IC's NBA Playoff and WNBA Preview

by: IndianCowboy

Tuesday, May 13th

Beaver Ball Starts May 17th! This is my Favorite Sport, Can't wait.

POD Recap Last 3 Weeks (1 pod per day): 13-5 NBA Playoff POD Run
May POD: 8-3 (1 pod per day)

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NBA Playoff Tuesday Research

Detroit vs. Orlando

I've already put out my plays for the basketball card as it is just baseball that I need to do for today. As per this game, how frustrated must you be if you are a Magic fan? The Pistons did beat this team fair and square in game 1. Then, this team I feel gets robbed in game 2 by a horrible decision by the referees, they win game 3, then give up a 15 point lead with no Billups in game 4. Thus, what you have here, is a team that could be up 3-1 themselves going on the road with home court advantage, instead, they are down 1-3 going on the road facing elimination with no home court advantage. Just brutal. It just goes to show how big each of these games are. Heck, each playoff selection is a relative big deal as well as frankly, I talked about the Cavs winning yesterday and still took the over as I failed to cash in on my over rather than simply taking the Cavs at home given that the Celtics are now 0-5 on the road in the playoffs. On a side note, the Celtics look like the biggest chump team on the road in the playoffs, I do like Doc Rivers calling out Rondo for his "hero shot" that he was taking fading away from the basket - good call Doc, especially considering when you have 3 hall of famers that can shoot that shot besides Rondo. As per this game, I'd have to think that Stan Van Gundy lights a fire in his players' ***, in particular Dwight Howard who was essentially non-existent in Game 4 despite his team's 15 point lead. I look for Orlando to be an active dog as this is one of those games that is either an Orlando outright win or a Detroit cover as I don't believe the 6 points will make the difference. After all, in the previous 4 games the favorite has won or the dog has won outright, with the Pistons winning the game on the road in game 4 and the home teams holding serve in the first 3 ballgames. I look for this game to likely go over on the road today in Detroit.

San Antonio vs. New Orleans

I simply cannot wait for this game. Both these teams have held serve similar to the Lakers vs. Jazz series which should shift considering Kobe's back stiffness. As per this game, if you believe the Hornets are able to score with ease at home, then you should lean on them, however, if you believe in the Spurs momentum, you should lean on them. I personally think this series is likely to go to game 7. After all, what you have is home teams holding serve and I would have to imagine that Byron Scott calls out Peja, Tyson and David West for their lack of play on the road as the only person that showed up in the 2 games in San Antonio is Chris Paul. I expect the Hornets to be fired up at home, not necessarily to take a lead early, but to eventually have a big 3rd quarter as they did in game 1 and game 2, After all, every game in this series has been decided by 9 points or double-digits, in the regular season as well if I am not mistaken. Here is the breakdown of every game the Hornets and Spurs have played this year + playoffs:

05/11/08 SA 100 - NO 80 (20 Point Spurs Win)
05/08/08 SA 110 - NO 99 (11 Point Spurs Win)
05/05/08 NO 102 - SA 84 (18 Point New Orleans Win)
05/03/08 NO 101 - SA 82 (19 Point New Orleans Win)
03/12/08 NO 100 - SA 75 (25 Point New Orleans Win)
02/23/08 SA 98 - NO 89 (9 Point Spurs Win)
01/26/08 SA 78 - NO 102 (24 Point New Orleans Win)
11/09/07 NO 85 - SA 97 (12 Point San Antonio Win)

Do I like the fact that 65% is on the Hornets, no. However, there have been countless times when heavy public favorites have indeed won, including the Lakers in game 1, the Cavs against the Wizards in the first 2 contests and so on, plus, the Hornets consistently play hard and this team has a great deal of incentive to show up at home today. I lean on the Hornets with no real opinion on the total as it is likely to give a heart burn for any to bet the total between these 2 teams.

