Betting NBA Late Rounds

by: Nite Owl Sports

As we now start the final two rounds of the NBA playoffs, it gets harder to find value on either team and moré difficult to go against their opponent, and for the most part, betting the over or the under is a “crap shoot.” In these rounds, there are lots of games priced in that hard to handicap point spread range which we call “no man’s land,” where the home team is favored by 4.5 to 8.5 points, just like last night’s Boston – Det game at 4.5 and tonite’s LA-SA game at –7. This also presents a dilemma for us as professional handicappers with clients, as we don’t want to force picks on these high profile games where we don't feel strongly enough about either the side or total in the game to have an official pick, but we know that our clients will be disappointed if they get nothing at all when we don't have an official pick, and like in last night’s game, we usually have some opinions and betting strategies to recommend to our NBA clients on these games, even when we don’t have an official pick. We recently faced this dilemma last Friday in game 6 of the SA-NO series, where we had strong recommendations to take SA over 95 on the individual team totals line, and to tease SA to Lakers in their game 6 at Utah (on whom we had a strong winning pick), even though but we did not have an official pick on SA because we thought 7 points was too many to give. Unfortunately, we just did not post any pick on the SA game, so our Top Ten clients were unaware of our strong (and winning) recommendation on SA over, unless they inferred same from our having recommended the same in the previous (game 4) series match-up in SA. So what do we do to still get some value out of these games and help our clients make some money from them, which will make watching them even more enjoyable?

Partly in response to my encouragement, Top Ten is working on a feature allowing site cappers like us to post a "blog" on our "home page" on the Top Ten site, and have that blog forwarded to our clients without having to make an official pick. However, until that feature is implemented, the only way we can pass on our opinions and betting strategies to our clients for one of these high profile NBA playoff games on which we don't have a strong enough opinion to make an official pick is to post a one unit "no count" free pick for our "least weak" opinion on the picks available for the game in the Top Ten picks menu, which is what we did on last night’s Boston-Detroit game, with our winning one unit "no count" free pick/recommendation on the first half under 87. But what was more significant than that opinion was the betting strategies we recommended to our NBA clients for that game, primarily the following  --five bets, four of them teasers. To quote from our write up:

“ we prefer "nibbling" at the under in three small wagers, of one unit each -- first half under 87, a Boston to under teaser, with Boston teased to +1 if possible or at least down to -1/2 or pick, and totals line teased up to at least 177, and a Detroit to under teaser, with Detroit teased dup to +9> and totals line teased up to at least 177. But our stronger teaser strategy (and best recommendation for this game) is to do two "progressive" teasers of two units each, both to Lakers in tomorrow night's game 1 of their series vs SA --specifically, tease both Boston and Detroit  tonite to Lakers tomorrow night, teased down to -2 or less, in two separate two team, two unit teasers. That way, you are guaranteed to have at least one "live" teaser, and most likely two to the Lakers (at -2 or better) tomorrow night. That being the case, there would be little need to bet the Lakers at -7 (we like Lakers to beat SA, but are not wild about laying 6.5 or 7 points on them)."

 With last night’s spread at 4.5, most of our clients were able to get Detroit teased up to +9.5, a half point winner. So with both Boston and the under being easy teaser winners, we had three wins last night (on the first half under and on  the two side/total teasers), and with  “progressive teasers” on Boston-LA and Detroit-LA, we have two “live teasers” to LA at –2 or better tonite. So that’s 3 wins for +3 units plus two likely teaser wins tonite for four more units, on a game in which our only  “official pick” was a one unit free pick/opinion on the first half under – not bad.

We also gave some parameters for betting either team on the second half line in last night’s game, but neither team fit those parameters based on the HT score and second half line, so there was no second half play.

Tonite we have an unusual betting strategy to add to our live teasers on Lakers at –2 or better. While Spurs’ troubles on the road, especially against playoff caliber teams like LA, are well documented, what is not generally  known is how well they have done in those road games vs good teams vs the first half line, only to usually self-destruct in the second half, usually due to poor shooting. In fact, looking at SA’s 12 road games vs “A” teams since March 1, including playoffs (except for relatively meaningless” game 4 of Phoenix series where they held a 3-0 lead), SA is 10-1-1 ATS vs first half line in those games, but 3-9 ATS vs both the second half line and the full game line. So the message is clear – bet SA tonite on the first half line at +3.5 or +4, and then (unless you already have Lakers teased down to –2 or better for the game) bet Lakers in second half, assuming first half score and second half line gives you good line value on LA, and there has been no game ending injury to any key Laker player.

As you can see from the foregoing, we put a ton of effort and detail into our game write-ups, even when we don’t have an “official pick,” and as a result, our clients get a lot of “bang for their buck.” With the start of the conference finals, we just reduced our price to $99 for remainder of NBA playoffs, as well as our prices for shorter term NBA packages, and we urge you to give us a chance to help you make these NBA playoffs an even more pleasant and profitable experience for you.  

Nite Owl Sports Past Articles

2008 MLB World Series Preview
This article is the final sequel to Nite Owl's two earlier MLB playoff previews (of the four divisional playoff series, and then both league championship ... read more

Red Sox on the Ropes
The Tampa Rays are now one game away from a World Series "date" with the Philadelphia Phillies, after pounding the defending World Champion ... read more

2008 MLB Championship Series Playoff Preview
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2008 MLB Playoff Preview – Divisional series
For most baseball fans, this is the most exciting time of the year, especially for fans of the “elite eight” teams that have earned the right ... read more

Using Second Half Bets for Line Value
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