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Home Field vs. Road Travel in the NFL
by: Bryan Leonard Sports
It’s probably not discussed as much as home court in basketball and even college football, but teams in the NFL often have significant edges at home and liabilities on the road. A key part of sports is emotion. Even though NFL players are professional athletes getting paid to do a job to the best of their abilities, playing well before the home fans really is more important than playing as well on the road.
The hometown fans are the ones who, in essence, are paying their salaries. No player wants to give 50% and lose a game badly in front of the home crowd. In addition, other factors can influence a team’s performance at home or on the road. The Chiefs had great home fans and for years, until recently, and oddsmakers factored in a bit greater edge to the Chiefs at home with respect to the line.
That home field edge in Kansas came back in 2010 as the young team played surprisingly well at home, upsetting the Chargers and 49ers already at home on the way to the playoffs. I recall talking to a Midwest football fan one time who had been to both the Rams and Chiefs stadiums many teams. He pointed out that the St. Louis fans were far milder compared to the Kansas City football fans, and it showed in the stadium.
The Broncos can enjoy a unique edge at home, not only from great fans but the thin air in the Colorado mountains. Denver players are used to practicing and playing in the thin, cooler air, while some opponents aren’t. That can carry over into basketball, as well.
Another factor is playing surface. Dick Vermeil built the Rams in the late 1990s with an eye for speed at WR and RB. His spread attack, along with then-offensive coordinator Mike Martz, was predicated on speed which performed better on the artificial playing surface in the St. Louis dome. Notice that in 2004, when things were going well, the Rams were 6-2 SU at home, but 3-7 SU/ATS on the road. The Greatest Show on Turf was far less so on grass. That is unlikely with the current Rams, however, as new coach Steve Spagnuola is a propend of a balanced offense. When they got ahead of the Chargers in 2010, the Rams didn’t go for the jugular, but played conservative football.
I recall the start of the 2006 NFL season, in the NFC East, no team had a winning record on the road, yet the Redskins, Giants and Eagles were a combined 9-0 at home. In the AFC East that year, the Patriots had a 2-2 road record, while the other teams were a combined 0-9 on the road. Long travel can play a roll, as well. That same season the Buffalo Bills had a long road trip to Oakland, and had their worst game in a 38-17 loss. In fact, Buffalo was 3-1 SU/ATS at home at the time, 0-3 SU/ATS on the road.
Lovie Smith’s Bears really seem to get fired up in front of the Chicago fans, but less so on the road. Notice the geographical location of a team like the Seahawks, playing way up in the Northwest corner of the U.S. in Seattle. A team in a city like that has a longer way to travel to away games. One recent season they made long trips to the East coast in Jacksonville and Washington, as well as St. Louis. The Seahawks started 1-2 Su/ATS on the road, and 4-0 at home!
This season, the Jets had a brutal 3-game road trip at Oakland, Baltimore and New England. Guess what? They lost ‘em all, sending off alarm bells in the Big Apple. The Jets ended that skid with a win, and cover, against the Dolphins. Yes, that game was at home. The Jets have been hit hard by injuries this season, too, another factor that can help wear a team down, lacking depth, which can hurt on long road trips.
Bryan Leonard Sports Past Articles
The Zig Zag Theory
Let’s talk about zigzags. No, that’s not some ski slope maneuver. Nor is it someone who says one thing and then does another. Sports bettors ... read more
NBA Playoffs Betting
The NBA playoffs are off and running. There are a lot of ways to analyze who has the edge, from matchups, key statistics (rebounding, turnovers), spread ... read more
NBA Personnel Changes and Lineups
Like a stock broker, a good handicapper has to keep up with the changes that take place on and off the court. This is particularly true this time of year. ... read more
NBA Embarrassment
Many teams get embarrassed during an NBA season, even the playoffs, which are approaching. After all, it's a long season and even good teams get smacked ... read more
The NBA Stretch Run: Does Anybody Care?
Does anyone really care in the NBA? I'm not talking about fans, I'm referring to the players. Certainly a lot of players have pride and want to give their ... read more
All Bryan Leonard Sports Past Articles
Bryan Leonard Sports Past Picks
Los Angeles Clippers @ San Antonio Spurs Tuesday May 15, 2012 9:35 pm
LA Clippers at San AntonioTerrible spot for the Clippers who had to go the distance with Memphis and win a short handed game on the road just to advance. The Spurs are the vastly more experienced team and they own a major rest advantage. The line is high for a reason and unlike last ... read more
Cleveland Indians @ Minnesota Twins Monday May 14, 2012 8:10 pm
Cleveland at MinnesotaThe Twins have finally gotten to the point where they are producing value. To make Pavano a sizable home dog against the slumping offense of the Indians is simply a mistake. Pavano, a former Indian, has a career ERA of 2.83 against the Tribe. Gomez has a bright ... read more
Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox Sunday May 13, 2012 2:10 pm
Kansas City at ChicagoHere we get the better starter and a plus money price. Danny Duffy is starting to come into his own as the best starter on this Kansas City staff. He fared very well in his only career start against the White Sox and we expect another strong performance here. Phillip ... read more
Cleveland Indians @ Boston Red Sox Sunday May 13, 2012 1:35 pm
Cleveland at BostonJustin Masterson came up in the Boston organization and he was traded a few years ago to Cleveland in the Victor Martinez deal. We know Masterson has never forgotten that. He gets especially up for facing his old team with a 1.95 career ERA against them.Daniel ... read more
Denver Nuggets @ Los Angeles Lakers Saturday May 12, 2012 10:30 pm
Denver at Los AngelesThe Nuggets have made a nice comeback to even this series but their season is likely to end tonight. Home teams in game sevens are always a positive play and the line in this game hasn't been inflated. The return of Meta World Peace and the undressing of ... read more
Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers Friday May 11, 2012 10:10 pm
Colorado at Los AngelesLow total in a Jamie Moyer game is always a solid reason to play the Over. Moyer has a lifetime 5.50 ERA in his 72 inning career against the Dodgers. And keep in mind much of that was in his prime. Moyer is a crafty pitcher but his best days are behind him.Capuano ... read more
New York Mets @ Miami Marlins Friday May 11, 2012 7:10 pm
New York at MiamiLarge pitching edge in this one for the underdog as Santana has a career ERA of 1.46 in 68 lifetime innings against the Marlins. Well aware that the Mets will be seeing Buehrle for the first time but at this price the Mets are well worth a wager. Miami is playing ... read more
Houston Astros @ Pittsburgh Pirates Friday May 11, 2012 7:05 pm
Houston at PittsburghAs good as McDonald has been this season we can't see the Pirates being a favorite of this size over anybody. Pittsburgh doesn't score enough offensively to be a sizable favorite and we're not sure that Houston doesn't have the pitching advantage. Norris has ... read more
Chicago Bulls @ Philadelphia 76ers Thursday May 10, 2012 7:00 pm
Chicago at PhiladelphiaThe Bulls defense came through last time out but that may not be enough to avoid elimination tonight. The Sixers have shot 32% the last three games and have still held their own against this shorthanded Chicago team. Now back at home we expect the Sixers to ... read more
San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers Wednesday May 9, 2012 10:10 pm
San Francisco at Los AngelesWhile the Dodgers have gotten off to the better start to the season the Giants are every bit as good as this LA team. Lincecum started the year slowly but he's put it all together as of late. Billingsley on the other hand is regressing. Both starters have ... read more
All Bryan Leonard Sports Past Picks

