Humanitarian Bowl Preview

by: John Ryan Sports

College Betting Preview

By John Ryan

The uDrove Humanitarian Bowl

Northern Illinois at Fresno State 

Saturday, December 18, 5:30 PM ET

Bronco Stadium, Boise Idaho

Northern Illinois favored by 1 -110 with a 59 point total

Line provided by Bookmaker

This will be a very competitive and entertaining matchup between a Northern Illinois (10-3, 8-0 MAC) and Fresno State (8-4, 5-3 WAC). Northern Illinois is making their third straight bowl appearance and have a chance to set a school record with 11 wins on the season. Fresno State is making their fourth straight bowl appearance, but has played in the shadows of the Boise State Broncos national limelight. 

The biggest matchup to watch is whether the Fresno State defensive front can anchor themselves against the seventh-ranked running game in the country. Northern Illinois is gaining 264.7 yards per game on the ground and Fresno State defensive coordinator Randy Stewart will have to be creative in his looks before the snap of the ball. He can bring up a safety or even both and then drop both into coverage or read and react to the zone-read running scheme of the Huskies. Combinations of the two will certainly be used as well, but the Huskies will run their offense and force the Bulldogs to react and adjust to them.

The team stats and rankings are misleading

The Bulldogs run a balanced offensive scheme ranking 67th in passing gaining 214.3 yards per game and 55th in rushing gaining 157.0 yards per game. Moreover, they rank 45th in offensive scoring at 30.0 points per game and 79th in scoring defense allowing 29.2 points per game.

The Huskies rank 89th nationally in passing yards gaining 181.2 yards per game and as mentioned seventh in rushing gaining 264.8 yards on the ground per game. They rank 13th in offensive scoring at 37.8 points per game and a strong ranking of 16th in scoring defense allowing just 19.1 points per game.

Strength of Schedule

Considering these national rankings it is a wonder why the line is just Huskies favored by one point and not the Huskies favored by eight points. The dominant reason is the superior strength of schedule that Fresno State endured this season. 

The Bulldogs played two ranked teams in then No. 21 Nevada on November 13 losing 35-34 covering the spread as eight point dogs and then-No. 4 Boise State on November 19 losing 51-0 losing against the spread as 29 point dogs. The Huskies did not play one ranked team all season and as a result there is a significant disparity in strength of opponents. So, if you factor out the Boise and Nevada losses Fresno State is equal to Northern Illinois. So, It is fair to say that Fresno State would have sported at least a 10-3 or 11-2 record if they played the same schedule as Northern Illinois. 

Sports betting Consensus

The line has been well established with nearly equal bets on both teams. The line opened at Northern Illinois favored by three points, but quickly moved to Norther Illinois favored by one point. Despite this movement the net money flows are nearly identical and I do not see the line moving to pick-em. 

Key Matchup

No doubt Northern Illinois knows how to run the ball and their offensive line is excellent at holding the first block and then getting to the second level of the defense in a well timed executions. In this game keep an eye on Fresno State middle linebacker Ben Jacobs and outside linebacker Kyle Knox. They certainly had their troubles against Nevada and Boise State and were overwhelmed by their lack of size. However, Northern Illinois has not played against linebackers with the quickness and agility that these two bring to the game. Even if they are met by the Huskie offensive linemen they have the athleticism to shed that block and make the stop. The Huskies are accustomed to pushing the defensive front and linebackers around and wearing down a defense over the course of the game. Given what I call the ‘seasoning’ from playing the best opponents, this defensive unit is vastly under rated and I strongly believe they will contain the Northern Illinois rushing attack. 

The Technicals favor a low scoring affair

Supporting the case for an ‘under’ play is a system that has produced a 42-14 record for 75% winners since 1992. Play ‘under’ with any team against the total in a bowl game or in a non-conference game between two teams from second tier division 1-A conferences. 

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