WNBA Early Previews and Research for Season Start Date May 17th

Many people do not realize how wonderful the WNBA is. This is my favorite sport to handicap hands down. Even more than the NBA which I love and even more than the NFL and College Basketball/Football, I truly love the WNBA. It is Beaver Ball and Baseball Totals which occupy all of my time in the summer. This is my 4th year handicapping the sport and like any sport, if you focus, get to know the players, notice trends, injuries and matchup reports and use basica principles of betting such as my active dog/over principle, revenge principles, two teams that set up in half court offenses, and home/road splits, you learn such a great deal about each team. My favorite team in the WNBA year after year are the Monarchs. Why? Because I still feel that Monarchs head coach Jenny Boucek is one of the hottest coaches in the league if not the hottest. But, on a side note, she demands defense on the road and the Monarchs are typically good for plenty of unders on the road while playing very well at home and hitting the spead at home. In many ways, they are similar to the Kings in which they represent the same city. The standings in the WNBA are as follows and this is how the teams break down as a quick intro:

There are 14 Teams.

There are 2 Conferences, the Eastern and Western Just like the NBA.

There are no Divisions.

Simply 14 teams in 2 Conferences. In essence, the Conference itself acts like a Division.

Eastern Conference

*Washington (great for underdog upsets at home)
*Chicago (came on very strong with a young team last year who was playing well near the end of the season)
*Connecticut (very good defensive team and perennial powerhouse)
*Detroit (perennial powerhouse with veteran savvy play, have added plenty of young blood similar to the *Pistonst his year with the likes of Stuckey),
*Atlanta (new crop of players needing to mesh)
*New York (unpredictable as usual simiar to the Knicks)
*Indiana Fever (defensive power house at home).

Western Conference

*L.A. Sparks (The recipient of Candace Parker and will now once again have an inside presence as Sparks exits her perennial role as she took some considerable time off last year in part b/c of her pregnancy, and also note that Holdsclaw essentially quit on her team last year as well so finally some young blood that is interested in playing basketball again for the Sparks to compete in the West).
*Lynx (Young team that is meshing very well and has some solid inside presence). They are very good for overs and as active dogs on the road as shown by some great finishes last year.
*Houston Comets (Very unpredictable squad, I rarely bet on or against Houston, veteran savvy).
*Sacramento Monarchs (see above analysis, but they are dynamite at home, and great at unders with their stifling defense, home games are great for Sacraemento and the under typically).
*Seattle (run and gun type of team, fun to watch, the Phoenix Suns of the NBA).
*Phoenix (Speaking of Phoenix, Taurasi still leads this team, this team needs some more of an outside shooter presence which they addressed in the off-season, should finish at best on average around 3rd in the West, solid as they come at home).
*San Antonio (Silver Stars made some big moves last season which panned out to an improved year, this team has had a year or so to mesh, so look for more veteran play and similar to a poor man's Detroit Shock team in the East).

NBA Playoffs POD Summary:

13-5 NBA Playoff POD Winners (72%), Doing 1 POD per Day and 24 of 35 Winners (69%).

April POD: 21-9 (70%) (Doing 1 POD per day). The hard work in April Paid off.

*April Results: +20.08 Net Units, 8.33% Return of Investment.

*Winning 33-13 POD Run (72%) (Doing 1 POD per day).
NBA 2007-2008 (Including Playoffs): +50 Units.

Other Streaks
Play Of The Day
33-12 (73%): Last 41 days: +53.7 Units: 36.17% ROI.
College Basketball
4-1 (80%): March Madness Tourney: +8.0 Units: 53.47% ROI.
College Football
7-3 (70%): Final Week of Bowl Season: +10.1 Units: 33.67% ROI.
NFL Side Plays
3-1 (75%): Final Stretch of the NFL Playoffs: +5.2 Units: 43.58% ROI.
NBA Moneyline Plays
6-4 (60%): Last 52 days: +23.2 Units (Included Kings and Grizzlies +1150 ML): 193.08% ROI.
NBA 5 Unit Side Plays
3-1 (75%): Last 98 days: +8.7 Units: 43.45% ROI.

IndianCowboy Past Articles

Saturday MLB Research
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Wednesday's MLB Research
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IC's Thursday MLB Research
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Monday's MLB Research
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Sunday MLB Research
13-6 Last 19 MLB Selections (68%) & Back to Back MLB Winning Weeks. Minnesota vs. Cleveland(Perkins vs. Laffey)Minnesota comes off a win yesterday ... read more

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