Alternate Ways to Bet NFL Playoff Games

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Alternate Ways to Bet Today's NFL Playoff Games

by: Nite Owl Sports

Anyone who has made many totals bets in the past few weeks has probably had his share of frustration. With all due apologies to those who may have been "bitten in the ass" by one or more of these games, let me mention a couple.

In last weekend's four divisional round NFL playoff games, over bettors were frustrated in 3 of the 4 games, due mostly to unexpectedly poor offensive showings by 3 of the teams competing in those games - 17 points by San Diego's not so "super-charged" offense, and a pathetic 3 points by both Balt's predictably "vanilla" offense and (shockingly) also 3 by Tony Romo and the Dallas Cowboys (and they didn't have Romo's former girlfriend, Jessica Simpson, to blame for their ‘no show" this time). And this WE in the two championship games, we have one predicted shootout in New Orleans (with a high totals line of 53) with the other, Jets at Indy, expected to be a "grinder" dominated by the defenses and thus with a low totals line (opened at 40, dropped to 39 with heavy action on the under during the week, and now back up to 40 as most casual bettors just wanting some "action" on the game typically go with the over in such high profile games).

So, what to do? While most fans who will be watching these games want some action on one of the sides and/or the total, there are some good reasons not to bet either, but the alternative of "sitting on the sidelines" without any action on these games is not too exciting. However, it may be that the best way to get value out of these difficult to handicap games is to bet the under or the over for one or both of the teams involved, using individual team totals lines, either exclusively or in addition to a side bet and/or a totals bet on the game, or one or more "teaser" bets.

Unfortunately, not all readers of the Top Ten NL have access to individual team totals lines, and those that don't should find a sports book that does offer such lines. While not all offshore sports books offer individual team totals betting and most "local books" don't, except for the Super Bowl, the one that most "players" use (which posts individual team totals lines for all NFL, NBA and major college FB games) for individual team totals is bookmaker.com. But this article assumes that you do have access to individual team totals lines, and is a "case study," focusing on the Indy-Jets game, and how taking the over or the under for one or both of the teams involved in that playoff game may be a better way to go than playing either full game total or laying more than a full TD to get Indy, the "better" team with the home field advantage, or taking the Jets, a "live" dog of a full TD or more which is playing well but in our opinion his very fortunate to even be in this game, which is in a very hostile venue for them.

Although individual team totals lines are not typically released until game day, even this far into the playoffs when the books have had the full game and first half totals lines "up" all week, we can pretty much predict what they will be, based on the point spread and the full game totals line. And in this case, with the consensus totals line being at 40 with Indy at -8, we can pretty much figure Indy's totals line to be 23.5 or 24, and the Jets to be 16 or maybe even as low as 15.5. So if you like Indy, another way of betting the Colts (rather than laying more than a TD) is to take them Over and/or the Jets under on their respective individual team totals lines. Or if you kind of like the Over but are afraid the Jets offense won't hold up its "end of the bargain" to push the final score over 40 points, then just take Indy over the 23.5 or 24 on their individual team totals line, and don't worry about what the Jets do or don't do on offense, or Indy winning by just 7 and not covering the spread. Of course, it's crucial to get good "numbers" when playing individual team totals, and we would not recommend playing Indy over a line any higher than 24, or the Jets under any line lower than 16.

Another way to play this game, if you are not sure about which side or total to take but you have a "lean" one way or the other and want some action, is to tease the team you like to one or both of the totals lines. If you like Indy because you believe they will score more easily than expected against the Jets and/or that the Jets will not score much against the very good but under-rated Colts defense, then teasing Indy down to -1 or even -1/2 point with the Over (teased down to 33) and maybe even to the Under as well (teased up to 47) would be a good way to go. On the other hand, if you expect the Jets to keep the score low and the game reasonably close, then a Jets-Under teaser is your best bet, with Jets teased up to +15> and the total teased up to 47. And for those of you who don't have access to individual team totals lines, using one or more teasers may be the best way to go in this game.

So hopefully the foregoing will give you some alternate ways of betting these games, enjoying them and most importantly, cashing in on them.

But note that while we have two picks on the Jets-Indy game (two of five NFL picks posted so far for today), they are by no means our strongest ones today, as we have 3 picks in the "late game" between Minny and NO, one for five units, and a big 4 UNIT side Play of the Day pick in one of the two early NBA games. And just in case you haven't noticed, we are sizzling with our big picks lately, hitting 62% of them for +126 units over the last 2.5 months, earning us the #2 spot on the POD L/B. So we suggest a One Day All Sports Pass, for just $49, which will get you all five or more of our NFL playoff picks today, our strong early NBA pick, and any other picks that we have in our other two currently "active' sports, college hoops and NHL. We'd love to have you with us today, but whatever you decide, good luck, bet smart, and enjoy the games.

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