Does Overtime Affect a Team’s Next Game?

by: Jim Kruger

Every handicapper has their own style, their own methodology in handicapping games. I look at each sport using different variations to my style. In one sport I might have a stronger emphasis on fundamentals or statistics. In another sport, perhaps a teams’ specific angles or trends carries the most weight. College football has different quirks than the NFL does. There is no way I can handicap the NBA in the same manner as I do college basketball. Baseball is a different animal all together.

One aspect I use in every sport is situational handicapping. This can be on a macro level looking at data in very general terms to all the way to drilling down on a specific key player. Normally, I will start with a basic situation and refine it hoping to find the spot with the highest winning percentage. You always need a large enough sample size for the situation to have credibility in my mind, but finding a situational trend early can be very profitable.

Let’s start with a very basic situation and look at teams in college football non-bowl games where their previous game went into overtime. Since the 2000 season, teams off of an overtime game covered against the spread 47.6% of the time in their next game. I am not yet using any other qualifiers or filters, just a very basic database query.

Taking it to the next step, let’s look at how those teams did in their previous game. If the team won their previous overtime game, they don’t do quite as well as if they had lost it covering 44.8% versus 50.3% of the time respectively.

Now, let’s take those winners in overtime last week and see if where they are playing makes any difference. If those teams are now playing at home their cover rate is 52.3% versus a poor 36% if they are now the visiting team. That is quite a large difference.

Let’s see if we can drill down even more to discover even a larger advantage for us. In looking at those visiting teams off of a win in OT, if their previous game was played at home and they are still home, they cover at a 52.6% rate. That obviously is not a large enough edge for us to put our hard-earned money on. But, if that team that won in OT at home is now on the road, they only get the ATS win 31.5% of the time!

When looking at situations I always like to see if they are logical, if they make sense. This one definitely does. It is very understandable that a team that won last week at home in a hard-fought overtime game would be due for a letdown going out on the road. The ATS results prove this to be correct.

How about one last tweak to our overtime situation? Making the game a conference game slightly reduces the historical ATS rate to 29.3% for those road teams off of an overtime win at home.

This is one of the angles I used in my Gold 5 Star winner last week on BYU over Air Force. And, guess what, it shows up again in two weeks with a play on Duke over Wake Forest.

This does not mean I am automatically betting on Duke, I still need to look at the myriad of other factors that I use but one thing I can definitely say is I am not betting on Wake Forest over Duke!

Jim Kruger Past Articles

Don't Make Assumptions!
In last week's article I looked for teams that were out of a normal routine, having a change in their pattern. The results were very good as the two teams ... read more

Changing a Team's Routine
This week I haven’t yet found a juicy 90% angle like I wrote about last week with our spread winner on UNLV over BYU. But, I do believe I have found ... read more

Who Covers? Losing or Winning Teams?
Last week we looked at teams who were on a winning streak and still undefeated. The three different trends we highlighted finished 3-2 against the spread ... read more

Are Undefeated College Teams Overvalued?
”The Upset Special” was the favorite menu item this past week at the College Football Diner as three of the top five teams and seven of the ... read more

Does Overtime Affect a Team’s Next Game?
Every handicapper has their own style, their own methodology in handicapping games. I look at each sport using different variations to my style. In one ... read more

All Jim Kruger Past Articles

Jim Kruger Recent Past Picks

NFL Football

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Denver Broncos Sunday October 12, 2008 4:05 pm
Take Jacksonville over Denver Jacksonville has been underachieving this year, at least by public expectations.  The Jags have a 2-3 record and were outplayed last week worse than the score against Pittsburgh shows, 21 to 26.  The Jags only had half as many of the Steelers ... read more

Jim Kruger Bio and Picks | Articles By Jim Kruger

NFL Football

Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts Sunday October 12, 2008 1:00 pm
Take Baltimore over Indianapolis Two .500 teams battle it out.  The fact that Indy is at that level is close to a miracle.  Last week their comeback against Houston was amazing.  And don’t forget their lucky win at Minnesota.  In Week 3.  The Ravens ... read more

Jim Kruger Bio and Picks | Articles By Jim Kruger

NFL Football

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sunday October 12, 2008 1:00 pm
Take Tampa Bay over Carolina Carolina has to be feeling pretty good winning their last two games by a combined 58 to 9 tally.  However, it should be noted their opponents in those two games were KC and Atlanta and the Panthers were playing at home.  The Panthers are ... read more

Jim Kruger Bio and Picks | Articles By Jim Kruger

College Football

Air Force Falcons @ San Diego State Aztecs Saturday October 11, 2008 9:30 pm
Take Air Force over San Diego State   The Aztecs just seem to be getting worse every week.  The reason for this is SDS is missing seven starters due to injury.  They are going with a converted defensive tackle and a tight end at the offensive tackle spots and ... read more

Jim Kruger Bio and Picks | Articles By Jim Kruger

College Football

Boise State Broncos @ So Mississippi Saturday October 11, 2008 8:00 pm
Southern Mississippi over Boise State Boise is very good once again.  However, this time they aren’t playing on the home blue turf.  They beat Oregon two weeks ago with the Ducks decimated at quarterback.  The Broncos have a huge revenge game in six days ... read more

Jim Kruger Bio and Picks | Articles By Jim Kruger

College Football

Iowa State Cyclones @ Baylor Bears Saturday October 11, 2008 7:00 pm
Take Baylor over Iowa State   Iowa State is coming off of a huge letdown game.  They were ahead of top 20 Kansas 20-0 at halftime, literally shutting them down.  This is the same ISU squad that was down to UNLV 21-0 at halftime.  ISU ended up losing a very ... read more

Jim Kruger Bio and Picks | Articles By Jim Kruger

College Football

UL Monroe Indians @ Arkansas State Indians Saturday October 11, 2008 7:00 pm
Take Arkansas State over Louisiana-Monroe ULM has been inconsistent offensively and struggled with third-down conversions (16-of-69).  In their loss to in-state rival, Louisiana Lafayette last week, ULM allowed 728 yards, including more than 550 on the ground.  Arky ... read more

Jim Kruger Bio and Picks | Articles By Jim Kruger

College Football

Vanderbilt Commodores @ Mississippi State Bulldogs Saturday October 11, 2008 2:30 pm
Take Mississippi State over Vanderbilt Life is good in Nashville!  Vanderbilt had Lee Corso and the gang visit last week and the Commodores beat Auburn thanks to a missed extra point.  The ‘Dores are 5-0 and in the Top 15!  Vandy has 16 sacks and 11 INT's ... read more

Jim Kruger Bio and Picks | Articles By Jim Kruger

NFL Football

Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints Monday October 6, 2008 8:35 pm
This week’s Monday Night Football has two teams not living up to expectations.  Minny is 1-3 and desperate for a win while New Orleans is 2-2 but has had multiple injuries. Minnesota needs to be effective passing or New Orleans will stack up the middle to stop Adrian ... read more

Jim Kruger Bio and Picks | Articles By Jim Kruger

NFL Football

New England Patriots @ San Francisco 49ers Sunday October 5, 2008 4:15 pm
Take New England over San Francisco – Bronze 3* New England has had two weeks to think about being pounded by the Miami Dolphins, 38-13.  The Pats head coach, Bill Belichick, is 9-0 SU and ATS his last nine road games following a loss.  San Francisco is off ... read more

Jim Kruger Bio and Picks | Articles By Jim Kruger

All Jim Kruger Past Picks