  I have the Terps losing this game by a field goal as they are a top 40 power ranked team.  Maryland does have wins against Rutgers on the road, Georgia Tech, Boston College and NC State. To Oregon State's credit, they are ranked in the top 20 in the power ranking but one of those wins comes against Oregon who was shorthanded without their starting quarterback yet they nearly lost that game as they won 38-31. Oregon State ranks as the 11th best defense in the country as they are 2nd in the nation in rush yards but 72nd in the nation in passing yards allowed. Both teams have won their respective bowl games the last 3 years under their current coaches as the AP reports.

College Basketball Notes

Connecticut vs. Central Florida

Uconn plays its first true road game today, won't be surprised if Central Florida wins that game outright, watch out for that upset.

Southern Illinois vs. Butler The Salukis are just 5-5 I beleive but they did knock of St. Mary's who is a similarly ranked top 25 power ranking team at home and Butler is 10-1 but they haven't beat a top 100 ranked team on the road all year so this will be a tough game for them, hence, the line.

Deleware vs. Maryland - Maryland comes off that losss to American which worries me and Deleware is a fickle team, but I have them falling inside the spread, but then again, Maryland comes off that loss, so it's a wait and see game for me to see how Gary's Terps respond to the loss at home to a top 180 ranked team.

Ole Miss vs. Southern Miss - Ole Miss is now a top 25 team in the nation in the polls and Southern Miss comes off a loss to McNeese State.  Southern Miss on the bounce-back here but Ole Miss is undefeated and wouldn't be surprised if they won this game by double-digits. [b] Great teaser opportunity as well wit Southern Miss and another team that you have confidence in. [/b]

Marist vs. St. Johns - Lot of love for St. Johns here by the public, but I wouldn't be surprised if Marist wins this game outright as St. John's lost to a top 125 Nigara team at home outright, and Marist is a top 115 power ranking team as they are slightly higher.

Morgan State vs. Niagara I do have Nigara winning this game, but it is tough to take a game that which 80% of the public is riding Nigara fairly hard.  To Morgan State's credit they have only lost to Miami of Florida, a top 120 team on the road in UMBC, lost to Uconn by just a few points and lost to Maryland on the road.  This game is going to be tight all the way.

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