2007 College Football Conference Tendencies

by: Jim Kruger

One thing I like to do is to look for any tendencies that occur in a conference. Sometimes finding one or two can help line your pockets with cash throughout the season.

However, tendencies can change from year to year. But, if you can find one that lasts for a couple of seasons, it is well worth the effort.

Back in 2000, there were a number of double-digit home dogs in Big 12 games. I started tracking how they did to see if perhaps the linesmakers were assigning too much value to the top-tier Big 12 teams or if there was that big of a difference between the top-tier and bottom conference teams.

That year home dogs in the Big 12 went 10-14 against the spread. Nothing earth shattering but a trend that looked very good when the pups in their own house were just 6-14 before closing the final three weeks of the season on a four-game winning streak.

It was a good trend over the next three years to play against Big 12 home dogs as they only put up a 24-44 ATS record. A three trend which covered almost 65% of the time is one I like to find!

All good things eventually come to an end, which this trend did with conviction in 2004. Big 12 home dogs went an amazing 15-3 ATS that year! Oklahoma was the biggest contributor to that stellar record as they were 0-4 as road favorites. The following year wasn’t as bad, but the home dogs still went 11-8 ATS.

Some conferences have a larger gap between the top and bottom rung teams. The MAC is such an animal. In a conference game, if a MAC team won their previous game on the road and are now playing at home and are favored by more than a touchdown but less than three touchdowns, that team is 22-7 ATS since 1990.

Incidentally, these trends were found using www.sportsdatabase.com, a site I have used for many years and strongly recommend.

Sometimes trends surprise me. I always hear how great of a home field advantage there is in the Southeastern Conference. Over the past three years, SEC home teams have covered only a shade better than 44% of their home games. In that time span, only three SEC teams even show a winning home record against the number.

Let’s drill down a little further and look at small home dogs of less than three points in the SEC. How about this record: only four winning seasons over the past 27 years for these small pups.

Most of these trends I use as guidelines. I may not blindly follow the trend, but there will have to be some very solid reasons why I go against a trend. I don’t only rely on trends for handicapping college football games, but it is a tool that I do use.

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