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Can Derek Jeter surpass Pete Rose?
by: Mr East
Derek Jeter has been in the news as he is just a couple of weeks away from being the all-time Yankee career hit leader, something he will accomplish when he passes Lou Gehrig. It is amazing that of all the Yankee Hall of Famers, that not a single one ever amassed 3,000 hits as a Yankee, and Derek Jeter, barring unforseen circumstances will become the first sometime in 2011, at the age of 37.
So then what? Can Jeter continue on and become baseball's all-time hit leader? It is obviously a lot of speculation at this point, and a lot of that lies on how long he desires to continue to play, but he is dedicated, passionate, and loves the game, so if we go off the assumption he continues on here are what the numbers look like and you decide.
At the age of 35, when Pete Rose completed his 14th full season, he finished that year with 2,762 career hits. Derek Jeter, as we approach the end of August, at the same age of 35, currently has 2,705 hits, and should approach the 2,762 achieved by Rose by year's end. He is currently 1,551 hits shy of what Rose finished his career with, and by season's end he should need about 1,500 hits. Rose went on to play a total of 24 seasons, so it took him his final 10 years to achieve his last 1,500 or so hits. Rose did not begin to decline, until reaching the age of 40, as he garnered 795 hits from the age of 36 to 39 in 4 seasons. It then took him 6 years to get his remaining 806 hits to surpass Ty Cobb's previous high of 4,191.
So what would it take for Jeter to gather the remaining 1,500 hits or so? First, he obviously would have to stick around the game a longtime, which at this point noone knows if he will still be healthy, still have the desire, and when will his skills deminish. At 35, he is putting together one of his best seasons ever, as he will likely top the 200 hit mark for the 7th time in his career, something Rose accomplished 10 times, and twice after the age of 35. jeter has a career batting average of .317, but at the age where many would believe he is past his prime, his last 4 seasons have seen his average stand at .324, so he is actually playing offensively at a higher level than he previously had.
jeter is a well conditioned athlete, and a lot of these questions, are contingent on if he even has the desire to stick around the game that long, and just how much his skills erode. The next 5 years will really be important if he plays 5 more, which noone even knows, but if he achieves in the next 5 years, what he has in the last 5, and puts up 1,000 or so hits, he certainly will be more than in striking range.
From this vantage point, too many things can happen, either injury, eroded skills, lack of desire to continue his career well into his 40s, would say the liklihood of him surpassing Rose is very slim. There is a but however, and that is the fact that if he continues for 5 years without any erosion of his current skills, which many well conditioned athletes today can pull off, he certainly will put himself in the position, where the catch is a very realistic possibility if he decides to hang around.
EAST
Mr East Past Articles
Sleepless in Denver?
A lot is made of teams playing with no rest in the NBA. The question is does it matter? Here is my latest research and findings on NBA teams playing with ... read more
March Madness: Good, Bad and the Ugly
The NCAA Tournament is right around the corner. I thought i'd take a look at who has the bet winning percentage of all time in NCAA Tournament games. ... read more
Weekly Look at CFB Title Chasers
BCS Title Chasers - We are down to five unbeaten teams in NCAAF, and 12 teams with a single loss. The Oregon Ducks are the new #1 team in the latest BCS ... read more
Lay of the Line NFL Week 7
Another winning footabl week is now in the books, as both NCAAF and NFL football were winners for the week. We now turn to NCAAF week 8, and NFL week ... read more
Good and Bad Septembers, Does it Matter?
The Major League baseball Playoffs get started on Wednesday, so I thought I'd get you tuned in, to avoid the "trap" thinking that sends many ... read more
Mr East Past Picks
NBA Basketball
Los Angeles Lakers @ Oklahoma City Thunder Monday May 14, 2012 9:35 pm
This game fis a round 2 situation which is 54-23 ATS, play on Oklahoma City ... read more
MLB Baseball
Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies Monday May 14, 2012 7:05 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, ... read more
NBA Basketball
Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics Monday May 14, 2012 7:05 pm
This game fits a 17-5 ATS game 2 round 2 series situation and the play is on Boston ... read more
NBA Basketball
Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics Monday May 14, 2012 7:05 pm
This game fits a second round playoff total situation which is 20-2 ATS, and the play is on the over. ... read more
NBA Basketball
Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat Sunday May 13, 2012 3:35 pm
This game fits a huge playoff situation which is 54-23 ATS and also qualifies for a subset which is 14-2 ATS, the play on team is Miami ... read more
MLB Baseball
Atlanta Braves @ St. Louis Cardinals Sunday May 13, 2012 2:15 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, ... read more
MLB Baseball
Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers Sunday May 13, 2012 2:10 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, and ... read more
MLB Baseball
Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox Sunday May 13, 2012 2:10 pm
: I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, ... read more
MLB Baseball
Washington Nationals @ Cincinnati Reds Sunday May 13, 2012 1:10 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, ... read more
MLB Baseball
New York Mets @ Miami Marlins Sunday May 13, 2012 1:10 pm
I have had a ton of success playing in MLB early in the season, April and May, as well as Interleague play, and September. I have done a ton of research that has proven to be a formula for success, and all my MLB games that I offer here are based on this research, past success, ... read more
