Buffalo for a 3* play

by: John Ryan Sports

EDGE Article
October 13, 2009
Buffalo at the NY Jets
4:15 EST start

I nailed another 10* MNF winner with the Dolphins as they truly exposed the holes in the Jets defense. It wasn’t just the Wild Cat either that took its’ toll on that defense that allowed THREE go ahead touch downs in the 4th quarter. Short week for preparation and a bit of adversity for this Jets team may provide the best opportunity for Buffalo to gain some much needed respect with a solid showing in New Jersey.

The Dolphins did a great job on nose tackle Kris Jenkins. He commands double teams on most every running play, but what Miami did was to use zone blocking to get him moving laterally. This in turn game the RB’s  cut back lanes or simply solid holes in the middle of the line. Buffalo has been horrific in protecting their QB on 3rd and long situations. No doubt they will see what Miami did to get the running game in high gear and that will keep them out of third and long situations. This will also allow Edwards extra time by utilize play action and those are the situations that can get TO in man coverage and high percentage pass opportunities.

The Jets are averaging 4.1 rushing yards per carry, but is not a true reflection of the running game. They had 38 yards rushing on 2 fake punts against the Dolphins and they have used a wide array of gadget and reverse plays. They are NOT a dominating running team between the tackles. With injuries to the Buffalo LB starters, the Jets will certainly try to run the ball between the tackles, but I do not see it being effective and the Buffalo defensive perimeter has done an excellent job remaining disciplined in pursuit.

Combine the fundamental research with an Ai Simulator grading of 3 stars and you have the potential for a very close game. AiS shows a 70% probability that Buffalo will lose this game by 10 or fewer points. Her eis a supporting system that has gone 109-59 for 65% winners since 1983. That’s a 26-year track record of consistent winners broken out by a 47-27 10-year mark and a 26-15 5 year mark. Play on road teams that are bad team being outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game after a loss by 6 or less points. Yes, this is new coaching, but this is the first 2 game losing streak for coach Ryan. Note that the Jets are just 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. Take the Bills.

I have now hit 71% ATS winners in College Football over the past 52 premium releases. I am hitting 60% winners in the NHL and all of the plays have been DOGS so far this season. Plus, I won my 15* NLDS Game of the Year play. I went 15-5 in the 2008 MLB play-offs so my best opportunities are still yet to come.

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