Betting Strategy on the short card + Thursday's preview.

by: IndianCowboy

Let me start off by saying I believe the college card has far more value than the NBA card. I have said it many times, but it is worth repeating again, if there is a short card on the NBA - the lines will be tight. Think about it - there are fewer games, greater time is spent on making those lines. If there are 3 such games, there are essentially only a total of 6 type of wagers that people are betting on in the nba - outside of prop bets. The Side/Total of each game - hence, 3x2 = 6 total wagers. Furthermore, do not feel like simply because a game is on television, you need to bet on it. If you do this for enjoyment, than yes, that does make sense. However, if you want to do it to win, betting on games simply because they are on TV, is not the best way to approaching gambling. Rather, betting on the best value, and an underdog that can win outright, a team that has revenge, or a conference game in which a team is coming off a loss - or a team coming off several losses and returning home all have more value than any game that is simply on television. Having said that, I believe the college card has far more value tonight but the NBA research is listed below.

NBA Injury Update

Miami vs. San Antonio - expect Ginobli to play once again. O'Neal of course is out.

Pacers vs. Bucks - Murphy is listed as doubtful and O'Neal is out for Indiana. Look for Mo Williams of the Bucks to likely play.

Nets vs. Warriors - Pietrus is probable for this game which will give the Warriors some much needed size and rebounding down low tonight.

NBA Thursday Research

Miami vs. San Antonio

Things can't get much worse for the Heat as this team continues to lose as they have no depth witht their injuries, they were already short on inside presence when Zo when out, now, considering that this team has no Shaq - not that he was pounding the minutes regardless - but still a lack of inside presence, truly hurts this team. Personally, I believe the Heat are the worst team in the league - after all, even the Twolves who have 7 wins have the youth and the vitality to compete and are on an up trend beating the Warriors on the road and the Suns at home - what vitality are resurgence have the Heat shown thus far having lost 14 straight. However, with nearly 75% of the public on the Spurs, that makes me feel uncomfortable and I'm likely staying away.

Nets vs. Golden State

Why folks show the Nets love is beyond me sometime as this is one of those teams such as the Cavs that you neither bet for them nor do you bet against them typically. They are simply an unpredictable team when it comes to ATS sides or totals. They have had a brutal west game road trip as they have lost a total of 6 games and on this road trip their last 3- including to the Clippers who are a top 30 power ranking team. The Nets beat the Warriors 100-95 last time out in New Jersey so this is a revenge game for the Warriors coming off a loss - a very dissappointing loss to the Twolves at home - which was a revenge game for the Twovles mind you. Golden State is a top 10 power ranking team that has not lost back to back games since dating back to 1/2 and 1/4 when they lost to Dallas on the road and New Orleans at home- both top 5 power ranking teams. I think this spot bodes well here for the warriors.

Indiana vs. Milwaukee

Although Indiana has injuries, this team still plays well without them as they are a top 20 team that won on the road at Philly although got blown away by Chicago - but that was expected given that the Bulls needed a breakout game. Indiana won between these 2 teams the last 4 times they played last year so Milwaukee does have a good deal of revenge for this game - but Milwaukee has lost its last 6 of 7 and although they were competitive against the Suns - a game that Vegas would have loved for them to cover and wanted them to cover given the line they set up (remember, if you think the dog is going to be active, the over is the smarter play rather than putting money on a bad team) - this team still fell short. I don't trust either team to cover or to score. This is a crapshoot for value in my opinion.

College Basketball Thursday

Michigan State vs. Northwestern

According to my power rankings I have Michigan State as a top 30 team and Northwestern as a top 200 team, and by those numbers I have Northwestern falling short by 9 - but honestly, I do not trust a Northwestern team that lost to Michigan at home by 10 but to this team's credit, they did lose by 12 to Wisconsin on the road, but also lost to top 150 Penn State at home by 11. A lean on Michigan State frankly as a top 30 team , but staying away. Something to note, this is the worst team that Michigan State has played thus far on the road this year.

