2007 College Football Conference Tendencies
by: Jim Kruger
One thing I like to do is to look for any tendencies that occur in a conference. Sometimes finding one or two can help line your pockets with cash throughout the season.
However, tendencies can change from year to year. But, if you can find one that lasts for a couple of seasons, it is well worth the effort.
Back in 2000, there were a number of double-digit home dogs in Big 12 games. I started tracking how they did to see if perhaps the linesmakers were assigning too much value to the top-tier Big 12 teams or if there was that big of a difference between the top-tier and bottom conference teams.
That year home dogs in the Big 12 went 10-14 against the spread. Nothing earth shattering but a trend that looked very good when the pups in their own house were just 6-14 before closing the final three weeks of the season on a four-game winning streak.
It was a good trend over the next three years to play against Big 12 home dogs as they only put up a 24-44 ATS record. A three trend which covered almost 65% of the time is one I like to find!
All good things eventually come to an end, which this trend did with conviction in 2004. Big 12 home dogs went an amazing 15-3 ATS that year! Oklahoma was the biggest contributor to that stellar record as they were 0-4 as road favorites. The following year wasn’t as bad, but the home dogs still went 11-8 ATS.
Some conferences have a larger gap between the top and bottom rung teams. The MAC is such an animal. In a conference game, if a MAC team won their previous game on the road and are now playing at home and are favored by more than a touchdown but less than three touchdowns, that team is 22-7 ATS since 1990.
Incidentally, these trends were found using www.sportsdatabase.com, a site I have used for many years and strongly recommend.
Sometimes trends surprise me. I always hear how great of a home field advantage there is in the Southeastern Conference. Over the past three years, SEC home teams have covered only a shade better than 44% of their home games. In that time span, only three SEC teams even show a winning home record against the number.
Let’s drill down a little further and look at small home dogs of less than three points in the SEC. How about this record: only four winning seasons over the past 27 years for these small pups.
Most of these trends I use as guidelines. I may not blindly follow the trend, but there will have to be some very solid reasons why I go against a trend. I don’t only rely on trends for handicapping college football games, but it is a tool that I do use.
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Jim Kruger Past Picks
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Utah Jazz @ Sacramento Kings Saturday February 9, 2013 10:05 pm
Sacramento has not played at home for two weeks. They did have four days off from their last game, an overtime loss in Utah which saw the King’s DeMarcus Cousins get ejected before playing 20 minutes. In two other games versus the Jazz this season, the Kings lost ... read more
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Charlotte Bobcats @ Philadelphia 76ers Saturday February 9, 2013 8:05 pm
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Los Angeles Lakers @ Boston Celtics Thursday February 7, 2013 8:05 pm
TOTALS #501 LA Lakers-Boston UNDER There are some good match ups that favor the UNDER tonight. The Lakers’ two most common plays are a spot-up jumper, 21.5% of their shots, and post-up plays, 13.3%. Boston ranks third in the league in defending spot-up jumpers on a points-per-possession ... read more
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Boston Celtics @ Toronto Raptors Wednesday February 6, 2013 7:05 pm
Take Toronto over BostonIt might be surprising to see theRaptors favored. But, Toronto has been showing signs of improvement for the past several weeks, especially at home. They probably will have Andrea Bargnani back tonight, but that is not why I am playing the Raptors. While Boston ... read more
NBA Basketball
Los Angeles Clippers @ Orlando Magic Wednesday February 6, 2013 7:05 pm
Take LA Clippers - Orlando Magic UNDER Orlando will be missing two of their top offensive weapons tonight, Arron Afflalo and J.J. Redick, due to injuries. Point guard Jameer Nelson is a game-time decision. They lost Glen Davis on January 30th and he will miss an extended ... read more
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Baltimore Ravens @ San Francisco 49ers Sunday February 3, 2013 6:30 pm
Take #102 San Francisco -3.5 over Baltimore Everybody has an opinion on the Super Bowl as it is the most analyzed, most discussed game in any sport in the U.S. every year. Everybody knows everything there is to know about both teams. Every angle, from the smallest to ... read more
NBA Basketball
Utah Jazz @ Portland Trailblazers Saturday February 2, 2013 10:05 pm
Take Utah-Portland UNDER 192 These teams met last night in Utah with the Jazz winning, 86-77. This sets up a classic divisional rematch with zero rest for both teams that is a 65.2% UNDER over the past 10 seasons when the home team is favored. A nice 5-year trend where ... read more
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Chicago Bulls @ Atlanta Hawks Saturday February 2, 2013 7:05 pm
Take Atlanta over Chicago Revenge has its moments in the NBA. This should be one of those moments. In their last match on January 14th, Atlanta suffered one of the worst defeats you could imagine, 97-58. Chicago held the Hawks to 5 points in the second quarter ... read more
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San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons Sunday January 20, 2013 3:00 pm
Take San Francisco over AtlantaThis line has ticked up to -4.5 at 5Dimes.com and a few books in Vegas. I'll have a normal write-up later but a couple of key items are San Francisco has an extra day of rest and prep time over Atlanta and the game does not start in Atlanta until ... read more
