Another Nite Owl NFL-X Double Winner (ATS and SU) Tonite (Fri 10PM)
Nite Owl has the SU and ATS winner of this week 4 NFL-X game, for 5 combined UNITS. Last nite we won both of our ATS and $ Line Double plays, both underdogs, on the Jets and Bengals, for a total of +11 units, as part of our 6-1 night in NFL-X. Congrats to those who joined us for this easy money. And last season in NFL WE FINISHED AT #1 ON THE TOP TEN LEADER BOARD IN UNITS WON. Get our main pick (3 units) in this game for just $25, or both picks with full write ups plus our other likely NFL-X pick, with a One Day NFL pass for just $35. But with us already having 5 CFB PICKS SAT (two for 5 units) and two Sunday, the BEST DEAL IS OUR 3 DAY ALL SPORTS PASS FOR $75.
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Nite Owl's ATS and $ Line CFB Double Play (Sun 3PM)
Nite Owl has got the SU and ATS winner of this early season CFB show down which TY is the biggest thing in Kentucky except for bourbon and the Kentucky Derby, and both of these picks, money line and ATS for a total 5 UNITS, are yours for just $35. But with us having MLB picks today and at least one other major CFB pick on Monday, OUR BEST DEALS ARE EITHER OUR 3 DAY CFB PASS FOR JUST $50 or our ONE DAY ALL SPORTS PASS FOR TODAY/SUNDAY, also for $50, which gives you all of our Sunday MLB picks as well.
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Nite Owl's Pac Ten Game of the Month (Sat 10PM)
We know it's early in the season for a CFB Game of the Month, but all of the planets, stars, moons, etc. line up just right for this easy early season winner, and it's yours for just $25. But with us expecting to have at least five CFB picks saturday, our two best deals are either our college football three day pass for just $50, which gives you two complimentary days of CFB (with our Sat CFB pass priced at $50) or our One Day All Sports Pass for Saturday, also for $50, which gives you all of our MLB and NFL-X picks that day at no extra charge (in addition to the $50 for CFB).
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Nite Owl's CFB opening week Upset Shocker (Sat 12PM)
Just $25 gets you our opening week CFB upset shocker, a game in which our side is getting substantial points but we believe has a good chance to win SU, so we also have them on money line, for a toal of 8 BIG UNITS, ATS and $ Line. But with us having at least five other CFB picks Sat, and already two picks posted for Sunday and one on Monday, our best deal for CFB this WE is our 3 day CFB pass for just $50, which gives you our picks for Sunday and Monday at no extra charge, since our one day CFB pass with Sat's loaded CFB card will also be $50.
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Nite Owl's Monday Nite Magic, College Style (Mon 4PM)
Night Owl has the winner of this major CFB intersectional game tonite, and it's yours for just $25. After you see how we did in CFB on Sat and Sunday, you won't want to miss this chance to pad your bankroll.
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Betting the Rest of Boston – LA Series
by: Nite Owl Sports
In Sunday’s newsletter we wrote an article about the advantages of using “in progress” adjusted series lines as a way to bet a heavy series favorite while still getting good line value. As stated in that article, in order to utilize this line value seeking strategy, you will need to have access to a sports "book" that allows series bets to be placed, at updated odds based on result(s) of prior game(s), during the series. In this sequel to that article, we are concentrating on playing the LA Lakers, who “went off” as ridiculous –180 or 185 series faves at the start of this series. But just to set the record straight, even though this two part article is mostly about betting strategies for taking and getting good line value on the Lakers in the upcoming games by betting them (at the adjusted series odds) to still win the series, we are not predicting the Lakers to win the series, nor did we ever. In fact, in the write up for our winning 5 unit pick on Boston in game 1, we stated that we leaned towards Boston to win the series (with 4 of the 7 games scheduled in Boston, if it goes 7 games), and that we recommended to our subscribers that they take Boston to win the series as a strong “line value play” at the generous "plus money” odds of +150>.
But we know that there are thousands of Top Ten customers and readers who loved LA to take the series before it started, many of whom still think LA will take this series (despite being down 0-2), and either didn’t make a series bet, or made only a small one, at the above mentioned ridiculous pre-series odds. We also recognize that there are some among the Boston supporters, who either took our advice to bet Boston for the series or did so on their own, but would like to reduce their “exposure” to an LA series comeback win, with the series moving to LA for the next three games, and LA coming off of that impressive closing burst to nearly pull out a win in game 2. Our in progress series betting strategy can also be used by those Boston supporters, as a "hedging" strategy, with Boston up 2-0 and LA now at plus odds of +120 to +130 for the series.
