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Baseball's Overlooked Edge: Speed

by: Bryan Leonard Sports

There’s been a huge emphasis on power in baseball over the last decade. Certainly there’s been a lot focus on bulk and home runs, speed as an extremely important, and often overlooked, aspect of winning baseball.

Speed isn’t simply stolen bases, although that’s one part of the equation. Speed is also the ability of a player to go from first to third, or turning a single into a double. And defense in the outfield. And speed is a huge asset, along with on base percentage, with respects to one of the rarest and most important facets of a successful team – a good leadoff hitter.

The Boston Red Sox added two huge speed additions to their team this season: Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford. Granted, Ellsbury has been with the team since their 2007 World Series title squad, but he was basically injured pretty much all of last season. His return to health, and productive play in the leadoff spot, has been a key in their surge after that 2-10 start and back to back sweeps at Yankee stadium this week and last month.

A few years ago the NY Mets struggled badly and got off to an embarrassing start this week despite a ton of money dished out for star players. That Mets team had Jose Reyes as a leadoff hitter. Despite a decent batting average, in his first 14 at bats he had zero walks in the previous season, in 220 plate appearances for the Mets he had 5 walks. That’s ridiculous. I don’t care if this guy is faster than Vince Coleman and Willie McGee combined, his on base percentage is a joke and he doesn’t belong anywhere near the top of the order. You need to have guys get on base at the top of the order, more so than speed. A lack of on base capability will choke your offense.

By contrast, a good on base percentage player WITH speed is the best of all leadoff hitters, such as Ichiru. The Oakland A’s are currently in a terrible slump, one of the worst offensive teams in the game, and they suffer from awful on-base production atop the order.  A good leadoff batter is an extremely valuable part of the makeup of a team. Look at the Cubs, a team that fizzled for several years with problems at leadoff, despite a powerful home run lineup.   

Speed also enhances defense in the outfield, something that is often overlooked. A speedy outfielder will run down fly balls that might otherwise be hits, which decreases the amount of pitchers a hurler has to throw. I recall a game where Alex Rodriguez boot a ball that could have been a game ending double play in the ninth inning against the Red Sox. As a result, Mariano Rivera had to throw 39 pitches in a loss. A quick one, two, three inning versus a 39-pitch inning is a huge difference for a pitcher – not just one game, but the next few, as in that example, when will Rivera be rested enough to pitch again? Certainly not the next day.

Defense and speed helps the starting and relief staff as well as the offense.  Be careful wagering on teams with flawed leadoff hitters or a lack of speed/defense in the outfield, especially if they’re a favorite playing in a big park. Speed can be a very important part of the makeup of a team.


Bryan Leonard Sports Past Articles

The Zig Zag Theory
Let’s talk about zigzags. No, that’s not some ski slope maneuver. Nor is it someone who says one thing and then does another. Sports bettors ... read more

NBA Playoffs Betting
The NBA playoffs are off and running. There are a lot of ways to analyze who has the edge, from matchups, key statistics (rebounding, turnovers), spread ... read more

NBA Personnel Changes and Lineups
Like a stock broker, a good handicapper has to keep up with the changes that take place on and off the court. This is particularly true this time of year. ... read more

NBA Embarrassment
Many teams get embarrassed during an NBA season, even the playoffs, which are approaching. After all, it's a long season and even good teams get smacked ... read more

The NBA Stretch Run: Does Anybody Care?
Does anyone really care in the NBA? I'm not talking about fans, I'm referring to the players. Certainly a lot of players have pride and want to give their ... read more

All Bryan Leonard Sports Past Articles


Bryan Leonard Sports Past Picks

Bryan Leonard Sports Bryan Leonard Sports
NBA Basketball

Los Angeles Clippers @ San Antonio Spurs Tuesday May 15, 2012 9:35 pm
LA Clippers at San AntonioTerrible spot for the Clippers who had to go the distance with Memphis and win a short handed game on the road just to advance. The Spurs are the vastly more experienced team and they own a major rest advantage. The line is high for a reason and unlike last ... read more

