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Down Year for MVC
by: Doc's Sports
For the past couple of seasons the Missouri Valley Conference has been the media darling of the NCAA Tournament. They have become a major player in the college basketball landscape despite being a basketball only mid-major conference. Through creative scheduling MVC teams amass high RPI numbers that the selection committee can't help but notice and therefore they have received multiple at-large bids similar to those of major conferences. With their recent success it appeared that they would be in for another strong conference this year, but things have blown up and traditional powers have fallen flat on their face. The following will examine the conference as it relates to the upcoming March Madness tournament.
In recent years the conference has done a great job in improving their RPI by having a great strategy in their non-conference scheduling. The RPI stand for ratings percentage index and is one of the major statistics the Tournament Selection Committee looks at when determining the best 32 at-large teams. It factors in the teams you have played, the teams you have beaten, and the location at which you beat or lost to them. As of this writing the No. 1 team in regards to RPI rankings is Tennessee, followed by Memphis, Duke, and North Carolina.
The Missouri Valley has studied these numbers and found a loophole -- you can improve your numbers by scheduling bad teams from major conferences. In recent years, Minnesota and Iowa State have shown up on numerous Missouri Valley schedules and neither of those two programs have had much success in recent years. Most likely the MVC team would pound them. You would assume such a non-quality win would not help their RPI. But that is not the case, since both Minnesota and Iowa play in major conference, their strength of schedule numbers (a key component in RPI) would go through the roof and thus have a carryover effect to the Missouri Valley team that beat them.
The conference also would never schedule any teams that would likely be below the top 200 within the RPI rankings. Teams like Furman, Alcorn State and Jacksonville State often are easy victories but they do more damage then good because margin of victory is not considered in the equation for the RPI. So, despite the 40-point victory teams would fall in the standings and the Valley realized this and scheduled accordingly.
Because of this intelligent planning the conference was rewarded with multiple bids to the NCAA Tournament the last couple of seasons. This is a major boost the economy for the schools and the strategy appeared to be doing well when the 2007-2008 season began. Southern Illinois was coming off a Sweet 16 performance and returned three starters from that squad. Bradley, Northern Iowa, and Creighton are all traditional powers and many assumed they would also be competing for tournament bids come March.
But the conference has been anything but stable this year, starting with the preseason favorite, Southern Illinois blowing up and losing their offensive punch. After a 3-0 start the Salukis fell apart, losing five out of their next six games to some bad teams like Saint Louis, Western Michigan and Charlotte. Those losses were before conference play started and this gave Drake the opening to the top spot and they have never looked back since. With the exception of Drake, the conference has looked lackluster, with nobody else rising to the top and the middle-rung teams have just been beating up on one another. Illinois State currently sits in second place and has five losses in conference. In fact, four games is all that separates seven teams and a couple of MVC teams have just one road victory on the season. Because of this great balance the conference will likely only have one representative in the tournament unless someone would happen to upset Drake and receive the automatic bid. Drake is the only team that stands a chance for an at-large selection and that is a given assuming that they do not implode with just four regular season games remaining. They have already locked-up the No. 1 seed in the upcoming MVC Tournament in the Gateway City.
So, despite all the careful planning the MVC did in their non-conference schedule, one fact still remains, "Teams earn tournament bids, not conferences." This season the league has seen great parity and it will cost them in the rankings, as only two teams at most will receive tournament bids. Look for Doc's Sports College Basketball selections to stay hot, as we are one of the best in the nation in handicapping the collegiate hardwood. March Madness is just a week away and we want you along for the winning ride. Be sure to check out our winning packages.
