College Football 2009 Prop Bet of the Year

by: Wunderdog Sports

Ready for the College Football Prop Bet of the year?

Did I get your attention? I hope so.

Those of you who have been with me for any significant portion of the past eight years know that I am not prone to splashy statements or heavy “touting.” I have never once released a “lock” and in fact, I often preach the opposite. Any bet can lose.

That being said, I have a prop bet that I really love for this upcoming 2009 College Football season. Am I recommending that you go crazy and overbet your bankroll on it? No way! Remember, anything can happen. But, when we find value, we need to pounce. So, keep sound money management in mind when betting this. But, by all means, get down on it.

Clemson Tigers UNDER 8 wins (+115)
(available at Diamond Sports or Bookmaker)

The oddsmakers have predicted that the Tigers will win eight games this season. They actually are telling us that nine is more likely than seven as well as they have put the OVER at -145 and the UNDER at +115. Some sportsbooks have them listed at OVER 8.5 +105 and UNDER 8.5 -135. I disagree with their assessment. With all due respect to Tigers fans (I have nothing against Clemson whatsoever), I give the Tigers a very small chance at reaching nine wins (what would be required to lose this bet, regardless of which line you take).

Again, those who know me know I don’t make recommendations based on gut feel. I use the math. When I make a big play, it’s backed by statistics that tell us we have a very high chance of winning. We’ll get into those numbers shortly. But first, a little about Clemson this year vs. last…

2009 vs. 2008 - Better or worse?
Clemson started the 2008 season ranked #9 in the country. They went on to finish 7-6 last season and lost in the Gator Bowl to Nebraska. They lost their head coach (Tommy Bowden) mid-way through the season and stuck the “interim” tag on new HC Dabo Swinney. Swinney was able to find a way into a bowl game and he was rewarded with the job for good as a result. So can the Tigers under Swinney go from 7 wins to 9+ wins? Do we have reason to believe they will be better than 2008 or worse? The oddsmakers think better. I think that’s a huge stretch.

Offense - Top players gone and QB is a major concern
In 2008, this team was ranked 76 out of 120 teams last year in scoring offense. They ranked 97th in rushing yards. Their passing game was better (ranked 57th) but QB Cullen Harper is gone. In addition to losing their quarterback, the team lost their top running back (James Davis) and their top wide receiver (Aaron Kelly). They do get CJ Spiller back and he provides hope on offense as he rushed for 5.4 yards per carry and seven touchdowns last season. But, this team converted just 29.8% of third-down tries last season and they need to improve that despite sticking a new, completely inexperienced QB under center. The situation is bad. As of late July, they still have yet to decide between last year’s backup Willy Korn, who threw all of 38 passes last season, and Kyle Parker, a redshirt freshman. Whoever lines up as the signal caller must play behind a suspect offensive line that really struggled last year.

Quarterback is the most important position in football. The fact that this team still hasn’t decided means that whichever inexperienced QB gets the call, will not have had much dedicated time with the #1 offense. Heck, Parker was still playing baseball just a month ago. Expecting a team without a quarterback at this point to win nine games is simply asking too much.

Defense - Solid in 2008 but underperforming overall - 2009 unknown
The Clemson defense was very good last season, ranked 17th in points per game allowed. But, their Achilles heel was a low-pressure defense that could not get any pressure on opposing QBs last season. Despite big name players in Ricky Sapp, Da’QUan Bowers and Kevin Alexander, the Tigers finished last in the ACC in sacks last season. Will these “big potential” guys produce in 2009? It’s unknown. If they are to get to 9+ wins, their defense will be the reason. But, I tend to trust actual results in college (see 2008 under-performing expectations) more than than “potential” based on high-school play.

Schedule - Not a lot of help here
Their schedule isn’t particularly easy nor difficult. Sure, games against Middle Tennessee and Coastal Carolina should be cakewalks. But, this team also must face Boston College, TCU, Wake Forest, Miami, Florida State and South Carolina (all very good or excellent teams). If the Tigers are to win 9+ games, they aren’t going to get much help from their schedule this season.

What’s most important - The Math
So we have some anecdotal evidence to suggest that it might be hard for Clemson to reach nine wins. But that’s never enough to risk good money on. We need some data that gives us a high confidence that this is likely to happen.

History often repeats itself. Do we have any relevant history that can guide us here? Yes we do and it’s based on data regarding teams that have a lot of upheaval in important positions. In this case, upheaval means a change in both head coach and quarterback.

Think about it, how important are these two things?

A change in head coach means major changes for players who have to adjust to a new way of doing things and often a new playbook. Sweeney is new as is his staff. Granted, they are not brand-new as they coached this team for the second half of last season. But, a half-season does not build stability. And, you can believe that Sweeny didn’t make a lot of wholesale changes last season when he was thrust into this role without notice. Instead, he likely decided to wait until the offseason to implement major changes that he desires. So, this year the team will be doing things differently as Sweeney for the first time gets to put his stamp on things. And, with change always comes disruption which usually equates to fewer wins in the short term. I am not knocking Sweeny specifically. I am just saying that change doesn’t happen overnight, nor without pain. Even if he’s the right man for the job (to be determined), it will take a while for players to get used to his approach and playbook and in the meantime, expect some turmoil.

A change in quarterback is equally disturbing for a team. This is the most important position on the field. A great quarterback can make a mediocre team a national championship contender. A bad quarterback can make a good team average. Experience matters. Again, no knocks on Parker or Korn specifically (both were highly touted coming out of high school). But, how good can they really be in their first real season? How much rhythm can they have with receivers? How much command of the team and huddle can these young men really have? Changing quarterback means disruption - in a bad way.

Now, combine these two forces and we have a really strong reason to believe that a team is going to under-perform, especially if that team is coming off a winning season. And the numbers back us up. Since the 2002 season, there have been 38 teams that changed both their quarterback and head coach following a winning season. These teams had a combined record of 114-51 (69%) before making the changes. How did they perform the following season? They combined for a 87-77 (53%) mark. That’s an absolute dropoff of 16% and a relative dropoff of 23%! Only 12 of the 38 teams (that won at a 69% clip the year prior) were able to muster a winning season at all! So that means 68% of these teams had a record under .500 the year after making these two big changes at the same time.

Yet, Clemson is supposed to go 9-3 (75%) this season? I’m not buying it.

I like Clemson UNDER 8 wins at +115 odds (available at Diamond Sports or Bookmaker) or UNDER 8.5 at -135 odds.

The Wunderdog

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