Exposing Bogus NFL-X Systems - Part 2

by: Nite Owl Sports

In an article published in the Top Ten newsletter last week, I explored a few of the more common systems used for betting NFL-X, particularly in week 3 of the pre-season, and with the use of actual game results (in most cases from the past three years), exposed those popular systems as being bogus for the most part. In this sequel to that article, I do the same with respect to a few of of the most popular systems for betting sides and totals in the final week of the NFL pre-season.

The systems involving side plays are very similar to the ones discussed, checked out and exposed for week three, except that in the case of week four we are dealing with a smaller sampling of teams, those which have either won or lost all three of their prior pre-season games. Like the similar systems discussed last week involving 0-2 and 2-0 teams, these 3-0 and 0-3 systems are both logical, but neither has worked particularly well for the past three years. In tabulating the results of my applying these two systems to all NFL pre-season games played for the past three years, I divided the results year by year, and into the four basic categories (home faves, home dogs, road dogs, and road faves, with home dogs including home teams at "pick em" and road faves including road teams at "pick em."

First week 4 system - – this system is to go with any team that has lost all of its first three pre-season games, the rationale being that with pre-season games not "counting, " the more desperate team (i.e, the 0-3 team) will want to win more than its opponent, and will do so. The system is logical, but in looking at the 2005 through 2007 pre-seasons, we found that the system was active (i.e, the 0-3 situation occurred) 11 times, and that teams in this 0-3 position were a disappointing 5-6 ATS, with none of the three years producing a winning record for the system, and out of the four aforementioned point spread categories, none stood out as being particularly good or bad.

Second week 4 system – this system is the converse of system #1 above, and it’s to bet against any team that won all of its first three pre-season games, the rationale being that the 3-0 team will relax and not approach game 4 with the same intensity as its opponent, and will thus lose, at least ATS if not SU as well. Like the first system, this one is also logical, but had disappointing results. The system was active just six times from 2005 through 2007, and its three year total was 3-3. We looked for road faves in this situation, as (if you recall from our last week’s article) 2-0 road faves were 0-6 ATS in game 3 for past three years.. We found two (3-0) road faves, but they were 1-1.

Third week 4 system - this system is a combination of the two above systems, and it’s to go with any team that has lost its first three pre-season games if it is playing a team that won its first three. Like the first two systems, this one is also logical, but has produced just one play over the last three pre-seasons (in 2006, with Pitt losing by 2 to Carolina but covering as a 3 point home dog), not nearly enough of a sampling to be the basis for anything. This year the system is not active in any week four games. But as a means of comparison, the similar 0-2 vs 2-0 system for week 3 (discussed in last week’s article) was active in 3 games last week,, with the 0-2 Cleveland Browns as 3 point dogs visiting the 2-0 Detroit Lions, the 2-0 Tenn Titans as 3 point dogs visiting the hapless 0-2 Atlanta Falcons, and the 2-0 Houston Texans as 5 point dogs invading "big D" to play the 0-2 Cowboys. In those 3 games, the "system teams" (Cleve, Atlanta and Dallas ) were just 1-2 ATS.

Conclusion– so, none of these logical week four systems worked. Why not? Although no one can be expected to know all of the reasons for results of NFL-X games, we believe the most logical reason is that week 4 games simply are not amenable to any system for isolating good situational side plays because the philosophy of most NFL coaches for the final pre-season game is to just "get the damn game played" without sustaining any injuries which will cause players (especially starters) to miss any playing time the following week, when the real season starts. That being the case with most coaches, it cannot realistically be expected that the game will be played with much intensity by either side, or for that matter that the "regulars" will spend much time (and in many cases no time) on the field. But this leads to the followiing two interesting theories, one specific and one general. The first is that if the game 4 records of the coaches for each team (including the "box scores" to see how much playing time key players were given by each coach) are checked for the past few years, certain coaches will stand out as being particularly good bets in game 4, while others will be just the opposite (and good to bet against). Obviously if you get a game 4 "go with" coach pitted against a game 4 "go against" coach, you’ve potentially got the makings of a solid game 4 side play . For tonite’s and friday’s games, we have isolated a few week 4 "go with" and "go against" NFL coaches, and that was used as one of the factors in determining our week four NFL side plays, of which there will be at least three tonite and two Friday night.