With the adjusted odds for LA to take the series having been improved somewhat (to –140 or 145) after Boston’s win in game 1, we suggested (in our Sunday article) that LA backers bet Lakers before game 2, at –145 or less, to take the series, but for only one unit, and hold back most of their money until after game 2, since the adjusted odds of –140 or 145 were not that great, and LA would not be "out of it" by any means even if they lost game 2, given the 2-3-2 format of the finals. We then went on to say that if LA did lose game 2, we would also suggest a larger series bet on LA (at the expected much better odds), for two units at “even money" and three units at “plus money."
Well, Laker fans, as we predicted in our 3 unit pick on Boston to win game 2, your team is down 0-2, but the adjusted series odds of +120> on Lakers are very good, so now is your time to put up or shut up!! If you wait until after game 3, it will be too late to get good line value on LA in the likely event of a Lakers game 3 win, after which the series odds will jump back up to LA being favored again, probably by –130>, while in the event of an unlikely but certainly possible Boston win in game 3, the series will be effectively lost for the Lakers, and there will little reason to bet them for the series, at any odds.
In our Sunday article, we pointed out that with the aforementioned 2-3-2 (home-road-home) format used for the NBA finals, the above strategy of phased in series bets on a team with a good chance to win the series (at improved odds, when they are down 0-1 and again, for more. if they go down 0-2 but have been competitive in at least one of the first two games, as the Lakers have been) worked well for us in a recent (Miami-Dallas) finals series and (in the following year's Detroit-SA series) was a last minute three point shot away from working for us two consecutive years. We also gave specific examples (that we won’t repeat here) which proved that just because a team is down 0-2 in the NBA finals in no way means they are “done,” especially a team as talented and well coached as the Lakers.
It will be interesting to see how this series continues to unfold, but don’t count on it being short or one-sided for either team. Despite us having made it look easy lately at Nite Owl Sports, by going 10-2 for +18 units for last two weeks on our NBA picks, including going 3-0 for +9 units on our winning money line and ATS picks on Boston in games 1 and 2, we probably will not even have an official pick for game 3, with the Lakers desperately needing a big win, and Boston possibly a bit relaxed after going up 2-0, but the Lakers an over-priced –9.5 points, thus requiring a double digit win to cover the spread, and Lakers a less than inspiring 1-2-1 ATS in their last four home playoff games, despite their undefeated SU home playoff record TY. And after the roller coaster rides of games 1 and 2, betting either the over or the under seems to be a “crap shoot.” So we suggest that for those still wanting to back the Lakers in the upcoming games, a much more rational approach is the aforementioned one of taking them NOW at the (temporarily) good plus odds to win the series, and then take each game one at a time, knowing that if the Lakers change the momentum by winning at least the first two at home, you have a good investment in a series play which will win you more than you risked if Lakers ultimately win the series.
Despite our “taking off” for game 3, we will likely have at least one side pick for each of the remaining games of this final series, so whether it’s just $25 for one of our individual picks or our one day NBA pass, or our new reduced rates for 3 days or 7 days of NBA playoff action, or OUR BEST DEAL, WITH NEW REDUCED RATE OF JUST $59 for all remaining NBA playoff games, you can't find better value in a sports handicapping service than Nite Owl Sports for the NBA playoffs.