Seton Hall vs. Providence

I have Seton Hall as a top 100 team on the road against a Providence team who is top 35. What does that mean? Well, that essentially means I have Seton Hall losing by 8 according to my spreadsheets. Seton Hall is the same team that comes off a big win over Louisville at home - but they could be in for a let down here. They beat both Louisville and South Florida by 10 at home to their credit and lost to top 20 Pitt and Maruqette by 14 and 5 on the road. Providence is undefeated at home, and they beat a top 50 Uconn team on the road by double-digits. I would love to take the dog here as I typically do, but, Providence has beat similary ranked teams by double-digits at home. Likely staying away.

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Yesterday's Analysis 3-0

Twolves/Suns Over 214.5 (POD) (Winner)

I don't have too much time for the write-up tody for the above reasons that came up and the game will start soon, but the point here is that Twolves played very well against the Suns early on in the first quarter of their last game and fell short. This team is starting to gell with Telfair and Jefferson and they are playing well and this showed when they won outright at Golden STate as basically double-digit underdogs. I expect them to get pumped today and have Minny rocking as win or lose, they should be an active dog today following my active dog/over theory and I expect this game to hit the mid 220's an go over and as long as I have a 10 point cushion I roll with my play and today is no exception. The over is 10-3 in Minny between these 2 teams and 6-2 following a straight up win for the Twolves meaning they are a young team that plays with more confidence with a most recent win - after all, they don't get many wins often as they have just 6 wins on the year.

Hornets -7.5 (Winner)

Have you wondered why this line has refused to budge being at -7.5 throughout the day? Well, that is due to New Orleans having double-revenge coming into this game as New Orleans beat this team with ease the first time they played them at home, and then Portland beat them in back to back ballgames at home in the Rose Garden. The Hornets are ahead in the West and one of the hottest teams in the NBA having won and covered their last 8 of 9 ballgames and the way they are winning at home has been striking scoring well over a 105 with Peja and Paul while playing great defense holding opponents to less than 95 points. This team has continued to blowout teams at home and although I think the Blazers are a solid team, and they very well could be competitive today, the Hornets have had this game marked for a while and I cannot see them not getting up against a team where they might lose 3 in a row to them and that being at home. The Hornets are 4-0 ATS at home as a favorite and the favorite is 6-0 ATS in this series of late.

UMASS +6.5 (Winner) (Would have had analysis, but something else caught my attention yesterday).
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Winning days summary

Winning 4 days in a Row.
Winning 17 of 23 Days in January (74%)
Winning 18 of 24 Days (75%)
7-2 This Week
---Monday: 2-1
---Tuesday: 2-1
---Wednesday: 3-0

Pod Summary

21 of 27 POD Winners. (78%)(5 in a Row)
January POD Run: 17-6 (73%) - Doing 1 POD per Day.
111-67 POD Run (61% since June 23rd - 1 POD per Day)
Best POD Run in the Nation.

Overall records summary

Basketball 2007: 99-66 (60%)
54-29 (62%) NBA Run &
NBA 2007: 66-41 (60%)
19-11 College Basketball Run (63%)(Last 17 Days)

IndianCowboy Past Articles

IC Wednesday NBA Research
7-3 Run! We come off a big 3-0 Sunday Sweep and 5-1 Overall Weekend. Let's keep it rolling as I look forward to going 5-2 on the College Baketball Season. ... read more

Full NFL and NBA Research
IC RESEARCH REPORT:Big Wins Yesterday with Auburn +8.5 over Georgia (POD) and TCU +17 Outright over Clemson in College Ball! Let's repeat the Winning ... read more

IC's Thursday Research
IC RESEARCH REPORT: 1-0 in College Football yesterday with a Winner with Kent State and ready to roll again today. Below is your free research for Thursday.  ... read more

