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How to Win in March Madness

by: Nite Owl Sports

Every March all of the Casinos and Hotels on The Vegas Strip and in "Glitter Gulch" in downtown Las Vegas go all out for March Madness, both in terms of decorations and special promotions. Everyone is excited of course, the local merchants, the hotel managers, and the fans (both local fans and those visiting town for a weekend of watching and wagering, with a little black jack, other casino games and miscellaneous “other entertainment” thrown in). But let’s not forget the sports book managers, who are the most excited of all, drooling with anticipation at the idea of the annual “fleecing” that will take place for over 70% of the bettors who make hoops wagers at their sports books, mostly on NCAA tournament games. It’s basketball’s version of New Year’s Day for college football and the Super Bowl for the NFL, all rolled into a few crazy weeks. But while the sports books have their line managers poring over stats and point spread records, etc. from past games involving the tournament teams, in order to come up with the “sharpest” lines possible, droves of unsuspecting bettors are converging on Vegas, “re-upping” their offshore betting accounts, or calling Lou the neighborhood bookie to increase their “credit line” with him. While most of these self-proclaimed “experts” probably couldn’t name more than ten college basketball players or more than five college basketball head coaches outside of their immediate geographical area, and many have not made more than a few hoops bets all season, suddenly they think they can make money and have lots of fun doing it (not to mention impressing the ladies) by picking winners in March Madness. While some may get lucky for a day or two, most don’t, and instead have their lunch handed to them and have blown through most if not all of their March Madness bankroll by Sunday afternoon, at the end of the second round. Even those who start out hot usually cool off and are in the red by the time the tourney reaches the Elite Eight. The two main reasons for this are that (i) as stated above, thousands of sports fans come out of the wood work during march madness and think they are hoops handicapping experts and (ii) March Madness is one of the most difficult times of all during the college hoops season to pick winners. Reason #1 is basically a “given” which will continue to exist as long as there is March Madness and bookies or sports books who will take bettors’ “action” on the games. But let’s look at reason #2, and explore not only why it is such a challenge to pick winners during March Madness, but also what are some of the things that can be done to turn the tables in favor of the bettors and away from the sports books.

In our opinion, one of the main factors making it difficult to pick winners during March Madness is that the games are all on neutral courts. With so many fans willing to spend the time and money necessary to “follow their team” to whatever venue they have been sent to, few teams enjoy much of a home court advantage, either when playing in their own region of the country or even in their home state, and ATS results for past 5-6 years bear this out. That makes handicapping these games much more difficult than during the regular season, where the games featured a true home team vs a true road team, and we thus could use each team’s past performances at home and on the road, especially vs teams of a talent level similar to its opponent in the game being handicapped, as a measuring stick for anticipated performance (in the game being handicapped and bet on). While it is generally accepted that a team’s road record, especially vs good teams, has the most relevance in handicapping NCAA tournament games, playing true road games is simply not the same as playing games on neutral courts. But except for one or two presumably “neutral court” games played by each team in their respective conference tournaments, the only other neutral games by most teams were played in November or December, and how relevant are they? For that reason, we have been very selective thus far in the NCAA tournament with our major (4 and 5 unit) picks, having gone 5-3 on them for +7 units. But tonite we have isolated a game in the last round of the NIT which will feature true home/road games (after which they move to neutral MSG in NY for NIT’s version of the “final four”), and we are so high on our selection that we have made it our March Madness Game of the Year. See the Big Pick Alert below for details on purchasing this pick, or for an even better deal, one of our March Madness packages, which we are now offering at a special Sweet 16 discount rate of $79 for all of our remaining college hoops picks, through the NCAA Championship game, or our 30 day NBA/college hoops combo for $178.

