An Important Key to NFL Handicapping

by: Evan Altemus

One of the tools that most bettors don't use to prepare for the NFL regular season is the season over/under win totals for each NFL team.  However, these "rankings" let the betting public know what the oddsmakers think about each team in relation to the rest of the league.  It's essentially an inside glimpse into the best ranking available to the public without doing the work yourself.  These "power ratings" are much more valuable than any other ranking in a preview magazine.  It should be noted that these win totals are closer together than in previous years, meaning that oddsmakers think that there is more parity in the NFL this season.  

The linesmakers in Las Vegas think that San Diego, Indianapolis, New Orleans, Green Bay, Dallas, and Baltimore are the best teams going into this season, and they think that St. Louis, Detroit, and Buffalo are going to be the worst teams in the league.  I disagree slightly with a few teams.  I feel that San Diego and New Orleans are not going to meet oddsmakers expectations.  San Diego should make the playoffs but don't be surprised if New Orleans doesn't.  The Saints had everything go right for them last season, including lucky bounces and breaks in a few regular season games, as well as some good scheduling spots and injuries with opponents.  The Chargers have the luxury of playing in one of the worst conferences in the NFL, so they should be able to get nine or ten wins.  However, Kansas City and Oakland should be slightly better and steal a win or two from San Diego.  I agree that St. Louis and Detroit will be at the bottom of the league, but Buffalo may be slightly better than oddsmakers think because of a new coach who might rejuvenate the team, causing veterans to play harder than before.  The Bills have several holes to fill though, and Trent Edwards hasn't proven to be a good quarterback.   

Here are the power rankings according to oddsmakers based on their season over/under win totals:
1. San Diego, Indianapolis, New Orleans (10.5 WINS)
4.  Baltimore, Dallas, Green Bay (10 WINS)
7.  Atlanta, New England, New York Jets (9.5 WINS)
10.  San Francisco, New York Giants (9 WINS)
12.  Houston, Miami, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh (8.5 WINS)
16.  Arizona, Chicago, Cincinnati, Tennessee (8 WINS)
20.  Washington (7.5 WINS)
21.  Denver, Jacksonville, Seattle (7 WINS)
24.  Carolina, Kansas City, Oakland (6.5 WINS)
27.  Cleveland, Tampa Bay (5.5 WINS)
29.  Detroit, Buffalo (5 WINS)
31.  St. Louis (4.5 WINS)
****NOTE THAT MINNESOTA DOES NOT HAVE A WIN TOTAL BECAUSE OF THE BRETT FAVRE SITUATION****
(WIN TOTALS WERE TAKEN FROM BOOKMAKER.COM)

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