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Exploiting Weaknesses

by: Bryan Leonard Sports

  Strategically, football has similarities to war. Commanding officers use photographs of rival positions in an attempt to identify weaknesses in the enemy lines, then plot their offensive strategies accordingly. A smart commander doesn’t have his men go head on at the enemies’ strongest defensive positions – you exploit the weak spots. Football coaches devise Xs and Os in their game plans and watch endless hours of film. Any soft spots will help them exploit weaknesses in an attempt to find victory on the gridiron.

   An obvious example is when a strong rushing team faces an opponent that can’t stop the run. Navy, Air Force and Georgia Tech have had an outstanding ground game the last few years. In one matchup a few years back the Midshipmen faced a small Tulane defensive line. This was the story the previous season when Navy ripped through Tulane, 35-17, as a 9-point home favorite. In the rematch Navy rolled up 300 yards rushing on a whopping 68 carries, getting the cover easily in a 29-0 win. This is basic strategy, too – “We’re going to run the ball, can you stop it?”

   Sometimes those weaknesses change from season to season and it’s up to the handicapper to stay informed. The Arizona Wildcats and was a weak defensive team until Mike Stoops came aboard as coach, who had worked with his brother Bob to build the Oklahoma defense into a powerhouse unit.

  Mike Stoops had great success for many years as a defensive coordinator, which was a large factor in him getting the Arizona job. In his first year, Wisconsin came to town and the Wildcats were much improved against the run. It wasn’t a shock to see the Badgers struggle offensively, gaining 262 total yards, just 3.1 yards per rushing attempt. Wisconsin was lucky to squeeze out a win, but Arizona got the cover as a +10 home dog. The point is, Arizona was no longer a weak team against the run because of the new coaching staff, which has designed game plans to stop the run wherever they’ve been.

  Keep tabs on the Florida State defense this season, as another Stoops brother (Mark) is running their defense, beginning his second season.

   Many times teams can struggle early in the season because they step up in competition and look bad. But don’t write them off yet, especially with conference games on the horizon. I recall when Toledo had a terrific offense behind gifted QB Bruce Gradkowski. The Rockets struggled badly in their first two games, but that was against teams from the Big 10 and Big 12. Then Toledo stepped back into MAC competition taking on rebuilding Eastern Michigan. Eastern Michigan lacked speed and bulk on defense and didn’t match up well at all with a talented and veteran Toledo offense. Don’t be fooled by that 42-32 final score – Toledo led 42-17 going into the fourth and finished with 204 rushing yards and 338 passing! Gradkowski was outstanding, completing 22-of-29 passes and accounted for 5 TDs (3 passing, 2 rushing). Toledo covered and used their strength (a versatile offense) against Eastern Michigan’s big weakness (‘D’).

   So keep updated on injuries, coaching changes and the strength and weaknesses of both college and pro teams. It will help you identify good teams to play on and ones to play against each week.

 


Bryan Leonard Sports Past Articles

The Zig Zag Theory
Let’s talk about zigzags. No, that’s not some ski slope maneuver. Nor is it someone who says one thing and then does another. Sports bettors ... read more

NBA Playoffs Betting
The NBA playoffs are off and running. There are a lot of ways to analyze who has the edge, from matchups, key statistics (rebounding, turnovers), spread ... read more

NBA Personnel Changes and Lineups
Like a stock broker, a good handicapper has to keep up with the changes that take place on and off the court. This is particularly true this time of year. ... read more

NBA Embarrassment
Many teams get embarrassed during an NBA season, even the playoffs, which are approaching. After all, it's a long season and even good teams get smacked ... read more

The NBA Stretch Run: Does Anybody Care?
Does anyone really care in the NBA? I'm not talking about fans, I'm referring to the players. Certainly a lot of players have pride and want to give their ... read more