The main objective in trying to win these difficult to handicap NCAA tournament games is to get line value, which in many cases will make the difference between an overall profit or loss by the end of the three wild weeks of March Madness, with a point spread win, push or loss often being determined by a single point. So does that mean that the bettors who win some of their games by a point or even half a point are better at handicapping the games than the ones who instead lost some by the same small margin? No, but if the one and half point winners won because they “shopped” for the best lines and didn’t bet on “public” teams (at inflated prices) that “everybody” is betting on, then it does mean that they are better sports handicappers than their losing counterparts. While most readers know basically what “line value” is, many don’t have a clue how to recognize both good and bad line value, or how to get good line value. Following are some important steps to take in getting and recognizing good line value:

1. Be sure to have at least two betting “outlets” who will take your action, preferably three. This will allow you to shop for the best lines on the games you want to play, and those excruciating half point losses when you just had one outlet will become pushes or even wins, which can make a big difference in just a few weeks, especially if you are playing lots of games. Although it’s not very practical to spend all the time and money to go to Las Vegas for a weekend or two of march madness for the sole purpose of getting line value on the games you plan to play, while opening and funding an offshore account has become more of a pain in the ass than ever with the new federal laws aimed at curbing “internet gambling” (lots of luck on that), it really is worth your while to somehow, somewhere, set up at least a second “outlet” with dependable people who you can count on to pay you when/if you win. If you are stuck with just one “book” and you are forced to bet (or not bet) with the lines they give you, it becomes an even greater challenge to win consistently and make any kind of a profit.

2. Be very careful betting on “public” teams, especially high seeds (like North Carolina and Kansas) who have impresively covered in both of their NCAA tournament games so far. The inexperienced betting public tends to “fall in love” with teams that they recently made money on, and those teams will be getting a ton of betting support. The line makers know this, so they “jack the line up” a point or two on these teams to start with, but the opening lines on these teams usually get “bet up” a point or two anyway, by game time. One system that produces good line value  in the later rounds of the tournament by capitalizing on this “public team” sentiment is to (i) bet one unit on any team which won its last two games in the tournament without covering ATS (against the spread) in either one, (ii) bet one unit against any team (such as North Carolina, LVille and Kansas this year) which covered ATS in winning both of its last two games in the tournament, and (iii) bet two units on any team which won its last two games in the tournament without covering ATS in either one, if they are playing a team which covered ATS in winning both of its last two games. This system usually results in picks on good teams (they have to be pretty good to still be alive in the tournament) and has given us a number of late round ATS winners over the years. I’m not saying to avoid betting on hot teams such as North Carolina, LVille and Kansas, and I’m not saying to bet against them (and we won’t be, notwithstanding the above mentioned system), but if you do bet on them, bet them early. For example, North Carolina is now –8 over Wash State, and Kansas is –11.5 over Villanova. Those are most likely the best lines we’ll see on those two faves, so if you like them enough to bet them and lay the points, do it today, don’t wait until game day tomorrow.

3. Don’t be afraid to “nibble” at a game, by making two or three different types of bets on the same team. In order to be able to do this, you will need to make sure that at least one of your outlets has alternate types of bets that you can do, such as money line bets, second half bets, and teasers. The reason we like to have an outlet which has money lines on at least some of the games (e.g., where the money line on the favorite would be under –200) is that when we like a small favorite, or a small underdog which we think has a good chance to win outright, and the money line price is decent, we will often split our picks between ATS and money line, thus making two picks, one for two or three units ATS, and one on the same team for two units on the money line. With so many March Madness games being so competitive, there are always a few each year (such as Stanford-Marquette in the second round) where a small fave wins SU but fails to cover, and if betting the fave in such games, much of your ATS loss is cancelled out by your win on the money line. Or let’s look at a reverse example, where a small underdog had an inviting money line price, like New Mexico at +3.5 ATS and +160 on the money line vs Cal in the first round of NIT. While New Mexico was thought by many (including us) to have a good enough “shot” at winning that game SU to justify a one or two unit money line bet on them, a slightly larger (3 unit) ATS bet on the Lobos at +3.5 points was also called for (in case the Lobos fell just short of winning), meaning that 5 units were being bet on New Mexico (two on money line and three ATS) to win up to six units, if both bets won. The result was not totally what we wanted, as New Mexico lost by 2, losing the money line bet for us but winning 2.7 units on the ATS bet, for a net win of nearly one unit on the game, even though we lost one of the two bets on it. Another back-up we did, on both Stanford and New Mexico, was that we teased each of them to (Stanford to +2 and New Mex up to +8.5) with one or two of our other picks that night.