IC Wednesday Research
IC RESEARCH REPORT: Today's Research Includes: Temple vs. Kent State (This is my POD). Central Michigan vs. Northern Illinois (Free pick). Sixers ... read more

Friday IC Research Report
IC RESEARCH REPORT: Most Detailed Research in the Business. Provided Everyday for free. NBANew Orleans vs. CharlotteI'm watching the Orlando vs. Philly ... read more

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College Football

Ball State Cardinals @ Central Michigan Chippewas Wednesday November 19, 2008 7:00 pm
This is a huge game.  Here you have a top 20 Ball State team (ranked 16th) hitting the highway to play Central Michigan who is 8-2.  Ball State note is 10-0 up to this point and 5-0 on the road. Of course, Central Michigan is 4-0 at home this year so something has to give. ... read more

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College Basketball

Nevada Wolf Pack @ San Diego Toreros Tuesday November 18, 2008 10:00 pm
This is a bad spot for San Diego for several reasons.  For one, they come off a nice win over Montana State so they are not as sharp as a team like San Diego that comes off a tough road loss to UNLV.  Remember, San Diego lost to this Nevada team last year 76-62 on the road.  ... read more

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NBA Basketball

Miami Heat @ Washington Wizards Tuesday November 18, 2008 7:00 pm
The Wizards are in a great spot today.  Granted, I wish Miami would have won on the road at Toronto so they would not be coming off a loss, but I had this game pegged early on as something that I would look into.  Look, the Wizards lost by 20 points to Miami on the road ... read more

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NBA Basketball

Phoenix Suns @ Utah Jazz Monday November 17, 2008 9:00 pm
Note, that there are a lot of "questionables' in this game.  Of course, this could just be coaches playing tricks with each other.  Either way, you have Barnes that will return from his suspension this game.  Of course, Nash is back after serving his suspension ... read more

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College Basketball

James Madison Dukes @ Davidson Wildcats Monday November 17, 2008 6:00 pm
We are 3-1 in College Basketball, let's keep it rolling.  I like the Dukes here for several reasons.  For one, they are returning 4 starters and 9 letterman overall.  They are under a new coach and he has them playing extremely well and remember Brady was the coach ... read more

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NBA Basketball

San Antonio Spurs @ Sacramento Kings Sunday November 16, 2008 9:00 pm
I like the under here for several reasons.  For one, Tony Parker is still out for this team.  And since, Parker's exit in the Miami game, these have been the scores for the Spurs:77@ Houston78@ Milwaukee92 against NY at home82 against Miami (Parker left the first quarter ... read more

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College Basketball

Long Beach St @ Wisconsin Badgers Sunday November 16, 2008 4:00 pm
Long Beach State is the same team that went to the NCAA Tourney last year and ended up facing Tennessee in the first round.  Look, Long Beach State is a good team.  This team only fell short 65-75 to a solid BYU team on the road as 19.5 dogs.  Why in the world can ... read more

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NFL Football

Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers Sunday November 16, 2008 1:00 pm
I have made a committment to selecitivity and we are sticking to it.  After all, we are 1-0 on the week in football given Kent State and I am not forcing plays here as I would much rather go 1-0 over the course of 3 days than go 3-2 over the course of 3 days.  After all, ... read more

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College Basketball

TCU Horned Frogs @ Clemson Tigers Saturday November 15, 2008 8:00 pm
Long story short here, I should have been on TCU in their first game of the year against Western Michigan when they won that game outright.  Clemson has been consistently overrated each year and there is no reason they should be favored by 17 points after getting beat by Hofstra ... read more

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NBA Basketball

New Jersey Nets @ Atlanta Hawks Saturday November 15, 2008 7:00 pm
I have always been a fan of home and homes.  In this way, you get to take the team that just lost and take them to cover the next game.  Such is the case with the Hawks.  Don't forget, I have done this for the past four years and over that time, doing such a home and ... read more

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