Extra Stuffing: Thanksgiving Week Rivalry Trends

by: Vegas Jack

Extra Stuffing – Turkey Week College Football Trends
By: VegasJack (@vegasjack2)

Don’t have time to do your football research this holiday weekend? Don’t worry, I have you covered.

Here are trends for this weekend’s biggest games.

ATS: Against the Spread
SU: Straight up (Outright win)
BB: Back to Back

Texas @ Texas A&M
Thursday, November 24th, 2011 8:00pm EST (ESPN)
Spread: Texas A&M -8

• Texas is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
• Against a team with a winning record, Texas is 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games.
• Playing on a short week of six or less days, the Longhorns are 4-13 ATS in the past 17 games.

• The Aggies are 6-1 ATS following a game where they accumulated more than 450 total yards on offense.
• In their last 9 November games, A&M have covered the spread 7 times.
• In the past 31 November home games, the Aggies are 22-9 ATS.
• Coming off a SU win of 20 points or more, A&M have covered the spread just once in their last six tries.

Arkansas @ LSU
Friday, November 25th, 2011 2:30pm EST (CBS)
Spread: LSU -12.5

• The Razorbacks are 12-1 ATS following a game where they played over the total.
• In Arkansas’ past 26 games played in November, they have covered 21.
• After accumulating more than 285 yards passing in their previous game, Arkansas has covered 15 of the next 20.
• Coming off a game scoring 39 or more points, Arkansas has covered 20 of 26 games.

• LSU is on a 19-41 ATS run at home off of a road game.
• As a home favorite of 10.5 or more, the Bayou Bengals have covered the spread just 5 of the last 18 games.
• After games in which the Tigers allowed less than 250 total yards, they are 7-0 ATS in the next game.
• When holding teams to less than 9 points in their previous game, the Tigers are 12-2 ATS.

Pittsburgh @ West Virginia
Friday, November 25th, 2011, 7:30pm EST (ESPN)
Spread: West Virginia -7.5

• The Panthers are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games off a bye week.
• As a road underdog of 3-10 points, Pittsburgh are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14.
• In Pittsburgh’s last 21 Big East games, they have covered the spread in 16.

• West Virginia has covered the spread in 6 of their last 7 games played in November.
• Coming off a game in which the Mountaineers accumulated more than 275 yards passing, they have covered the spread 4 straight times.
• In the last 8 home games, West Virginia is 2-6 ATS.

Ohio State @ Michigan
Saturday, November 26th, 2011 12:00pm EST (ABC)
Spread: Michigan -7.5

• Michigan is 22-4 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Ohio State is 24-9-1 ATS in their last 34 road games overall.
• Following an ATS loss the Buckeyes are 20-8 ATS.
• In the last 6 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing, Ohio State is 6-0 ATS.
• Against Michigan State, the Buckeyes are 4-0 ATS overall and 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings played in Ann Arbor.

• Michigan is 7-23 ATS in their last 30 facing Big 10 opponents.
• The Wolverines are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games played during November.
• Against a team with a winning record, the Wolverines have covered just 5 of the past 19 games.
• As a favorite Michigan is 5-1 ATS in their last 6.
• In the past 8 games overall, Michigan has covered 6.

Penn State @ Wisconsin
Saturday, November 26th, 2011 3:30pm EST (ABC)
Spread: Wisconsin -14.5

• Penn State is 21-8 ATS following a game where they rushed for more than 200 yards.
• The Nittany Lions are 8-20-1 ATS in the last 29 games after gaining less than 170 yards through the air in their previous game.
• Following a SU win, Penn State is just 2-8 ATS.
• Against a team with a winning record, the Lions are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games.

• Off back to back SU wins, Wisconsin is 8-1 ATS at home.
• As a double digit favorite, the Badgers have covered 8 consecutive games.
• Wisconsin has covered 10 of their last 11 as home chalk.
• Following a SU win, the Badgers have covered 12 of the last 15 games.
• Wisconsin is just 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games following a game in which they failed to gain more than 160 yards passing.

Alabama @ Auburn
Saturday, November 26th, 2011 3:30pm EST (CBS)
Spread: Auburn +20.5

• The Tide has covered four straight games off a game in which they rushed for more than 200 yards.
• Coming off a win of more than 20 points, Alabama is 7-1 ATS in their next game.
• In the past 19 road games, Alabama is 13-6 ATS.
• In November, the Tide has covered just 2 of their last 8 games.
• Alabama is 36-18 ATS away from home off back to back SU wins.

• Auburn is 6-0 ATS following a SU win where they failed to cover the spread.
• The Tigers have covered 5 in a row as a home underdog.
• Against SEC opponents Auburn has covered 10 of the last 13.
• Auburn is 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
• The Tigers have gone just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in the previous game.

UCLA @ USC
Saturday, November 26th, 2011 10:00pm EST (FSN)
Spread: USC -14.5

• UCLA is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog.
• The Bruins are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games overall.
• Against Pac-12 opponents UCLA have cashed in ATS just 5 of the last 18 tries.
• UCLA has covered just 5 of their last 17 games following a game where the Bruins accumulated more than 450 yards.
• Against a team with a winning record, UCLA has failed to cover the spread in their last four.
• UCLA has gone 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against USC.

• USC is 16-4 ATS at home off back to back covers.
• In November, the Trojans have covered 35 of their last 51.
• On grass USC is 6-1 in their last 7 ATS.
• The Trojans are 6-2 ATS after gaining more than 500 yards on offense in their previous game.
• Following an ATS win the Trojans are just 6-13 ATS.
• The designated home team between these two has covered 6 of the last 8 games.

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