by Max Powers - 02/19/2008
Doc's Sports Past Articles
NHL Betting: The Week's Biggest Stories
by T.O. Whenham - 11/18/2008We're settling into the slow, steady rhythms of the middle of the NHL season when nothing happens too quickly. This is when ... read more
2008-2009 College Basketball Predictions
The college basketball season is slowly but surely get underway. It will be a while before people start paying a lot of attention, but it's never too ... read more
Pac-10 Conference Basketball Predictions
It's simply amazing to me how perfectly in sync the Pac-10 Conference is this year in terms of football and basketball.Both football and hoops seemed ... read more
Finding Value in Second Half of Season
We are now more than halfway through the NFL season. That means we have seen more than enough football to form opinions of the teams in the league. More ... read more
NFL Betting: Best and Worst Against the Spread
We are halfway through the NFL season, give or take. This is a good time, then, for us to take a look at the teams that are being particularly kind to ... read more
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Doc's Sports Recent Past Picks
College Football
Ball State Cardinals @ Central Michigan Chippewas Wednesday November 19, 2008 7:00 pm
3 Unit Play. #104 Take Central Michigan over Ball State (Wednesday 7:00 pm ESPN 2) It end’s tonight! The Cardinals enter this game with an undefeated record but their lack of playing anybody good will finally catch up with them. The Chippewas challenged themselves during ... read more
Doc's Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Doc's Sports
NHL Hockey
Chicago Blackhawks @ Phoenix Coyotes Tuesday November 18, 2008 9:35 pm
4 Unit Play. #62 Take Phoenix over Chicago (9:35 pm NHL Center Ice) The Hawks are coming off a three game losing streak and have not been a very good team on the road this season winning just 1 of their five games. They have a lot of road games to make-up and expect them to struggle ... read more
Doc's Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Doc's Sports
College Basketball
Kentucky Wildcats @ North Carolina Tar Heels Tuesday November 18, 2008 9:00 pm
3 Unit Play. #745 Take Kentucky over North Carolina (9:00 pm ESPN) The Tar Heels are without their all everything player in Tyler Hansbrough and that void will allow the Cats to keep this game under the posted number. Granted Kentucky did lose to VMI over the weekend, but that ... read more
Doc's Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Doc's Sports
NBA Basketball
Sacramento Kings @ Memphis Grizzlies Tuesday November 18, 2008 8:00 pm
3-Unit Play #713 Take Sacramento/Memphis OVER (8 p.m. EST, Tuesday) Sacramento’s road defense has been horrible as they have allowed an average of 109 PPG in road contests this season and that doesn’t bode well for under bettors tonight against a Memphis team that ... read more
Doc's Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Doc's Sports
NBA Basketball
New York Knicks @ Boston Celtics Tuesday November 18, 2008 7:30 pm
4-Unit Play #711 Take New York Knicks /Boston UNDER (7:30 p.m. EST, Tuesday) Regardless of what the current numbers state (they are ranked No. 3 in defensive points scored and No. 1 in defensive FG%), Boston is the undisputed No. 1 defensive team in the league. Only one team ... read more
Doc's Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Doc's Sports
NBA Basketball
Atlanta Hawks @ Indiana Pacers Tuesday November 18, 2008 7:00 pm
3-Unit Play – #704 Take Indiana Over Atlanta (7 p.m. EST, Tuesday) The strength of Atlanta during their hot start was their defense but that strong defense seems to have gone out the window lately as the Hawks have given up an average of 111 in their last four games, three ... read more
Doc's Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Doc's Sports
College Football
Northern Illinois Huskies @ Kent State Golden Flashes Tuesday November 18, 2008 7:00 pm
3 Unit Play. #102 Take Kent over Northern Illinois (Tuesday 7:00 pm) The Golden Flashes have shown some signs off life recently winning two of their last three including a dominating road victory in Oxford. They have put up big point totals over the last three weeks averaging ... read more
Doc's Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Doc's Sports
NFL Football
Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills Monday November 17, 2008 8:35 pm
3 Unit Play. #128 Take Buffalo Bills over Cleveland Browns (Monday 8:15 pm ESPN) The Browns players are speaking out and saying some players quit and that does not bode well for Coach Crennel is on his way out. Granted Brady Quinn did play well in his first appearance as ... read more
Doc's Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Doc's Sports
NHL Hockey
San Jose Sharks @ Nashville Predators Monday November 17, 2008 8:05 pm
3 Unit Play. #10 Take Over in San Jose @ Nashville (8:05 pm NHL Center Ice) The Sharks went over the posted tonight by themselves last night in Chicago and are in the top three for goals scored in the NHL. The last four games they have played have all went over the number for ... read more
Doc's Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Doc's Sports
College Basketball
Missouri State Bears @ Central Michigan Chippewas Monday November 17, 2008 7:00 pm
3 Unit Play. #518 Take Central Michigan over Missouri State (7:00 pm) Rose Arena is the sight of this mid-major match-up between the Bears and Chippewas. The Bears have a new coach in Cuonzo Martin and it will take some time to adjust to his new style of offense. This team was ... read more
Doc's Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Doc's Sports