Handicapping the Bowl Games - 2007

by: Kendall Holiday

There are many things to take into account over the next three weeks when 32 football games will be played.  The bowl season always presents wonderful opportunities for players to make some cash during the holiday season.  Some things to keep in mind as we head into Bowl season.

1)      Off the field issues / problems – Which teams are facing adversity, and how will it affect them?  For instance, we all know about Florida State’s recent problems, as 20-25 players will be declared ineligible for their meeting with Kentucky.  Similarly, teams like West Virginia lost their head coach to another school, while Texas A&M, Southern Miss and UCLA all fired their coaches.  Larry Bower will be coaching the Golden Eagles one final time and it will be interesting to see how that affects his team.  In short, these things matter, and take a toll on 18-21 year old kids.  IN addition, Lloyd Carr will end his fine career at Michigan this bowl season, and there is no doubt that he’ll get his boys best effort.  Whether that will be enough against a loaded Gator team is another question.  Note: Rodney Ferguson, who is New Mexico’s running back and a very good football player will not play in the New Mexico Bowl.  Again, how does that affect the Lobos in this match-up?

2)      Intangibles – One interesting thing at work this Bowl season is Alabama playing in the same bowl game they lost in last season.  They will meet Colorado in the Independence Bowl, and you have to wonder how much Bama’s players will enjoy being there?  In addition, teams like Cal and Oregon, who had higher aspirations and rankings just weeks ago play South Florida and Air Force in the Who Cares Bowl.  You have to wonder how amped their players will be about their match-ups.  Conversely, which teams are trying to make statements in the bowl game?  Boise last season, and teams like Wyoming recently have done very well and put a lot of weight into their bowl games.  Some teams we think will be ready to play and whose programs stand to gain the most with a victory?  Colorado, Air Force, Virginia, Kansas, South Florida, Ohio State, Michigan, Illinois and Hawaii.

3)      Quarterbacks – There is not a more important position in college football than the quarterback position, and this certainly comes into play during bowl season.  If a team has a decided advantage here, it will make a big difference in the outcome of the game provided that player plays to his capabilities.  Some of the mismatches we see are Missouri over Arkansas, Kentucky over Florida State, Boise State over East Carolina, BYU over UCLA, and Hawaii over Georgia.  Now, how do we define good QB play in the college game?  Taking care of the football is #1, playmaking ability and the ability to make the throws and move the chains is #2.  These are only instances where we feel there is a definitive advantage.

4)      Conferences – Which conference was the best in the regular season?  We have heard all about the SEC, and PAC 10 all season long, and it will be interesting to see how it pans out.  The Big 12 seemed to improve this season as well, but we’ll know everything come January 7th.  Everyone in the media has praised the SEC all season long and bashed the Big Ten.  Something tells us the Big Ten has a BIG showing this bowl season.  They have plenty of good match-ups to show their mettle in OSU / LSU, Penn State / Texas A&M, Tennessee / Wisconsin, and Michigan / Florida.  When the dust settles, we’ll know who is best but look for trends early on in bowl season that either support a conference or go against its supposed superiority.  The media is a fickle bunch and so is Vegas.  There will be some nice money making opportunities come New Years Day and beyond.

Please keep in mind that everyone of our bowl selections are available at Top Ten Cappers on an individual basis, or a package.  The best investment is the package which will save you over $700.

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