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Beware Of The Public Come Tournament Time

by: Mr East

Lots of people like to fade the public during all sports, and all seasons, and rightfully so, as the public is generally considered square, and not in the know, or at least knowing less than enough to break even in sports wagering. 

What most don't realize is the public does very well in the first round of the tournament, and there is a reason for this. The public loves favorites, and if you listen to the stuffed suits preach on your favorite network, and all the hoopla surrounding brackets, and the Cinderella talk, you'll walk down the wrong path for sure. Make no mistake about it, this is a favorites tournament, and that's why the public wins! 

PROOF THAT IT IS A FAVORITES TOURNAMENT:

I guess it all starts with what is classified as an upset? I would say that would mean a game where there is at least a 3 seed differential between the competing teams. I don't think an 8 vs 9 seed would be classified as an upset, nor a 4 vs 5. If you saw my earlier post, there really isn't much difference between a 5 seed, and a 12 seed or all others inbetween, as the scoring margins are inside of 5ppg. A big deal is made when a 5 seed upsets a 12 seed, but the fact is just take a look at this years 5 vs 12 games, the average line is 3.7 points, and 1 #12 seed is actually favore! If someone wins during the regular season as a 3 or 4 point underdog, you don't hear a word about it, because it is not even considered an upset! When it is NCAA Tournament time, these stuffed suits predict these big upsets, and they are in the grand scheme of things trivial. So it seems like requiring a 3 seed difference is fair to be classified as an upset, in many cases even a 7 seed difference isn't much of an upset. Did you know that even with a 3 seed differential required to be classified as an upset, still 2/3 of all games come from games with at least that big a seed difference.

The last 6 years, with 2/3 of the 390 games played qualifying as a potential upset, or 260 games, only 44 have ended with an upset! That is just 16.9% of all possibilities. The fact is, as I have said before this is a favorite's tournament. The pundits will have you thinking otherwise!

Now, with a favorite's tournament, and that is true, then a favorite betting public should do well right? Yes, they do very well in the over-hyped first round.

PROOF OF THE PUBLIC 1st ROUND DOMINANCE OF THE BOOKS:

I'll just give a sample of some information I keep here, just to make proof positive here. 

THE PUBLIC BETTING IN THE NCAA TOURNAMENT 2006-07 and 2007-08 COMBINED:

PUBLIC WAGERING PERCENTAGE FOLLOWED BY RESULTS ATS:

75%+ 4-3-1
70-74 3-2
65-69 9-3-1
60-64 6-4
-------------------
PUBLIC RESULTS AT 60%+ ON A SIDE: 22-12-2 64.7%

FAVORITE'S TOURNAMENT PUBLIC'S GLORY!!!

NOW the totals spells a different story, for the same reason, it is an unders players tournament, and the public loves to bet overs, so here is where they give it all back.

PUBLIC RESULTS AT 60% ON A TOTAL: 36.8% 

The good Lord giveth, and the good Lord taketh away!

FINAL THOUGHT:

Before blindly fading the public opinion, consider the fact that the public thrives in this arena, when very often they do not!!

Also remember that the stuffed suits will steer you wrong, if you saw my post about last year's comments, on who will upset who, they were wrong on many more counts than they were right. They are experts at nothing when it comes to determining an outcome of a game. NOTHING!

Also remeber this is a favorites tournament, you have to pick spots, and pick them carefully. There are extremely few upsets, that can really be classified as upsets! 

Just remember this, when the average scoring margin in an NCAA Tournament game has been +9.5 or higher, the favored team is 269-19!!! That means they win SU 93.4% of the time! Put that in your brackets, and book it! During the regular season upsets occur at a much higher rate!!!

This is an under tournament, when the public thinks high, take a close look at low, that is where the money is.

I will soon be putting this to the test, as I have teams locked and loaded, and in the first round I will have 10 under plays, that are generated from massive databases, that composite the highest value, and where the money is in this tournament. These under systems are hitting 75%!

Hope this gives you some incites, and best of luck, may the MADNESS BEGIN!!!EAST

Mr East Past Articles

Sleepless in Denver?
A lot is made of teams playing with no rest in the NBA. The question is does it matter? Here is my latest research and findings on NBA teams playing with ... read more

March Madness: Good, Bad and the Ugly
The NCAA Tournament is right around the corner. I thought i'd take a look at who has the bet winning percentage of all time in NCAA Tournament games. ... read more

Weekly Look at CFB Title Chasers
BCS Title Chasers - We are down to five unbeaten teams in NCAAF, and 12 teams with a single loss. The Oregon Ducks are the new #1 team in the latest BCS ... read more

Lay of the Line NFL Week 7
Another winning footabl week is now in the books, as both NCAAF and NFL football were winners for the week. We now turn to NCAAF week 8, and NFL week ... read more

Good and Bad Septembers, Does it Matter?
The Major League baseball Playoffs get started on Wednesday, so I thought I'd get you tuned in, to avoid the "trap" thinking that sends many ... read more

All Mr East Past Articles

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All Mr East Past Picks