How to Beat Late Season College Football

by: Evan Altemus

            Lines are becoming sharper as the college football season progresses, so bettors must adapt and use a few different strategies.  The books have fully adjusted from early season lines and have a much more accurate assessment of each team.  However, there are some ways that I have beat the books the last few years, and the last few weeks in college football.  Let's take a look at how to do it.

EMOTION - People continue to fail to realize that these are 18-22 year old kids playing college football.  They are much more prone to emotional roller coasters than the average NFL player.  Look to fade teams coming off of big wins.  The worse the team is, the more of a letdown they are prone to have.  A perfect example of this is Iowa State getting blown out by Texas A&M a week after winning outright at Nebraska.

FEAR - As the season progresses, some of these games have a huge impact on these programs.  Anything from getting bowl eligible to a national title are on the line in the next few weeks for some of these teams.  Numerous times we have seen title contending teams choke down the stretch and lose games to very weak opponents.  Who can forget LSU losing to Arkansas and West Virginia losing to Pittsburgh a few years ago?  Some of these teams that aren't used to playing in these pressure packed games may have trouble dealing with the adversity.

FAILURE TO ADJUST - Some teams that have struggled all season can slowly turn things around without the betting public realizing it.  An example of this theory is Illinois.  They have played much better the last three weeks, resulting in two straight dominant wins as an underdog.  Meanwhile, the same can be said for teams that continue to win, yet fail to cover the point spread.  Their strong record is appealing to bettors, which means oddsmakers have to keep them as inflated favorites.  Examples of this theory are Alabama and Florida.  The Crimson Tide are just 1-2 ATS in their last 3 games and were somewhat lucky to cover against LSU.  The Gators are 1-3 ATS in their last 4 games as well.

            Overall it is essential to adjust your strategy when handicapping late season college football.  The overall situation and true value of each team must be looked at carefully.

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