Exposing Bogus NFL-X Systems

by: Nite Owl Sports

Anyone who has bet sports for any significant amount of time been exposed to numerous systems through the years, all claiming to be the key that unlocks the “mystery “ of being able to win consistently against the point spread and “the man.” With football being by far the most popular sport to bet, most of those systems involve either pro or college football, and since by August most football “junkies” are so desperate for some football betting action that they are willing to try to get a “head start” on the season by betting the NFL pre-season, a number of systems have also sprung up for betting what has come to be known as “NFL-X.” or the “X games.”  

The problem with these systems is that nearly all of them are logical, and when they are presented there is typically some support (for the system) in the form of results from recent prior seasons. These systems are potentially dangerous, especially to inexperienced sports handicappers, because they give you a false sense of confidence and security, but when you put them into action, many of them simply don’t work. In this article I explore a few of the more common systems used for betting NFL-X, particularly in week 3 of the pre-season, which is now upon us., and with the use of actual game results (in most cases from the past three years), expose these popular systems as being bogus for the most part. 

The first two systems involve teams that either won or lost their first two pre-season games, and while they are both logical, neither has worked particularly well for the past three years. In tabulating the results of my applying these two systems to all NFL pre-season games played for the past three years, I organized the results year by year, and divided them into the four basic categories (home faves, home dogs, road dogs, and road faves), with home dogs including home teams at “pick em” and road faves including road teams at “pick em.”

 First week 3 system  - – this system is to go with any team that has lost its first two pre-season games, the rationale being that with pre-season games not “counting, ” the more desperate team (i.e, the 0-2 team) will want to win more than its opponent, and will do so. The system is logical, and it has had some good runs over the last 20 or so years, but in looking at the 2005- 2007 pre-seasons, we found that the system was active (i.e, the situation occurred) 21 times, and that teams in this 0-2  position were a disappointing 8-12-1 ATS, with only 2007 producing a winning record (4-2) for the system, and 2005 being a disaster at 2-6-1. Out of the four major point spread categories, only road faves had a winning record, and just barely, at 3-2.  

Second week 3 system – this system is the converse of system #1 above, and it’s to bet against any team that won its first two pre-season games, the rationale being that the 2-0 team will relax and not approach the game with the same intensity as its opponent, and will thus lose, at least ATS if not SU as well. Like the first system, this one is also logical, and it has had some good runs over the last 20 or so years. The system was active 19 times from 2005 through 2007, and was 5-0 last year and 5-3 in 2005, but that’s about all of the good news for the system, as it went 0-6 in 2006, bringing the three year total to 10-9. The only bright spot for the system is that if the 2-0 team was a road fave, the system was a perfect 6-0, but unfortunately all we can do with that valuable nugget of info is put it into our memory bank, as after looking at this week’s NFL-X card, there are no 2-0 road faves.  

Third week 3 system - this system is a combination of the two above systems, and it’s to go with any team that has lost its first two pre-season games if it is paying a team that won its first two. Like the first two systems, this one is also logical, and it has had some good runs over the last 20 or so years, but has produced too few plays over the last three pre-seasons (system was 2-2 in only four games) to provide any kind of reliable sampling. Interestingly enough, the system is active in four games this WE, with 0-2 the Cleveland Browns visiting the 2-0 Detroit Lions, the 0-2 Jax Jags visiting the 2-0 Tampa Bay Bucs, the 2-0 Tenn Titans visiting the hapless 0-2 Atlanta Falcons, and the 2-0 Houston Texans invading “big D” to play the 0-2 Cowboys. Doesn’t it look weird to see a zero in the loss column for Detroit and Houston, and in the win column for the Cowboys? In any event, it will indeed be interesting to see how this system does this WE. 

Week 3 totals systems 

Next we have two week three totals systems, one of which is a subset of the first. Again, they are both very logical, and are based on the assumption that there will be more/higher scoring in week 3 than in weeks 1 and 2, because not only has each offense by now “shaken off the cobwebs” by having played two games, but also most NFL coaches play their “regulars” more minutes in game 3 than any other game of the pre-season, making week 3 look more like the regular season than any other week of the pre-season. The problem with this logic is that it has not escaped the line makers, who typically adjust the totals lines upward for week 3. But let’s see how the Over has done in week 3 during the last three pre-seasons.