The other theory growing out of the fact that most NFL coaches don’t care about winning game 4 nearly as much as about getting through it injury free is that with week four games being played with low intensity and with limited (if any) minutes by many of each team’s skill players, the under should be a good play in most if not all week four games. This theory, like the others, is logical, so it’s worth exploring how the under did in all week four games for the last three pre-seasons. In doing so, we grouped the results based on the year and the totals line of each game. For example, all results of games with totals lines of 33 to 36.5 were lumped together, as were games with totals lines of 37 to 39.5, 40 to 41.5, 42 to 43.5, and 44> (the few games with totals lines of < 33 were excluded from the survey). What we found was that while week 4 unders overall had a great year (11-4-1) last (pre) season and a decent (8-6-1) year in 2006, that was neutralized somewhat by the poor week 4 unders year (6-11) in 2005, resulting in an overall week 4 under record of 25-21-2, nothing to get too excited about. But more revealing than the groupings by season was the fact that while the under was just 12-14 for the 3 years when the totals line was low (between 33 and 36.5), it was a much better 11-5-1 if only those games with a totals line of 37-41.5 were included (thus also excluding games with a totals line of 42>, which were 2-2 in the 3 year totals survey).

So applying the above to this week’s final slate of pre-season games, let’s see if there are any where the totals line falls within this profitable window of 37 to 41.5, and analyze any such game(s). In looking at the week 4 list of games and "lines,".we see just two that "qualify," those being Chicago at Cleve with a totals line of 39, and Denver at Arizona with a totals line of 37.

First let’s look at Cleve vs Chicago.- this is a tricky one because on the one hand, these two have played in week four in all of the last 3 pre-seasons, and all 3 games have easily gone under, with just 26 points scored, so looking at the system and recent past series history, this looks like an easy under, right? Not exactly, because the foregoing must be balanced against the present reality of Chicago’s "swiss cheese defense" in their first three NFL-X games TY, all of which have easily gone over, including the one road game at Seattle, in which 55 points were scored and the once feared "Monsters of the Midway" looked more like an act of "dancing bears." Then there’s Cleve, which was involved in a 71 point game just two weeks ago in NY against the Giants. Would you take a chance on betting the under in this game? No, I didn’t think so (and neither would we).

Then there’s the Denver-Arizona match-up, which has better under potential. Like Chicago and Cleve, these two teams have played each other in game 4 in all of the last 3 years, but the over has gone 2-1 (although the under was the only series game coached by current Arizona HC Ken "Wiz" Whisenhunt). Denver is 1-0 under TY in its one road game, with 35 points scored at Houston in week one, and AZ is also 1-0 under in its one game played at home TY, with 34 points scored, also in week one. Looking at LY’s low scoring game between these two teams, we notice that not only did #1 Denver QB Jay Cutler not play, but #1 Cards QB Matt Leinhart threw just 6 passes and back-up Kurt Warner just2 – no wonder only 24 total points were scored. But then looking at the 2006 game 4 between these two, we see that Cutler played for most of that game, and had 200 YP, which contributed to the high (29-23) final score. While both QB Matt Leinhart and Kurt Warner also played substantial minutes for Cards in that 2006 game, that fact is irrelevant, as Arizona then had a different coach, the departed Dennis Green. So whether this game goes over or under will be determined largely by how much these coaches play their top QBs, if at all, and neither coach is saying much in that regard. Based on the above, we would also suggest "passing" on the total for this game, but we do have two other totals picks (both unders) in tonite’s games which we believe have more support than betting the under in this game. But we wanted to show you how we analyze these games, with our goal being not only to isolate good betting situations to produce winners for our clients but also to avoid bad ones such as the above two "coin flips" which could easily go either way.

And speaking of isolating good betting situations to produce winners for our clients, we have already posted 8 college FB picks for this WE’s games, in addition to our 5-7 NFL-X picks that we will have for tonite’s and Friday night’s games. At just $75 for a three day (Thursday thru Saturday) all sports pass giving you all of that action, plus our MLB picks for those three days, you can’t find a better deal anywhere, except for our NFL-CFB full season special for $599.

This article copyrighted by Nite Owl Sports for its exclusive use and that of Top Ten Cappers.