4. Lay off of teams or totals which you believe are over-priced by the pre-game line (which is what most people bet on), or bet a small amount on them, either ATS or as part of a teaser, and wait to see if your team is behind at the half, which will give you much better line value on the team, or the first half total score is unusually high or low, which will give you better value betting a total, using second half line and half time score. Here are a few examples.

Game #1 – Drake vs Western Kentucky, on the first day of the tournament, that memorable game with the unforgettable ending. Although we liked Drake to win that game SU, and the Bulldogs had given us lots of winners TY with their consistent play and ability to win virtually all of their close games, we thought they were overpriced at –4 ATS and –175 on the money line against a good Western Kentucky team, so we passed on them. While we saw very little of the first half, a quick review of the first half box score (on ESPN.com) revealed that (i) Western had “shot the lights out” in the first half, canning nearly 60% of their shots (which they were unlikely to repeat in the second half), and (ii) Drake had apparently not suffered any key injuries, as all of their starters had played significant minutes. We then checked the second half line, and saw that it was Drake –5, which (when combined with the HT score of Drake being down by 9) resulted in an adjusted game line of +4 for Drake, enough to our liking for us to “pull the trigger” on Drake. The end result was that while Drake lost both ATS and SU on the money line, in heart-breaking fashion, they covered the second half line for us by two points.

Game #2 – Stanford vs Marquette – this was the most memorable game of the second round, with Stanford’s coach getting ejected four minutes into the game and its numerous momentum swings, coupled with the late game heroics by Stanford’s Brook Lopez and Marquette’s Jerel McNeal. While we expected Stanford to win, we were not willing to bet on it, either ATS at –3 or on the money line at –150, but when the Cardinal went into the locker room with a six point half-time deficit, caused partly by Marquette’s four technical FTs resulting from the early ejection of Stanford’s coach but more so by Brook Lopez’ sub par (two point) first half, the second half line of Stanford –4 and the HT score made Stanford a two point dog with the adjusted game line, just enough for us to bite. While we were fortunate to get the win, we put ourselves in a good position to win, by taking Stanford with this more favorable (than the pre-game line) second half line. 

Game # 3 – UMass vs Syracuse- while this NIT game last night was not on the “big stage” like the first two NCAA battles, it featured a very dramatic comeback by one team and collapse by the other. In handicapping the game, we liked the Over for a number of reasons, not the least of which was that these same two teams had combined for 207 points in regulation earlier TY at the same site (the Carrier Dome in Syracuse). However, the line had quickly jumped to 165.5 or 166, after opening at 163 and staying there only briefly. When we ran our “numbers,” we projected 161 total points scored, so we tabled the over, but kept an eye open to see if we could get a more reasonable total using the second half line, in the event of a low scoring first half, which is just what we got, with only 67 first half  points scored, and only a ridiculous 24 by UMass. While we did not expect such a complete turnaround by both teams, and did not even watch the second half, we were quite sure that with UMass being a pressing, up tempo team and actually a decent shooting team for the year, there would be a lot of second half points scored, especially a lot more than 24 by UMass, so we took over 84 for the second half, which resulted in an adjusted totals line of 151 points, ten below our projected game total of 161 points. The result was a 91 point second half, which fell short of the pre-game totals line by 8 points but beat the second half totals line by 7.

The “other side of the coin” of this betting strategy is that you must realize that the results of the first half may not give you the adjusted line you want, and in such event you need to “walk away” and simply forget about either betting the team or total you originally liked, but at an even worse line, or “beating yourself up” for not betting the game because you thought your side or total was over-priced with the pre-game line.

We hope you enjoyed and will profit from this article, and that you will give Nite Owl Sports a chance to show what we can do for you, by purchasing one of our March Madness packages, or at least our March Madness Game of the Year.

This article copyrighted for exclusive use of Nite Owl Sports and Top Ten Cappers.