Week 3 over system #1 – play every week 3 game to go over the total. Obviously there were a lot of plays for the last three years, since the system is active for every game played in week 3. The results (39 overs to 58 unders) were very discouraging for this system, shooting down another logical system that simply has not worked. 

Week 3 over system #2 – play the over in those week 3 games where the games played by both teams in week 2 went over, the rationale being that if both teams went over in week 2, they are even more likely to go over in week 3, with their regulars playing more minutes than in week 2. Again, a logical system, but the results just aren’t there, as the system’s three year record is just a “wheel spinning” 25-26-3, which is not as bad as the broader, less refined totals system #1 above, but is still a big loser when 10% “juice” on losing bets is figured in. 

 Final system – going with the “steam” -- I saved the biggest “sucker system” for last, as we hear people “touting” it every August, and that’s to see what sides or totals “all the money is on,” based on line movement, and then go the same way, or “with the steam,” even though you are not getting good line value at all, since you are “paying” for this “valuable information” by taking a “haircut” with the line after the line move. The rationale for this system is that there is all kinds of “inside information” available during the pre-season that is not typically available during the regular season, as the amount of playing time that key players get is usually up to the discretion and whim of their coach, who will occasionally even state his intentions for an upcoming (NFL-X) game, regarding such things as game plan, what the team will be primarily “working on” in the game, and how much playing time the regulars (particularly the # 1 QBs and other key offensive performers) will get. Again the system is logical, as is the inference that “somebody knows something” if there is a sudden, major line move. But let’s look at how a bettor would have done so far this pre-season by “chasing” the money on big line moves (below is a list including most of the major line moves in pre-season games so far TY, and how one would have done by “going with the steam).”  

 Philly goes from +3 to –2 vs Pitt                                 Result - SU loss by Philly

Wash goes from –3.5 to –5.5 vs Buffalo                      Result - Wash 3 point win (ATS loss) 

Tampa Bay goes from +2 to –1 against Miami               Result- win and cover for Tampa  

Pitt goes from +2.5 to –1 at Buffalo                                     Result – loss by Pitt

Minny drops from 3 point dog to 1 point dog at Balt               Result – win by Minny

Atlanta goes from pick to –3 vs Indy                                     Result – loss by Atlanta

StL Rams go from pick to –4 vs SD                                Result – 1 point win/ATS loss by Rams

Chi Bears go from +2 to –3 at Seattle                                Result – loss by Bears

Tampa goes from +1 to –3 vs NE Pats                              Result – win by Tampa

Total on SD- Rams drops from 37.5 to 36 on game day        Result – win on under 

 Total on SF vs Bears drops from 37 to 36 on game day             Result – loss on under 

Results of going with TY's line moves =  4 wins 7 losses

So there’s another popular and logical NFL-X system which we have exposed as being bogus, at least lately.

The main lesson to be learned from our research and the foregoing expose’ is that there is no “quick fix” to winning in sports betting, whether it’s the NFL, college FB, the NFL pre-season, or even the WNBA. There is no substitute for solid research, hard work and good analytical thinking, which is what goes into all of our picks at Nite Owl Sports. That’s how we built our winning records (see us on numerous Top Ten leader boards) and how we will continue to improve on those records for our subscribers. 

We are having two “try us out” specials this WE, one being our 3 Day NFL Pass for $50, which gives you two complimentary days of NFL-X (since the price of our One Day NFL Pass for Saturday’s loaded card will also be $50), and the other one being our One Day All Sports Pass for $50, which will give you all of our NFL-X picks and MLB picks for that day (and we have been on fire lately in MLB). We already have three NFL picks posted for Friday and Saturday, and likely will have 3-5 more. So why don’t you give us a chance this WE to show what we can do for you?  

This article copyrighted by Nite Owl Sports for its exclusive use and that of Top Ten Cappers.

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