All Bryan Leonard Sports Past Articles


Bryan Leonard Sports Past Picks

Bryan Leonard Sports Bryan Leonard Sports
NBA Basketball

Los Angeles Clippers @ San Antonio Spurs Tuesday May 15, 2012 9:35 pm
LA Clippers at San AntonioTerrible spot for the Clippers who had to go the distance with Memphis and win a short handed game on the road just to advance. The Spurs are the vastly more experienced team and they own a major rest advantage. The line is high for a reason and unlike last ... read more

Bryan Leonard Sports Bryan Leonard Sports
MLB Baseball

Cleveland Indians @ Minnesota Twins Monday May 14, 2012 8:10 pm
Cleveland at MinnesotaThe Twins have finally gotten to the point where they are producing value. To make Pavano a sizable home dog against the slumping offense of the Indians is simply a mistake. Pavano, a former Indian, has a career ERA of 2.83 against the Tribe. Gomez has a bright ... read more

Bryan Leonard Sports Bryan Leonard Sports
MLB Baseball

Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox Sunday May 13, 2012 2:10 pm
Kansas City at ChicagoHere we get the better starter and a plus money price. Danny Duffy is starting to come into his own as the best starter on this Kansas City staff. He fared very well in his only career start against the White Sox and we expect another strong performance here. Phillip ... read more

Bryan Leonard Sports Bryan Leonard Sports
MLB Baseball

Cleveland Indians @ Boston Red Sox Sunday May 13, 2012 1:35 pm
Cleveland at BostonJustin Masterson came up in the Boston organization and he was traded a few years ago to Cleveland in the Victor Martinez deal. We know Masterson has never forgotten that. He gets especially up for facing his old team with a 1.95 career ERA against them.Daniel ... read more

Bryan Leonard Sports Bryan Leonard Sports
NBA Basketball

Denver Nuggets @ Los Angeles Lakers Saturday May 12, 2012 10:30 pm
 Denver at Los AngelesThe Nuggets have made a nice comeback to even this series but their season is likely to end tonight. Home teams in game sevens are always a positive play and the line in this game hasn't been inflated. The return of Meta World Peace and the undressing of ... read more

Bryan Leonard Sports Bryan Leonard Sports
MLB Baseball

Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers Friday May 11, 2012 10:10 pm
Colorado at Los AngelesLow total in a Jamie Moyer game is always a solid reason to play the Over. Moyer has a lifetime 5.50 ERA in his 72 inning career against the Dodgers. And keep in mind much of that was in his prime. Moyer is a crafty pitcher but his best days are behind him.Capuano ... read more

Bryan Leonard Sports Bryan Leonard Sports
MLB Baseball

New York Mets @ Miami Marlins Friday May 11, 2012 7:10 pm
New York at MiamiLarge pitching edge in this one for the underdog as Santana has a career ERA of 1.46 in 68 lifetime innings against the Marlins. Well aware that the Mets will be seeing Buehrle for the first time but at this price the Mets are well worth a wager. Miami is playing ... read more

Bryan Leonard Sports Bryan Leonard Sports
MLB Baseball

Houston Astros @ Pittsburgh Pirates Friday May 11, 2012 7:05 pm
Houston at PittsburghAs good as McDonald has been this season we can't see the Pirates being a favorite of this size over anybody. Pittsburgh doesn't score enough offensively to be a sizable favorite and we're not sure that Houston doesn't have the pitching advantage. Norris has ... read more

Bryan Leonard Sports Bryan Leonard Sports
NBA Basketball

Chicago Bulls @ Philadelphia 76ers Thursday May 10, 2012 7:00 pm
Chicago at PhiladelphiaThe Bulls defense came through last time out but that may not be enough to avoid elimination tonight. The Sixers have shot 32% the last three games and have still held their own against this shorthanded Chicago team. Now back at home we expect the Sixers to ... read more

Bryan Leonard Sports Bryan Leonard Sports
MLB Baseball

San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers Wednesday May 9, 2012 10:10 pm
San Francisco at Los AngelesWhile the Dodgers have gotten off to the better start to the season the Giants are every bit as good as this LA team. Lincecum started the year slowly but he's put it all together as of late. Billingsley on the other hand is regressing. Both starters have ... read more