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How to Beat Late Season College Football
by: Evan Altemus
Lines are becoming sharper as the college football season progresses, so bettors must adapt and use a few different strategies. The books have fully adjusted from early season lines and have a much more accurate assessment of each team. However, there are some ways that I have beat the books the last few years, and the last few weeks in college football. Let's take a look at how to do it.
EMOTION - People continue to fail to realize that these are 18-22 year old kids playing college football. They are much more prone to emotional roller coasters than the average NFL player. Look to fade teams coming off of big wins. The worse the team is, the more of a letdown they are prone to have. A perfect example of this is Iowa State getting blown out by Texas A&M a week after winning outright at Nebraska.
FEAR - As the season progresses, some of these games have a huge impact on these programs. Anything from getting bowl eligible to a national title are on the line in the next few weeks for some of these teams. Numerous times we have seen title contending teams choke down the stretch and lose games to very weak opponents. Who can forget LSU losing to Arkansas and West Virginia losing to Pittsburgh a few years ago? Some of these teams that aren't used to playing in these pressure packed games may have trouble dealing with the adversity.
FAILURE TO ADJUST - Some teams that have struggled all season can slowly turn things around without the betting public realizing it. An example of this theory is Illinois. They have played much better the last three weeks, resulting in two straight dominant wins as an underdog. Meanwhile, the same can be said for teams that continue to win, yet fail to cover the point spread. Their strong record is appealing to bettors, which means oddsmakers have to keep them as inflated favorites. Examples of this theory are Alabama and Florida. The Crimson Tide are just 1-2 ATS in their last 3 games and were somewhat lucky to cover against LSU. The Gators are 1-3 ATS in their last 4 games as well.
Overall it is essential to adjust your strategy when handicapping late season college football. The overall situation and true value of each team must be looked at carefully.
Evan Altemus Past Articles
Winning Baseball Handicapping Strategies Part II
For the last few years baseball has been a sport that has been the most difficult for me to handicap. I have been able to make a profit almost every ... read more
The Two Biggest Keys to Sports Handicapping
First and foremost before I continue with this article, note that the title says the two most important sports handicapping keys, not sports betting keys. ... read more
Winning Baseball Handicapping Strategies Part I
For the last few years baseball has been a sport that has been the most difficult for me to handicap. I have been able to make a profit almost every ... read more
Thursday's MLB Thoughts and Leans
Here are my MLB thoughts and leans for Thursday April 22nd.In the Detroit/Anaheim game, I really have no lean on the side. I think the game will be close ... read more
Friday's MLB Thoughts and Leans
I really wanted to find an excuse to take Texas +192 at the NY Yankees today, but I just couldn't bet against Sabathia. C.C. pitched great in his last ... read more
All Evan Altemus Past Articles
Evan Altemus Past Picks
MLB Baseball
Oakland Athletics @ Texas Rangers Wednesday July 28, 2010 8:05 pm
Texas just flat out has the better line-up and bullpen right now than Oakland. The A’s have not been a good road team this season, while the Rangers are 35-20 at home this season. Texas also has won four of their last five games and is coming off of an exciting ... read more
MLB Baseball
St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Mets Wednesday July 28, 2010 7:10 pm
There is some good value on the Mets right now after their horrendous road trip. New York has been one of the best home teams in the league this season, but they have been pretty bad on the road. The Mets gave Cardinals starter Adam Wainwright his worst outing of the ... read more
MLB Baseball
Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals Tuesday July 27, 2010 8:10 pm
Minnesota is really hitting well right now, with a team average of .337 in their last 10 games. Their offense was on full display last night, as they scored 19 runs against the lowly Royals. What makes this selection even better is that they get to tee off against lefty ... read more
MLB Baseball
St. Louis Cardinals @ New York Mets Tuesday July 27, 2010 7:10 pm
Adam Wainwright has been absolutely dominant over the last few weeks, allowing just 1 run over his last 5 starts. He also goes fairly deep into games, and he should have no problem shutting down a Mets offense that has been horrible lately. Meanwhile, lefty Jonathan Niese ... read more
MLB Baseball
Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals Monday July 26, 2010 8:10 pm
Both teams are hitting well right now, and they match up well against their opposing pitchers tonight. Minnesota has hit Zack Greinke well this season, and they are averaging .331 against right handers over their last 10 games. What makes this selection even more appealing ... read more
MLB Baseball
St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs Sunday July 25, 2010 8:05 pm
St. Louis is looking to avoid getting swept tonight against Chicago. The Cubs have used some good hitting to win the first two games of this series, as well as winning six of their last nine games. However, Chris Carpenter takes the mound for St. Louis, and he should ... read more
MLB Baseball
Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers Saturday July 24, 2010 8:05 pm
After looking at this game from just a starting pitcher perspective, it might appear that the Angels are the right play. However, that’s not the case. Los Angeles starter Ervin Santana has pitched well lately, but he does not pitch well at Texas. Meanwhile, ... read more
MLB Baseball
Washington Nationals @ Milwaukee Brewers Saturday July 24, 2010 7:10 pm
Both of these teams have combined for higher scoring games and tonight should be no exception. Milwaukee starter Manny Parra has struggled lately, and he is facing a Nationals team that hits lefties very well. He is just 1-1 with a 7.40 ERA against the Nationals and gave ... read more
MLB Baseball
Toronto Blue Jays @ Detroit Tigers Saturday July 24, 2010 7:05 pm
This is a great price to get Detroit at considering how well they play at home. The Tigers are one of the strongest home teams in baseball and won another game in their ballpark last night. Rick Porcello pitched very well in his first start since returning to the rotation ... read more
MLB Baseball
Oakland Athletics @ Kansas City Royals Sunday July 18, 2010 2:10 pm
Kansas City’s best hitters are struggling right now, and they aren’t a power hitting team to begin with. In addition they have to face Oakland’s Vin Mazzaro who is 2-1 with a 2.30 ERA in his last 4 starts. Meanwhile, his opposing starting pitcher, Brian ... read more