Nite Owl Sports Past Articles
Exposing Bogus NFL-X Systems - Part 2
In an article published in the Top Ten newsletter last week, I explored a few of the more common systems used for betting NFL-X, particularly in week ... read more
Exposing Bogus NFL-X Systems
Anyone who has bet sports for any significant amount of time been exposed to numerous systems through the years, all claiming to be the key that unlocks ... read more
Getting Value Out of Heavy Faves in MLB
By this point of the season, anyone who bets MLB on a daily basis has probably already seen > 100 games where they look at the match-up of teams and ... read more
Going Under the Radar in AFL and WNBA
Now that the NBA playoffs have ended, many amateur sports handicappers simply "pack it in" until football season, not wanting to get involved ... read more
Betting Ugly on Under in NBA Playoffs
While it varies from year to year how well (or poorly) the overs or the unders do in the NBA playoffs, the one thing that is more consistent is that most ... read more
All Nite Owl Sports Past Articles
Nite Owl Sports Recent Past Picks
NFL Football
Miami Dolphins @ New Orleans Saints Thursday August 28, 2008 8:00 pm
With this being the final pre-season game for both teams, we don't expect either team to play its starers very long in this game. New Orleans is the beter team, playing at home, and after coming off of a disappointing season LY and losing its first NFL-X home game TY, we assume they ... read more
Nite Owl Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Nite Owl Sports
MLB Baseball
Florida Marlins @ Atlanta Braves Thursday August 28, 2008 7:10 pm
We like the over here for alot of the same reasons we like Florida, mostly because of the awful #s put up TY by Braves SP Charlie Morton, who is a dreadful 3-8 with a 6.4 ERA and 0-3 for 10.2 in his L3 starts, and is 0-6 with an 8.2 ERA at homne. Innaddition, he is 0-1 in his career ... read more
Nite Owl Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Nite Owl Sports
MLB Baseball
Florida Marlins @ Atlanta Braves Thursday August 28, 2008 7:10 pm
We like Florida here for alot of the same reasons we like the over, mostly because of the awful #s put up TY by Braves SP Charlie Morton, who is a dreadful 3-8 with a 6.4 ERA and 0-3 for 10.2 in his L3 starts, and is 0-6 with an 8.2 ERA at home. In addition, he is 0-1 in his career ... read more
Nite Owl Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Nite Owl Sports
NFL Football
Cincinnati Bengals @ Indianapolis Colts Thursday August 28, 2008 7:00 pm
Like many of our picks, this one is less a vote of confidence on the team we are "backing" (Cincy) as it is against their opponent and the pre-season game mindset of their coach (in this case the indy Colts and HC Tony Dungy, who has a crappy 10-19 ATS ... read more
Nite Owl Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Nite Owl Sports
NFL Football
Cincinnati Bengals @ Indianapolis Colts Thursday August 28, 2008 7:00 pm
Alot of the same reasoning used to support our ATS and money line picks on Cincy in this game can also be used to support the under cause here. Colts will not only be without Peyton Manning for this one, but backup QB Jim Sorgi has a bad knee and may also sit this one out. And ... read more
Nite Owl Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Nite Owl Sports
NFL Football
Cincinnati Bengals @ Indianapolis Colts Thursday August 28, 2008 7:00 pm
As pointed out in write up of our ATS pick on Bengals, the Colts are 0-3 SU and ATS last 3 years in their final pre-season game, all of them being against these Bengals, who are thus 3-0 SU and ATS in their final pre-season game. And despite Cincy's 1-2 pre-season record TY, ... read more
Nite Owl Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Nite Owl Sports
NFL Football
New York Jets @ Philadelphia Eagles Thursday August 28, 2008 6:30 pm
As was the case with our picks on Cincy and against Indy tonite, the coaching mindsets of both coaches, and the pre-season performance of their teams both onnthe field and ATS at the "pay window" reflecting their coach's mindset, is the main factor in handicapping this ... read more
Nite Owl Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Nite Owl Sports
NFL Football
New York Jets @ Philadelphia Eagles Thursday August 28, 2008 6:30 pm
In write up of our ATS pick on Jets in this game, we pointed out that Philly Coach Andy Reid, known for his losing pre-season record over the years and his team's frequent "no shows" in NFL-X games, has his worst mark has been in this week 4 "traditional" ... read more
Nite Owl Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Nite Owl Sports
NFL Football
Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills Thursday August 28, 2008 6:30 pm
We like the under here at a line of 34>, as we lean to the under in week 4 of NFL-X and these two coaches have a combined game 4 under record of 0-5 (with Detroit's Marinelli 0-2 under in week 4 since this is his third year as Lions' HC). Admittedly this may be "double ... read more
Nite Owl Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Nite Owl Sports
MLB Baseball
Cincinnati Reds @ Houston Astros Wednesday August 27, 2008 8:05 pm
We'll go with Houston and SP Oswalt, who has dominated Cincy over L 10 Y more than any other pitcher in MLB probably has dominated any other team in a long time, with a career record of about 20-1 vs Reds. In L3Y, he is 10-1 against reds, incl 2-0 TY and 6-0 at home L3Y+, with ... read more
Nite Owl Sports Bio and Picks | Articles By Nite Owl Sports
All Nite Owl Sports Past Picks