Changing a Team's Routine

by: Jim Kruger

This week I haven’t yet found a juicy 90% angle like I wrote about last week with our spread winner on UNLV over BYU. But, I do believe I have found some angles which are worth looking at.

In handicapping sports, I try to look for situations where teams have gotten used to experiencing a certain normalcy, a routine, and now have a change in this pattern. This could be a string of home games and now the team is on the road or a team that has just experienced a loss after a number of wins. I look at historical results for these types of situations and see what patterns have happened in the past and are there any current or future games that fall into these tendencies.

Does the team who is used to “homecooking” do much worse when they go on the road? Let’s just hypothesize that teams only cover the spread 42% of the time after three or more home games and now are playing a game away from home. While this is a very high-level example, shouldn’t one take this general edge into consideration and perhaps be more careful before backing such a team? I believe so. The sports bettor who does not take this into consideration in my opinion is not using a full tool set to pick winners. However, everybody has their own way of doing things and the final results are all that really matter.

An example of a change from what a team is used to is when they have been a favorite three games in a row and now are a home dog. The team has gotten used to being the expected winner and now is in a different role as the expected loser. And, they are at home, even a bigger insult! If you are a three-point home dog or more you obviously have risen to the occasion enough to cover the spread 70% of the time over the past five years going 28-12 ATS. Scarlet Knight backers should be aware that their team, Rutgers, falls into this historically winning ticket position in their upcoming game against South Florida.

How about a situation that is longer term than just being favored over the past three games.
Let’s look at a team that last year tasted great success and won at least eleven games. Again, the team is probably used to being favored in just about every one of their games, even those on the road. They obviously have developed a certain chip on their shoulder which would carry over to the next year. Let’s examine the same situation where they are an underdog and the game is being played on their own home turf. This team with the winning pedigree from the previous year covers at an 80% rate, albeit we had to go back ten years to get a large enough sample to consider. And, once again, Rutgers falls into this trend.

One final attractive trend that shows up when there is a change in a teams’ recent routine. When a team has played a conference team the previous three games and now goes on the road as a dog playing a non-conference team that lost their last game, they are a dismal 9-21 against the spread. This is a money-draining 30% coverage rate. We happen to have this situation occurring this week. Buffalo falls into this losing angle when they visit Syracuse this week.

Good luck this week!

Jim Kruger

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In last week's article I looked for teams that were out of a normal routine, having a change in their pattern. The results were very good as the two teams ... read more

Changing a Team's Routine
This week I haven’t yet found a juicy 90% angle like I wrote about last week with our spread winner on UNLV over BYU. But, I do believe I have found ... read more

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