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Debunking a Long Held NBA Theory
by: Mr East
There is a long standing theory in the NBA, that says to play against teams that are playing in back to back nights, and another that says to play against teams playing in their 4th game in 5 nights, something which doesn't occur frequently, but does pop up from time to time. The theory being that the tam will wear down late in the game and lose the game and cover. I took a look at what has happened in the NBA in relation to this theory this season, and the results may surprise you.
The Eastern Conference has played to a 115-101-3 ATS mark when playing the second game in consecutive nights. That is 53.2% ATS, which actually is slightly profitable playing on them! The Western Conference has played to a 104-110-2 ATS mark, or 48.6%, so slightly profitable playing against them. The total for both would be 219-211-5 ATS or 50.9%, which means the theory has busted with 430 games of proff to back it up.
The one thing gamblers look for is a "comfortable" edge as opposed to a true edge. What I mean is, you look through the games, notice a game you might be taking a liking to, and then see the opponent is playing for the 2nd straight night, and it puts you over the top on the team you liked. That is what I call a "comfortable edge, but not one condusive to winning money. The real edge comes from finding meaningful game situations, that are born out by results.
I also looked at the teams in the 2nd game in 2 nights based on age. The theory being older teams would have far more problems than the younger teams. I didn't break it down by roster, but I broke it down by stars. The top 3 scorers from each team, and their combined average age. The 6 youngest trio of stars combined to go 38-42-2 and the 6 oldest trio of stars combined to go 36-43. The result is age doesn't matter, it is simply a system that has no founded merit, and utilizing it as a capping tool, certainly has not resulted in anything that would produce results better than flipping a coin
EAST
Mr East Past Articles
Sleepless in Denver?
A lot is made of teams playing with no rest in the NBA. The question is does it matter? Here is my latest research and findings on NBA teams playing with ... read more
March Madness: Good, Bad and the Ugly
The NCAA Tournament is right around the corner. I thought i'd take a look at who has the bet winning percentage of all time in NCAA Tournament games. ... read more
Weekly Look at CFB Title Chasers
BCS Title Chasers - We are down to five unbeaten teams in NCAAF, and 12 teams with a single loss. The Oregon Ducks are the new #1 team in the latest BCS ... read more
Lay of the Line NFL Week 7
Another winning footabl week is now in the books, as both NCAAF and NFL football were winners for the week. We now turn to NCAAF week 8, and NFL week ... read more
Good and Bad Septembers, Does it Matter?
The Major League baseball Playoffs get started on Wednesday, so I thought I'd get you tuned in, to avoid the "trap" thinking that sends many ... read more
Mr East Past Picks
NBA Basketball
Los Angeles Lakers @ Oklahoma City Thunder Monday May 14, 2012 9:35 pm
This game fis a round 2 situation which is 54-23 ATS, play on Oklahoma City ... read more
MLB Baseball
Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies Monday May 14, 2012 7:05 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, ... read more
NBA Basketball
Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics Monday May 14, 2012 7:05 pm
This game fits a 17-5 ATS game 2 round 2 series situation and the play is on Boston ... read more
NBA Basketball
Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics Monday May 14, 2012 7:05 pm
This game fits a second round playoff total situation which is 20-2 ATS, and the play is on the over. ... read more
NBA Basketball
Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat Sunday May 13, 2012 3:35 pm
This game fits a huge playoff situation which is 54-23 ATS and also qualifies for a subset which is 14-2 ATS, the play on team is Miami ... read more
MLB Baseball
Atlanta Braves @ St. Louis Cardinals Sunday May 13, 2012 2:15 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, ... read more
MLB Baseball
Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers Sunday May 13, 2012 2:10 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
MLB Baseball
Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox Sunday May 13, 2012 2:10 pm
: I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, ... read more
MLB Baseball
Washington Nationals @ Cincinnati Reds Sunday May 13, 2012 1:10 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, ... read more
MLB Baseball
New York Mets @ Miami Marlins Sunday May 13, 2012 1:10 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, ... read more
