MLB Shocker of the Month - Thursday! (Thu 7:10PM)
With games going every day, oddsmakers can't keep up with every change on the baseball diamond, such as injuries, bullpen overuse, road travel and emotional factors. They REALLY blew it on Thursday, making a dog of a team that should be favored. Go inside the stats and collect with Jim's Baseball Shocker of the Month before the oddsmakers wake up!

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Jim Feist's NBA Playoff Total Powerhouse - Wednesd (Wed 9:35PM)
Totals offer just as much value as sides, many times even more so, and what better way to build your bankroll than with a basketball TV total winner from Jim Feist! This is a terrible total that oddsmakers misjudged. Grab this NBA PLAYOFF "Total" POWERHOUSE and play with the Las Vegas big boys WEDNESDAY!

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10-4 on Totals: Hi Roller NBA Playoff Total Power! (Thu 9:35PM)
Jim Feist is 10-4 with NBA playoff totals, including the Pacers/Heat Game 1 under on Sunday! Totals offer just as much value as sides, many times even more so, and what better way to build your bankroll than with a High Roller basketball total winner from Jim Feist! This is a terrible total that oddsmakers misjudged. Grab this High Roller NBA PLAYOFF "Total" POWERHOUSE and play with the Las Vegas big boys Thursday!

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Break Down Your Pitchers

by: Jim Feist

by Jim Feist

Starting pitching is one aspect of handicapping baseball, and it is important to carefully dissect the starters for each game. After all, betting lines are set based roughly 90% on the starting pitchers. If Boston lefty Jon Lester is facing Toronto ace Roy Halladay, for example, you need to ask questions: Where is the game being played? How is each starter against lefty and right batters? What is the history of each pitcher against that opponent? What is the history of the pitcher in that stadium?
You will find statistics often very revealing, and different.

For instance, as dominant a pitcher as Halladay is, he is just 12-12 with a 4.46 ERA against the Red Sox. In that example, it is not that Boston has his number, it's more likely that Halladay is more mortal against them as they have had one of the top offenses in the game the last six years. However, there are times when a good pitcher can struggle against bad offenses and a bad pitcher can have surprisingly great success against good ones.

In the above example, Lester is 3-2 with a 3.25 ERA against Toronto, including a 2-0 mark this season with a 1.46 ERA. Breaking down stats like this begins to paint a different picture of a game than when you first looked at it.

Other time, a pitcher can be far more comfortable at home than on the road and the proof is in the numbers. Look at Brian Bannister of the Royals: A winning record at home with a strong ERA, but far more hittable on the road (with a losing record). John Lannan of the Nationals is another stark example, with a 3-1 record at home and a terrific 2.25 ERA, but 3-6 on the road with an ERA over 5. Big differences!  Right away those two facets of info shows us that Lannan might be worth a look to back at home, but fade on the road. (Follow Jim Feist on Twitter, https://twitter.com/JimFeistSports).

Some pitchers even perform better on the road, either because the pressure is off not needing to impress the home fans, or because they throw in a home run park at home. Kelvim Escobar is still on the DL shelf, but for years he has been a pitcher better on the road than at home. I recall a three year stretch where Escobar was 14-19 at home where opponents hit .269 off him. Yet, on the road he was 18-8 as opponents hit .238! For whatever reason, the stats are revealing, showing that the guy was lights out on the road, but shaky in front of the home fans.

Also, examine how a starter has thrown in his career against the team he is now facing. Some pitchers own certain teams, while others can struggle. If it is a large enough sample, it can not be ignored. Sometimes there are tangible reasons for this, other times it is less clear, but breaking down pitching stats is an important guide.

A famous World Series example was Dodger great Don Newcombe, who had a terrific fastball that helped him have seasons of 17, 19, 20, 20 and 27 wins. He was the first Cy Young winner, but never won a World Series game, 0-4 with an 8.59 ERA. Why? “The Yankees were a great fastball hitting team,” Newcombe once said. "They had my number." It’s essential to examine stats, players and situations very carefully.

Finally, remember that pitchers do not always pitch the same from year to year. More than any other player in a game, pitchers are more likely to break down from injuries or age. If a guy is 10-2 in his career against one team, but is currently age 36 with a 1-9 record and a 6.89 ERA, that 10-2 career mark looks far less significant. So dig deep, think carefully, and know your stats and starting pitchers!

Jim Feist Past Articles

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Tourney Matchup Tips
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