Nite Owl Sports Past Articles

2008 MLB World Series Preview
This article is the final sequel to Nite Owl's two earlier MLB playoff previews (of the four divisional playoff series, and then both league championship ... read more

Red Sox on the Ropes
The Tampa Rays are now one game away from a World Series "date" with the Philadelphia Phillies, after pounding the defending World Champion ... read more

2008 MLB Championship Series Playoff Preview
2008 MLB Championship Series Playoff Preview This article is a sequel to Nite Owl's MLB playoff preview (of the four divisional playoff series) published ... read more

2008 MLB Playoff Preview – Divisional series
For most baseball fans, this is the most exciting time of the year, especially for fans of the “elite eight” teams that have earned the right ... read more

Using Second Half Bets for Line Value
The popularity of second half betting has grown in recent years, with so many games on so many different channels on any given Saturday or Sunday, plus ... read more

All Nite Owl Sports Past Articles

Nite Owl Sports Recent Past Picks

NFL Football

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals Monday November 10, 2008 8:30 pm
Game update --see end of write upo Since there are no odds posted on whether Niner interim HC Mike Singletary will "drop trou" during his HT "speech" to his team like he did last game after a miserable Niner first half in humbling home loss to Seahags, and totals ... read more

Nite Owl Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Nite Owl Sports

NFL Football

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals Monday November 10, 2008 8:30 pm
The scoring patterns of both teams so far TY in their respective modes for this game (SF away and Ariz home) clearly support this pick. More specifically, Ariz is 3-0 at home vs 1Q line, with average 1Q lead of 9 points, while SF is 1-2 away vs 1Q line, with average first quarter ... read more

Nite Owl Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Nite Owl Sports

NFL Football

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals Monday November 10, 2008 8:30 pm
Well, the over has already gone pretty much into the "toilet," with lots of Sunday night betting pressure on the over causing the full game totals line to move up to and now past 47 to 47.5 at some books (and on Top Ten picks menu), and 1H totals line to increase from 23 ... read more

Nite Owl Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Nite Owl Sports

NBA Basketball

Toronto Raptors @ Boston Celtics Monday November 10, 2008 7:30 pm
Final Game update --see end of write up for indiv team totals plays and full game betting attack strategy Initial write-up -- We like the Boston Celtics tonite over the Toronto Raptors, mainly because both teams are both off a game last night, and statistically. teams who have ... read more

Nite Owl Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Nite Owl Sports

NBA Basketball

Portland Trailblazers @ Orlando Magic Monday November 10, 2008 7:00 pm
While we are not wild about this game, Orlando has enough edges to recommend them as a two unit play at line of -7 or less. More specifically:Orlando positives1. Magic were 10-5 ATS LY at home vs B teams like Blazers, with average MOV of 7 points inthose 15 games, and 9-9 ATS in ... read more

Nite Owl Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Nite Owl Sports

NFL Football

New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles Sunday November 9, 2008 8:15 pm
Game update - see end of write up for full under betting attack strategyWe like the under here, in a game that will be hard played by both teams and, we expect, very close. Last year when these two met in Philly, Giants took home a 16-13 win, inn a game dominated by the defenses ... read more

Nite Owl Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Nite Owl Sports

NBA Basketball

Boston Celtics @ Detroit Pistons Sunday November 9, 2008 6:00 pm
We like the defending champs in this match-up, where a SU win will get the money. Celtics were 8-3 ATS LY (reg season) as a road dog, and 5-3 ATS away vs A teams (Det being a B+ or A- team at this point), with average MOV of one point, while Pistons LY in reg season were 2-2 ATS ... read more

Nite Owl Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Nite Owl Sports

NFL Football

Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers Sunday November 9, 2008 4:15 pm
We've said it before, and we'll say it again -- picking winners on NFL totals is as much a numbers game as anything else, and with us leaning towards the over in this game, based mostly on Steelers' strong 20-6-2 home over ecord over L3+Y (incl 2-1 TY), we look at the numbers for ... read more

Nite Owl Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Nite Owl Sports

NFL Football

Carolina Panthers @ Oakland Raiders Sunday November 9, 2008 4:05 pm
Game update - see end of write up for indiv team totals play and our full Carolina betting attack strategyWhile Carolina is a good team and has won for us several times TY, this pick is mostly AGAINST THE PATHETIC OAKLAN RAIDERS, who last week plunged to depths lower than the stock ... read more

Nite Owl Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Nite Owl Sports

NFL Football

Carolina Panthers @ Oakland Raiders Sunday November 9, 2008 4:05 pm
Looking at Oak's 3 home games (excluding Raiders' opener vs denver, which they clearly were not ready for, on either offense or defense), these two teams are 3-3 combined vs first half total, with an average of 16.5 points scored in those six games. So with the first half total at ... read more

Nite Owl Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Nite Owl Sports

All Nite Owl Sports Past Picks