Bryan Leonard Sports Bryan Leonard Sports
MLB Baseball

Cleveland Indians @ Minnesota Twins Monday May 14, 2012 8:10 pm
Cleveland at MinnesotaThe Twins have finally gotten to the point where they are producing value. To make Pavano a sizable home dog against the slumping offense of the Indians is simply a mistake. Pavano, a former Indian, has a career ERA of 2.83 against the Tribe. Gomez has a bright ... read more

Bryan Leonard Sports Bryan Leonard Sports
MLB Baseball

Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox Sunday May 13, 2012 2:10 pm
Kansas City at ChicagoHere we get the better starter and a plus money price. Danny Duffy is starting to come into his own as the best starter on this Kansas City staff. He fared very well in his only career start against the White Sox and we expect another strong performance here. Phillip ... read more

Bryan Leonard Sports Bryan Leonard Sports
MLB Baseball

Cleveland Indians @ Boston Red Sox Sunday May 13, 2012 1:35 pm
Cleveland at BostonJustin Masterson came up in the Boston organization and he was traded a few years ago to Cleveland in the Victor Martinez deal. We know Masterson has never forgotten that. He gets especially up for facing his old team with a 1.95 career ERA against them.Daniel ... read more

Bryan Leonard Sports Bryan Leonard Sports
NBA Basketball

Denver Nuggets @ Los Angeles Lakers Saturday May 12, 2012 10:30 pm
 Denver at Los AngelesThe Nuggets have made a nice comeback to even this series but their season is likely to end tonight. Home teams in game sevens are always a positive play and the line in this game hasn't been inflated. The return of Meta World Peace and the undressing of ... read more

Bryan Leonard Sports Bryan Leonard Sports
MLB Baseball

Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers Friday May 11, 2012 10:10 pm
Colorado at Los AngelesLow total in a Jamie Moyer game is always a solid reason to play the Over. Moyer has a lifetime 5.50 ERA in his 72 inning career against the Dodgers. And keep in mind much of that was in his prime. Moyer is a crafty pitcher but his best days are behind him.Capuano ... read more

Bryan Leonard Sports Bryan Leonard Sports
MLB Baseball

New York Mets @ Miami Marlins Friday May 11, 2012 7:10 pm
New York at MiamiLarge pitching edge in this one for the underdog as Santana has a career ERA of 1.46 in 68 lifetime innings against the Marlins. Well aware that the Mets will be seeing Buehrle for the first time but at this price the Mets are well worth a wager. Miami is playing ... read more

Bryan Leonard Sports Bryan Leonard Sports
MLB Baseball

Houston Astros @ Pittsburgh Pirates Friday May 11, 2012 7:05 pm
Houston at PittsburghAs good as McDonald has been this season we can't see the Pirates being a favorite of this size over anybody. Pittsburgh doesn't score enough offensively to be a sizable favorite and we're not sure that Houston doesn't have the pitching advantage. Norris has ... read more

Bryan Leonard Sports Bryan Leonard Sports
NBA Basketball

Chicago Bulls @ Philadelphia 76ers Thursday May 10, 2012 7:00 pm
Chicago at PhiladelphiaThe Bulls defense came through last time out but that may not be enough to avoid elimination tonight. The Sixers have shot 32% the last three games and have still held their own against this shorthanded Chicago team. Now back at home we expect the Sixers to ... read more

Bryan Leonard Sports Bryan Leonard Sports
MLB Baseball

San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers Wednesday May 9, 2012 10:10 pm
San Francisco at Los AngelesWhile the Dodgers have gotten off to the better start to the season the Giants are every bit as good as this LA team. Lincecum started the year slowly but he's put it all together as of late. Billingsley on the other hand is regressing. Both starters have ... read more