Nite Owl Sports Past Articles

Getting Value Out of Heavy Faves in MLB
By this point of the season, anyone who bets MLB on a daily basis has probably already seen > 100 games where they look at the match-up of teams and ... read more

Going Under the Radar in AFL and WNBA
Now that the NBA playoffs have ended, many amateur sports handicappers simply "pack it in" until football season, not wanting to get involved ... read more

Betting Ugly on Under in NBA Playoffs
While it varies from year to year how well (or poorly) the overs or the unders do in the NBA playoffs, the one thing that is more consistent is that most ... read more

Betting the Rest of Boston – LA Series
In Sunday’s newsletter we wrote an article about the advantages of using “in progress” adjusted series lines as a way to bet a heavy ... read more

Getting Value with in Progress NBA Series Lines
We have bet NBA series sparingly, and until this final round we did not make a single series pick TY for our Top Ten clients, primarily because the odds ... read more

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MLB Baseball

Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners Thursday August 7, 2008 10:10 pm
This pick on Seattle is based primarily on the match-up of starting pitchers, with Seattle SP Hernandez clearly having the edge over tampa SP Sonnenstine.Hernandez is 3-1 LT vs Tampa, with the loss being in tampa and all 3 home starts vs Rays being strong ones, resulting in a 3-0 ... read more

Nite Owl Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Nite Owl Sports

MLB Baseball

Atlanta Braves @ Arizona Diamondbacks Thursday August 7, 2008 9:40 pm
We'll jump at any chance we get to go against Atlanta and their woeful 18-36 road record, which includes an incredible 0-19 road log in one run games and an equally bad 1-24 log in away games decided by one or two runs. And Braves  are worse in night games (just 4 RPG) than ... read more

Nite Owl Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Nite Owl Sports

MLB Baseball

Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox Thursday August 7, 2008 8:11 pm
We like Sox here again ( won on them last night, as well as on Tues, when they were our top Play of the Day) over the slumping Detroit Tigers, coming off two straigght frustrating extra inning losses at Tampa then Chicago, Tues night, to these White Sox, and then looking ... read more

Nite Owl Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Nite Owl Sports

NFL Football

New Orleans Saints @ Arizona Cardinals Thursday August 7, 2008 8:00 pm
Our pick here is on the New Orleans Saints, a team that we are looking at to bounce-back TY. After reaching the NFC Championship game two years ago, the Saints were a huge flop in 2008, starting 0-4 SU/ATS and failing to reach the playoffs. As a result, we expect Coach ... read more

Nite Owl Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Nite Owl Sports

NFL Football

New Orleans Saints @ Arizona Cardinals Thursday August 7, 2008 8:00 pm
Our pick here is on the New Orleans Saints, a team that we are looking at to bounce-back TY. After reaching the NFC Championship game two years ago, the Saints were a huge flop in 2008, starting 0-4 SU/ATS and failing to reach the playoffs. As a result, we expect Coach ... read more

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MLB Baseball

Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox Wednesday August 6, 2008 8:11 pm
We like Sox here ( but not as much as last night, when they were  as our top Play of the Day) over the slumping Detroit Tigers, coming off yet another frustrating extra inning loss last night, this time to these White Sox, who may "win ugly" sometimes at home, like ... read more

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MLB Baseball

New York Yankees @ Texas Rangers Wednesday August 6, 2008 8:05 pm
Don't let the high totals line scare you here, as the over is still a good play, with they way these two have been scoring in this series (14 RPG in both games 1 and 2), and the way each team's pen has been coughing up runs ( 7 ER in 7 IP ny NY pen, and 5 ER in 6 IP by Texas pen). ... read more

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MLB Baseball

Florida Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies Wednesday August 6, 2008 7:05 pm
We see the Over 10.5 runs as the best angle in this game, with Florida being the premier road over team TY at 33-17 Road Over for an average of 10.3 RPG, and also averaging 5.5 RPG scored away vs RHPs. And Florida SP Anibal Sanchez (1-0, 3.18 ERA) with only one start TY,  ... read more

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MLB Baseball

Washington Nationals @ Colorado Rockies Tuesday August 5, 2008 9:05 pm
The Rockies lost yesterday but it was not unexpected by us, as Rockies are a crappy 12-25, -15 units in the first game of a series. But for game 2, they are 18-18, which is not great, but a whole lot better than the Nationals, who are about even units in the first game ... read more

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MLB Baseball

Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox Tuesday August 5, 2008 8:11 pm
We like Sox here as our top Play of the Day over the slumping Detroit Tigers, coming off a frustrating extra inning loss to end a four game sweep suffered in Tampa. Tigers just don’t get it done on the road unless they are facing a LHP (not the case tonite), as they are a crappy ... read more

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